AUD/USD Price Analysis – April 08, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair maintained its upward trend, remaining bullish around 0.6047 after briefly recovering to 0.6128 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. However, the US dollar continues to strengthen against the Australian Dollar (AUD), driven by increasing concerns about a potential recession in the United States.
These worries are amplified by US President Donald Trump's tariff policies, which are adding to market uncertainty and weighing on investor sentiment.
Impact of US-China Trade War on Australia's Economy and the Australian Dollar
However, the ongoing US-China trade war is having a significant impact on market sentiment. Last Friday, China announced a large 34% counter-tariff on US goods, which will take effect this Thursday, as a response to President Trump’s tariffs.
This rise in trade tensions between the two biggest economies in the world is expected to harm global trade, with Australia being particularly affected since China is its largest trading partner.
As China reacts to the situation, there are growing concerns that Australia’s economy will suffer the most from these trade disputes, leading to further pressure on the value of the Australian Dollar.
US Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy and Its Impact on the US Dollar and AUD
On the other hand, speculation surrounding the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy has added to the uncertainty. Following the mounting trade tensions, traders are increasingly betting that the Fed will implement aggressive interest rate cuts to counteract the economic repercussions.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a nearly 65% chance of a rate cut in May, with futures pointing to a total of 100 basis points worth of rate reductions by December.
This expectation of looser US monetary policy could undermine the value of the US Dollar to some extent, but the broader risk-off sentiment due to trade uncertainties may prevent the AUD from gaining any strong traction.
Reserve Bank of Australia's Easing Policy and Its Impact on the Australian Dollar
On the Australian front, the outlook is similarly clouded. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to follow suit with the global trend of interest rate cuts. The RBA is set to meet in May, and analysts expect a 25 basis points rate cut, with the possibility of a larger 50 basis points reduction.
This growing speculation surrounding the RBA’s easing policy is contributing to the weakening of the AUD against the USD.
The Aussie Dollar remains vulnerable as markets anticipate further rate cuts from the central bank to bolster the struggling Australian economy, which could further widen the interest rate differential between Australia and the US.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
AUD/USD is currently trading at $0.60591, showing early signs of recovery after last week’s steep drop. The pair briefly tested support around $0.59300 before bouncing back above the $0.60376 level, which now serves as a critical short-term pivot.
The bounce coincides with mild bullish divergence on the RSI (currently at 42.27), suggesting a tentative return in buyer interest. However, the broader structure remains fragile. The 50 EMA at $0.62230 continues to slope downward, capping any strong bullish momentum.
From a Fibonacci perspective, the pair is struggling near the 23.6% retracement at $0.60388. A break above $0.61068—the 38.2% retracement—would bolster bullish sentiment and expose higher resistance at $0.61598 and $0.62138.
On the downside, immediate support rests at $0.59821, followed by $0.59307. A breach below those levels could send AUD/USD to test deeper lows near $0.58792.
Traders will want to see a sustained move above $0.61068 to confirm follow-through buying. Until then, any upside moves should be viewed cautiously and within the context of a broader bearish trend.
The RSI still hovers below the midline, while the EMA structure favors bears, leaving the recovery in question unless momentum improves decisively above $0.61385.
The risk-reward favors short-term longs above $0.60376, but upside targets should remain conservative unless we see a daily close above $0.61598.
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- GOLD Price Analysis – April 08, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – April 08, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices (XAU/USD) have surged back above the $3,000 mark, reaching an intraday high of $3,055 level amid escalating geopolitical tensions and shifting Federal Reserve rate expectations.
However, the renewed strength in gold was driven by a combination of technical recovery and rising global uncertainties, particularly the intensifying trade war between the United States and China.
U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened a 50% tariff on Chinese imports, and China has promised to "fight to the end." These tensions are increasing global uncertainty, driving up demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
U.S. Economic Uncertainty and Weakening Dollar Drive Gold's Upward Momentum
Moreover, the upward rally is also tied to the broader market environment, which was uncertain. As stocks in Europe and the U.S. recover, investors are facing challenges in bond markets and changes in U.S. interest rates.
The CME FedWatch tool shows that traders expect the Fed to cut rates in 2025, a sharp shift from last week's neutral outlook.
This uncertainty surrounding the U.S. economy has also led to a weakening of the U.S. dollar. With the possibility of rate cuts increasing, demand for the greenback remains subdued.
This trend has given gold further momentum, as investors seek out safe-haven assets amid a declining dollar and uncertain global economic prospects.
Gold Reserves Increase in West Australia, Supporting Bullish Gold Sentiment
On the supply side, West Australia’s Gold Road Resources has reported an increase in gold reserves at its flagship asset, signaling a promising outlook for future gold production.
The company’s announcement that its open-pit mine may hold more gold than initially estimated has added to the bullish sentiment surrounding gold. This comes at a time when global geopolitical and economic uncertainties are pushing the metal’s price higher.
Traders Anticipate Fed Rate Cuts, Boosting Gold Market
Traders are keenly watching the upcoming Fed meetings, with a growing consensus that the central bank may reduce interest rates in the near term. As of Tuesday, the CME FedWatch tool shows a 31.7% chance of a rate cut in the May meeting, while the probability of a rate cut in June is nearly 97%.
These expectations of easier monetary policy are bolstering the gold market, as lower interest rates make non-yielding assets like gold more attractive.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold is attempting a recovery, trading at $3,012.81 after finding short-term support just above the $2,990 level. The rebound follows a steep sell-off that pulled the metal from $3,152 highs into the $2,953–$2,989 range, where buyers stepped in.
Price has now reclaimed the $2,990 pivot, flipping near-term bias back toward a cautious bullish stance. With the $3,034 resistance now in focus, a sustained push through this level could invite fresh momentum toward $3,084 and potentially $3,152.
The RSI has edged up to 45.69, reflecting improved, but not yet strong, upside momentum. Price remains below the 50-period SMA at $3,071, suggesting the broader trend remains technically challenged. Traders should monitor whether gold can maintain intraday strength above $2,990. A break back below this key level would open downside exposure toward $2,953 and possibly $2,932.
Until price convincingly clears the $3,034–$3,071 resistance zone, upside should be treated with tactical caution. Momentum remains reactive to news flow, and traders may prefer confirmation via volume or breakout candles above $3,034 before adding new positions.
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- AUD/USD Price Analysis – April 08, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – April 07, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices (XAU/USD) have struggled to maintain their upward momentum, recently dropping to the 2,972 level. Despite a brief rebound, the precious metal is currently trading with modest losses as the European session begins.
This decline is driven by persistent concerns over a potential global recession and escalating geopolitical tensions, which continue to weigh on investor sentiment, limiting gold’s ability to gain traction.
US Dollar Weakness and Fed Rate-Cut Speculation Supports Gold
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has started the week on a weaker note, fueled by expectations that a tariffs-driven slowdown in the US economy could prompt the Federal Reserve (Fed) to resume rate cuts soon. This, along with a sharp drop in US Treasury bond yields, has provided support to gold.
Despite a strong US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report and hawkish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, investors are pricing in multiple rate cuts this year.
As a result, the USD has struggled to attract buyers, while gold has seen a brief recovery from its recent lows.
However, gold's recovery lacks momentum, as investors remain cautious, unwinding bullish positions to cover losses from a broader market sell-off.
This caution stems from fears that the recent pullback in gold, after reaching all-time highs last week, may not be over yet.
Geopolitical Risks and the Global Trade War Weigh on Investor Sentiment
On the geopolitical front, the widening global trade war has raised concerns about a potential global economic recession, leading to an extended sell-off in equity markets.
This risk-off sentiment caused traders to liquidate long positions in gold, seeking liquidity to cover losses elsewhere. Geopolitical tensions have continued to rise, particularly with the ongoing trade dispute between the US and China.
US President Donald Trump’s decision to impose 10% tariffs on all imported goods, with 54% tariffs specifically on China, has raised fears of a long trade war. In response, China imposed additional tariffs on US goods, escalating the conflict.
These ongoing trade tensions have created more uncertainty, boosting gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.
Moreover, data from the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) reveals that China increased its gold reserves for the fifth month in a row in March, signaling concerns about the economic impact of rising geopolitical risks.
China’s gold holdings grew by 0.09 million troy ounces, highlighting the growing importance of gold as a safe-haven asset during times of global uncertainty.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold prices are under pressure following a decisive breakdown below both the ascending trendline and the $3,046 horizontal support, which previously acted as a pivot area for bulls. After slipping as low as $3,003, buyers briefly stepped in near the 200-period EMA, but the rebound lacked conviction.
Price is currently pinned under the $3,046 resistance zone and struggling to reclaim ground above $3,062. This resistance band, once supportive, now acts as a ceiling for any meaningful recovery. The technical landscape has turned bearish unless gold reclaims and closes above the $3,062 level.
The broader market structure also reflects caution, as the 50 EMA at $3,101.72 is now sloping downward, providing additional headwind. Meanwhile, the RSI sits at 39.81, suggesting bearish momentum is in play but not yet stretched enough to imply oversold conditions.
A break below the $3,013 handle would signal renewed selling pressure, opening the path toward the psychological support at $3,000 and possibly extending to $2,970, the next major horizontal demand zone.
Bulls would need to regain control above $3,062 to neutralize the bearish bias and make a case for a push toward the 50 EMA and $3,087. Until that happens, any upside moves are likely to be viewed as relief rallies rather than the start of a sustained uptrend.
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- EUR/USD Price Analysis – April 01, 2025
EUR/USD Price Analysis – April 07, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair gained bullish traction and edged higher, trading above the 1.1050 level.
However, the reason for its upward trend could be attributed to the overall weakness in the US dollar, as well as improving market sentiment in the Eurozone.
Investors are reacting to mixed economic data from both regions, but the recent optimism around the European economy is giving the euro some support.
At the same time, uncertainty over the US Federal Reserve's interest rate path is putting pressure on the dollar, allowing the EUR/USD pair to climb gradually.
Eurozone Retail Sales Growth and Germany's Industrial Sector Struggles Impact Euro Sentiment
On the data front, Eurozone retail sales grew by 2.3% year-over-year in February, outpacing market expectations of 1.8%.
However, retail sales showed slower-than-expected growth on a monthly basis, with a mere 0.3% increase compared to the expected 0.5%.
These figures highlight some resilience in consumer demand but also point to some potential weakness in the broader economic recovery.
Meanwhile, Germany’s industrial sector has taken a step back. The industrial production in Europe's largest economy contracted by 1.3% in February, marking a sharp contrast to the 2% rebound in January.
In the meantime, the year-on-year industrial output plunged 4%, further indicating the ongoing struggles in the industrial sector.
Although Germany’s trade balance for February showed a slight improvement, coming in at EUR 17.7 billion, it fell short of market expectations, contributing to the cautious sentiment surrounding the Euro.
US Dollar Struggles Amid Recession Fears and Rate Cut Expectations
On the other side of the Atlantic, the US dollar continues to face headwinds amid growing concerns of an impending recession. Despite a slight recovery, the USD struggles to capitalize on the momentum and starts the week weaker.
However, the key factor weighing on the dollar is the increasing probability that the US economy might enter a recession, which could force the Federal Reserve to resume its rate-cutting cycle.
The markets are currently pricing in the likelihood of four quarter-point rate cuts in 2025, which has led to a decline in US Treasury bond yields, further undermining the greenback.
US-EU Trade Tensions Weigh on EUR/USD Outlook Amid Economic Data Focus
Another factor that has been impacting the EUR/USD pair is the growing risk of a trade war between the US and the European Union. The EU is planning to introduce retaliatory tariffs on US goods in response to US duties on steel, aluminum, and cars.
These trade tensions are adding more uncertainty to global markets. While this could increase demand for the safe-haven US dollar, it may also limit the euro’s ability to rise further.
Looking ahead, traders will be watching economic data from the Eurozone, such as German industrial production, trade balance, and the Sentix Investor Confidence report.
However, the main factor likely to drive the EUR/USD pair in the near term will be how global trade tensions unfold, as any escalation could quickly shift market sentiment and affect both currencies.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD is attempting to reclaim upside momentum against the U.S. dollar following a healthy pullback from $1.10484. Price action remains supported by a firm uptrend structure, with a rising trendline dating back to mid-March and the 50 EMA at $1.08619 now acting as dynamic support.
After rebounding off the $1.09519 level—a key horizontal and psychological zone—EUR/USD is showing renewed buying interest as it tests the pivot area near $1.1000. The recovery has paused just shy of immediate resistance at $1.10484, and a clean breakout above this zone would clear the path toward $1.11480 and $1.12208.
RSI is currently at 59.40 and turning higher, suggesting building momentum without being overbought. The pair remains technically constructive as long as price stays above the 50 EMA and ascending trendline. A break below $1.09519 would invalidate the immediate bullish bias, exposing downside risk toward $1.08617 and $1.07512.
Overall, the recent dip appears corrective, and the bullish trend remains intact unless key support levels fail. If bulls manage to secure a decisive close above $1.10484, continuation toward $1.11511 becomes increasingly probable, with higher resistance zones within reach.
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GBP/USD Price Analysis – April 07, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair has gained some bullish momentum, reaching an intra-day high of 1.2934.
However, this recovery seems to lack strong conviction, as the broader global economic outlook remains uncertain. Despite this, the pair is getting a lift from the ongoing decline in the US Dollar, which has been weakening due to changing market expectations.
Bearish US Dollar Outlook Amid Trade War Concerns and Fed Rate Cut Expectations
However, the reason for the weaker US dollar is growing concern about global economic growth, sparked by US President Donald Trump's announcement of large reciprocal tariffs.
These tariffs have raised fears of a prolonged trade war, which could slow down global economic activity. This uncertainty has shaken investor confidence, leading to lower risk appetite and significant losses in global stock markets.
While the US Dollar initially strengthened as a safe-haven currency, its rise has started to slow down as market expectations shift towards the Federal Reserve taking a more dovish approach.
Therefore, this shift in market expectations has led to a more cautious outlook for the USD. Investors now expect the Federal Reserve to start cutting rates again, especially if the US economy slows down due to the tariffs.
As a result, the USD has had trouble attracting buyers, which has helped support the GBP/USD pair.
GBP Strengthened by BoE's Slower Rate Cuts and Positive Outlook for GBP/USD
On the other hand, the British Pound has drawn support from expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will slow its pace of rate cuts compared to other central banks, including the Fed.
Therefore, the BoE's slower pace of rate cuts compared to the Fed strengthens the GBP, supporting a more positive outlook for the GBP/USD pair, potentially leading to upward movement in its value.
GBP/USD – Technical Analysis
After an aggressive sell-off from $1.3206, the British pound (GBP/USD) has entered a corrective phase, but gains remain capped below the $1.2955 resistance level. The pair is trading just under the 50-period SMA at $1.2957, which coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement—now acting as resistance.
Price failed to sustain above the key pivot at $1.2913 and is hovering near a critical support zone. If this level breaks, it may open the door toward $1.2821, where the ascending trendline converges with horizontal support.
Downside pressure is reinforced by a sharply falling RSI, currently at 38.71, suggesting bearish momentum still has room to run. The 50 SMA has flattened, pointing to market indecision in the near term. A deeper pullback could extend toward $1.2769 or even $1.2720 if $1.2821 fails to hold.
That said, upside risks remain if GBP/USD can clear $1.2955 decisively. A sustained move higher could see the pair test $1.3014 and $1.3060—levels aligning with the 50% and 61.8% retracements of the recent drop.
However, without a clean break above the 50 SMA and Fibonacci cluster, rallies are likely to face selling pressure. Bias favors the downside as long as price stays below $1.2955. Break below $1.2821 opens room for deeper retracement toward $1.2720.
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S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis – April 04, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
The S&P 500 (SPX) took a significant hit recently, dropping to 5,396 and reaching an intra-day low of 5,390. This sharp decline was largely driven by the rising tension between the US and China. US President Donald Trump announced new tariffs of at least 10% on all imported goods, which included a hefty 54% on Chinese products.
In response, China’s Commerce Ministry made it clear that they would take strong countermeasures to defend their interests. This exchange of tariffs has only added to the uncertainty, with worries growing about the future of the global economy.
Market Sentiment and Economic Outlook: Impact of Trade Tensions, Fed Expectations, and Labor Market Data
The global market sentiment has been flashing red, as evidenced by the bearish performance of the S&P 500 and other equity markets.
Trump’s new tariffs have raised concerns about a potential slowdown in global economic growth, with many investors now fearing a possible US recession. This uncertainty has spread across global markets, causing widespread losses.
The S&P 500 has been especially affected, as the trade tensions undermine investor confidence. There’s growing worry that a prolonged trade war could derail recovery efforts in key economies, making it a tough time for markets to stay positive.
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar (USD) has struggled to gain momentum, despite a slight bounce. Traders are increasingly expecting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates again soon, especially with concerns about the economic slowdown fueled by Trump’s tariffs.
The potential for stagflation—a mix of rising inflation and slow economic growth—is adding to worries. This fear that the US economy could face such a scenario is putting more pressure on the broader equity markets, including the S&P 500, making investors cautious about the future.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are now expecting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in its upcoming June meeting, as concerns about the US economy grow.
The likelihood of the Fed keeping rates steady has dropped sharply, from 81.5% last week to just 65.8%. This shift in expectations comes after President Trump’s tariff announcement, which has added more uncertainty and fueled market pessimism.
Economists are looking to the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for insights into the health of the labor market.
However, the data likely won't change market expectations unless there is a big shift in hiring or inflation. The unemployment rate is expected to stay at 4.1%, but wage growth is predicted to slow, offering little help to the Fed’s decision-making process.
S&P 500 – Technical Analysis
The S&P 500 is extending its corrective decline, slipping 0.86% to trade near 5,396.51 following a rejection below 5,640 resistance and a firm breakdown beneath the 5,494 pivot.
The price action has carved out a clear descending channel, with the index now approaching key support at 5,341.70. A breach below this level would expose the next bearish target at 5,291, reinforcing a negative technical bias in the short term.
Adding to the cautious tone is the RSI, currently hovering at 29.56—deep in oversold territory, but not yet signaling a reversal. The index continues to trade well below the 50-period SMA at 5,675, a level that also aligns with the upper bound of the descending trendline. Any bounce from current levels is likely to face strong resistance at 5,494 and then 5,640.
The broader structure suggests the market remains vulnerable to further downside, particularly if macroeconomic risks persist or if investors react negatively to upcoming job or inflation data. A bearish setup remains valid as long as SPX stays below 5,492, with a downside target at 5,291 and a stop loss at 5,641.
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- GOLD Price Analysis – April 04, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – April 04, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold price (XAU/USD) is battling to hold the $3,100 level as traders remain cautious ahead of key US economic data.
The yellow metal saw a sharp decline on Thursday, losing over 2.50% before recovering to close 0.65% lower at $3,115. Despite the rebound, gold remains under pressure as investors reassess their positions.
US Nonfarm Payrolls Report to Influence Gold and Fed Rate Cut Expectations
However, the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report is expected to set the tone for gold’s next move. Market forecasts range from 80,000 to 200,000 jobs, with a consensus at 135,000.
The data will be crucial in shaping Federal Reserve policy expectations, with Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments likely to provide further guidance. Markets are now factoring in up to four rate cuts before the end of 2024.
Gold Surge Driven by Economic Uncertainty and Geopolitical Risks Amid Rate Cut Expectations
Gold has gained nearly 18% this year, supported by economic uncertainty and rising geopolitical risks, Bloomberg reports. The CME FedWatch tool places the probability of a May rate cut at 33.2%, while June remains the most likely start for easing.
Traders are pricing in three to four cuts this year, fueled by concerns over slowing US economic growth. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Index has dropped to -2.84%, adding to fears of a downturn.
Stagflation Concerns Drive Gold's Appeal as a Safe-Haven Asset
On the other hand, the ongoing concerns about stagflation—where economic growth slows while inflation remains high—are boosting gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. Investors often turn to gold in uncertain economic conditions, making it a preferred choice during market volatility.
While short-term fluctuations may continue, gold’s long-term movement will largely depend on US economic trends, Federal Reserve policy decisions, and global geopolitical developments.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold continues to trade within a rising channel, showing signs of stabilization after recent volatility. The current price of $3,103.86 reflects a modest rebound from a key intraday low, finding support just above the pivot point at $3,090.
With price now holding slightly above that level, bulls are attempting to reclaim control, though momentum remains cautious.
Immediate resistance is seen at $3,123, a level that aligns closely with the 50-period EMA at $3,121.96. A decisive break above this zone would expose $3,148 and $3,167, areas that previously capped upward movement.
On the downside, $3,087 and $3,066 represent the next supports, with a sharper decline potentially targeting the channel's lower trendline near $3,054.
The RSI is currently at 45.80, suggesting neutral momentum after a pullback from overbought territory.
This aligns with the recent correction, though the broader structure remains bullish as long as gold holds above the trendline and $3,066 support.
Technically, a buy signal is favored above $3,090, with a suggested take-profit at $3,123 and a protective stop-loss at $3,066.
A close above the $3,123 resistance would likely validate a continuation toward the $3,148–$3,167 zone. Until then, traders should watch for price action clarity near the 50 EMA to confirm trend strength.
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- EUR/USD Price Analysis – April 04, 2025
EUR/USD Price Analysis – April 04, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair failed to sustain its bullish rally and edged lower around the 1.0965 level.
However, the reason for its downward trend could be linked to the bullish US dollar, which making a rebound after a previous sell-off triggered by US President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Moreover, traders seem cautious ahead of important economic data, including the March Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report and a speech by Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell.
US Dollar Strengthens Amid Economic Data and Fed Rate Cut Expectations
On the US front, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, has bounced back above the 102.00 level after falling to a six-month low near 101.25. This recovery highlights the strength of the USD, despite ongoing economic uncertainties, especially related to the trade war.
Economists predict that the US economy added 135,000 jobs in March, a slight decrease from the 151,000 in February.
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to stay steady at 4.1%, while average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.9% year-on-year, a slower pace compared to February's 4% increase.
While the labor market data is not expected to significantly change expectations for the Fed's monetary policy, inflation concerns continue to dominate investor focus.
However, the CME FedWatch tool shows that traders are increasingly predicting a rate cut at the Fed’s June meeting, driven by the impact of Trump’s tariffs.
The likelihood of the Fed keeping interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% has dropped to 65.8%, down from 81.5% a week earlier. This shift has fueled the recent strength of the USD, contributing to the EUR/USD pair’s pullback.
Euro Under Pressure Amid Tariff Concerns and ECB Policy Expectations
On the flip side, the Euro (EUR) is also under pressure, as investors expect Trump’s tariffs to negatively affect the Eurozone’s economic growth.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned that the consequences of the tariffs would be “dire” for millions of people worldwide, adding that the Eurozone is prepared to retaliate with countermeasures if negotiations with the US fail.
On top of tariff concerns, market expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will ease its monetary policy further in April have added to the EUR’s decline.
ECB officials believe that inflation driven by Trump’s tariffs is unlikely to persist, clearing the way for continued easing.
Meanwhile, German economic data is fueling concerns about the Eurozone’s economic health. The Federal Statistics Office reported that Germany’s factory orders remained flat in February, following a significant 5.5% decline in January.
This stagnation in Germany’s manufacturing sector suggests a lack of momentum, further weighing on the EUR.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is advancing firmly, trading around $1.1062 after clearing the key psychological resistance at $1.1013. This breakout has reinforced bullish momentum, aided by a strong RSI reading of 72.24, which reflects overbought conditions but also sustained demand.
The pair is comfortably positioned above the 50-day SMA at $1.0626, with price action trending well within an ascending channel.
Immediate resistance is seen at $1.1147, with bulls eyeing extended targets at $1.1220 and $1.1286. On the downside, a break below $1.1013 would shift focus to $1.0943 and $1.0893, while $1.0783 serves as a deeper support level. Despite overbought RSI, the bullish structure remains intact unless $1.1013 is breached to the downside.
As long as EUR/USD holds above its pivot, momentum favors continued upside—particularly if macro data supports the euro or weakens the dollar.
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USD/JPY Price Analysis – April 03, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
The USD/JPY pair experienced strong downside pressure, falling to a nearly four-week low below the 146.00 mark during the early European session on Thursday.
However, the movement was driven by increased concerns about the global economic outlook, which led to a broader risk aversion in the markets.
As a result, investors sought safe-haven assets like the Japanese Yen (JPY), which strengthened, while the US Dollar (USD) weakened due to these heightened economic fears.
Global Risk Aversion and US Tariff Announcement Weigh on USD/JPY
However, the slump in the USD/JPY pair can largely be attributed to the heightened global risk aversion following US President Donald Trump’s announcement of sweeping reciprocal tariffs on imported goods.
These tariffs, which threaten to reshape the global trading system, sparked fears of a potential slowdown in global economic growth.
Therefore, the resulting negative market sentiment boosted demand for traditional safe-haven assets, with the Japanese Yen benefiting from this shift.
The JPY soared to a three-week high against the USD during the Asian session, as stock markets around the world plunged in reaction to the tariff news.
Monetary Policy Divergence Drives Demand for JPY Over USD
Another factor contributing to the USD/JPY decline is the growing gap between US and Japanese monetary policies. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates soon, fueled by concerns over the impact of tariffs on the US economy.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is likely to continue raising rates due to persistent inflation, further narrowing the rate differential and boosting demand for the lower-yielding JPY.
US Dollar Weakens Amid Falling Treasury Yields and Growing Rate Cut Expectations
The broader market is shifting towards currencies that offer lower yields due to increased risk aversion. This has led to a sharp drop in US Treasury bond yields, with the yield on the 10-year US government bond falling to around 4.0%, its lowest point this year.
This change in the bond market has strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates again.
Investors are now betting on three 25-basis-point cuts by the end of the year. These expectations are mainly driven by concerns over a potential slowdown in the US economy, which has added more bearish pressure on the US dollar.
Therefore, the decline in US Treasury yields and rate cut expectations have weakened the USD, boosting demand for the JPY as a safe-haven asset, which has contributed to downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair.
Moving ahead, investors are now turning their attention to upcoming US economic data, including Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the ISM Services PMI. While the latest US ADP report showed that private-sector employers added 155K jobs in March, the overall outlook remains cautious due to the tariff-related concerns.
USDJPY – Technical Analysis
The U.S. dollar is rebounding modestly against the Japanese yen after a sharp intraday sell-off that broke decisively below the rising channel structure.
The pair fell from above ¥149, slicing through key support at ¥148.095 and triggering a steep drop toward a local low near ¥146.80. The price now sits just above the buy-entry zone at ¥146.607, where dip buyers may attempt to regain short-term control.
Technical damage has been done with the break below the 50-period SMA at ¥149.457, shifting the short-term bias to bearish.
However, momentum indicators suggest the decline may be overextended. The RSI currently reads 30.60, indicating the pair has reached oversold territory. If ¥146.607 holds, a recovery toward ¥148.655 is possible, in line with the previously tested support-turned-resistance level.
Below ¥146.607, further downside could accelerate toward the stop loss zone at ¥145.654. A break of this level may expose deeper levels at ¥144.979 and ¥144.226.
Conversely, a bullish reversal above ¥148.095 would shift the tone, reopening the path toward the 50-SMA at ¥149.457. Entry above ¥146.607 favors a rebound toward ¥148.655. Stop loss placed at ¥145.654 to manage downside exposure.
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- GOLD Price Analysis – April 03, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – April 03, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) is facing strong bearish pressure as it tumbles below the key $3,100 level during the U.S. trading session on Thursday.
The precious metal dropped over 1.35%, reaching $3,085 at the time of writing. This sharp decline comes as traders take profits, pushing gold below crucial support levels amid a broader market reaction to President Donald Trump’s recent tariff announcement.
Trump’s Tariff Plan Fuels Market Uncertainty
As per the latest, Trump's surprising statement about imposing a 10% global base tariff on all imports into the U.S. has added new uncertainty to the financial markets.
These tariffs will be in place along with the existing ones, causing concern among global investors. This has particularly affected Asia, where gold producers saw some initial gains. Additionally, as of Thursday, a 54% tariff is now being applied to Chinese imports, further increasing trade tensions.
Despite the initial rise in gold prices due to increased demand for safe-haven assets, global markets are still assessing the full impact of Trump's announcement.
The new tariff plan has raised concerns about a potential global economic slowdown. Meanwhile, the stocks have dropped sharply, and bond yields are falling as investors move towards safer options like U.S. Treasuries. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar has weakened against major currencies.
Market Reaction to U.S. Economic Data and Fed Expectations
On the other hand, the economic data is also shifting expectations around U.S. monetary policy. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of an interest rate cut in May is standing at 21.5%, with a larger chance of a rate cut in June at 27.5%.
Hence, the pause in the Fed’s rate decisions appears increasingly likely, as traders begin to factor in the potential fallout from the tariff-induced economic slowdown.
Moreover, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has commented that tariffs could be lifted or removed if countries bring their production back to the U.S.
This has added more uncertainty to the situation, as markets are still unsure about the future direction of U.S. trade policy.
Strong Safe-Haven Demand for Gold Amid Market Uncertainty
Despite the recent drop in gold prices, the underlying demand for safe-haven assets remains strong. The broader market uncertainty, coupled with fears of an economic slowdown, has shifted flows into gold, which is traditionally seen as a hedge against instability.
Traders are closely monitoring the U.S. economic data for further clues, particularly the upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report and the ISM Services PMI.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold continues to consolidate within a rising parallel channel, with price action testing support near the channel’s lower boundary around $3,111.
This level also coincides with the key pivot point, providing a critical juncture for short-term market direction. Price is currently hovering just below the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), which is positioned at $3,128.34—acting as dynamic resistance in the current structure.
On the upside, immediate resistance sits at $3,144. A breakout above this level would signal renewed bullish momentum, exposing higher resistance targets at $3,148 and $3,167.
Beyond that, the next bullish target stands at $3,184, where the upper boundary of the channel may curb further gains. On the downside, a failure to hold $3,111 would likely invite fresh selling pressure, targeting $3,096 and $3,084 as next support zones.
The RSI is currently at 44.32, signaling weakening momentum after recently retreating from overbought territory.
The bearish divergence between price highs and RSI peaks suggests some fatigue among buyers. Still, the bullish channel remains valid, and traders are closely watching the $3,111 level as a potential re-entry point.
Bullish bias remains intact above $3,111. A long position from $3,111 with a target at $3,144 and stop loss at $3,096 offers a favorable risk-reward.
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