AUD/USD Price Analysis – April 03, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair is seeing a strong rise, moving towards a two-week high of 0.6365. The Australian Dollar (AUD) is strengthening as the US Dollar (USD) experiences a significant sell-off.
This decline in the dollar is driven by growing concerns among traders that the newly introduced tariffs by President Donald Trump could push the US economy into a recession in the near term.
US Dollar Faces Intense Sell-Off
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has experienced a sharp decline, with the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against six major currencies, dropping more than 2% to near 102.00.
This marks the largest one-day correction in years, highlighting significant weakness in the USD. However, the key factor behind this sell-off is President Trump's announcement of new tariffs on imported goods to the US, set to take effect on April 5.
On Wednesday, President Trump introduced a reciprocal tariff plan, imposing a 10% baseline levy on all imports, with additional tariffs ranging from 10% to 49% depending on the country.
Market participants are worried that these broad tariffs could drive inflation and negatively impact US economic growth, potentially leading to stagflation.
Hence, this scenario would make it more challenging for the Federal Reserve to manage the economy and could slow down future recovery.
Impact on Australia and China
Therefore, the impact of these tariffs extends beyond US borders, particularly affecting Australia. With the US imposing a 34% increase in tariffs on Chinese products, in addition to a 20% levy already imposed on Chinese goods, Australia’s economy could face further pressures.
This is due to Australia's significant trade relationship with China, with China being one of its largest trading partners. However, the concerns over China’s economic outlook are growing, weighing on the Australian Dollar (AUD).
China has already urged the US to reconsider its tariff strategy, warning that countermeasures may be implemented to safeguard its economic interests. This ongoing trade tension between the US and China adds to the uncertainties, especially for countries like Australia that depend heavily on exports to China.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
The Australian dollar is trading near $0.6299, showing signs of bullish momentum after rebounding from the $0.62650 support zone.
This level, which aligns with the ascending trendline and previous demand area, has proven to be a key pivot in recent sessions.
The 50-period SMA at $0.62868 is now being tested as near-term support after a strong upward move that briefly reached resistance at $0.63130.
Price action remains compressed within a broader symmetrical triangle pattern, with lower highs forming against a gradually rising support base.
A break above $0.63130 would signal renewed bullish control, potentially targeting the next resistance levels at $0.63406 and $0.63634.
On the downside, a sustained move below $0.62650 would expose deeper supports at $0.62333 and $0.62255. If breached, this could trigger a broader breakdown toward the base of the pattern near $0.61973.
The RSI at 55.39 shows mild bullish momentum, holding above its moving average. However, traders should watch for a confirmed close above $0.63130 before anticipating any significant upside extension.
Entry above $0.62650 remains valid while price holds trendline support. Targets lie near $0.63130 with a protective stop at $0.62333.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis – April 02, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair has slipped to 1.0809, fueled by increasing concerns about President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on the European Union (EU) and the Eurozone’s fragile economic outlook.
As these factors weigh heavily on the euro, traders are closely monitoring the situation for any new developments that could influence the currency pair’s direction.
Escalating Trade Tensions: EU Faces Potential Tariffs and Economic Impact
President Trump’s longstanding accusations against the EU for unfair trade practices have escalated into potential tariffs on European goods. The EU, already struggling economically, faces the threat of being one of the hardest-hit regions if these tariffs are imposed.
The Trump administration’s stance is based on the perception that the EU does not purchase enough American goods, and these tariffs could further strain an economy already grappling with stagnation.
Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), recently highlighted that the trade conflict could reduce Eurozone growth by 0.5%, signaling a significant challenge for the region.
In response, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen confirmed that the EU would retaliate with countermeasures if necessary, adding to the uncertainty surrounding the situation.
Slower Inflation and Rate Cut Expectations Pushing the Euro Lower
In addition to the trade tensions, the Eurozone’s economic outlook is growing more pessimistic. Inflation data for March showed core consumer prices rising by just 2.4%, below the expected 2.5%, signaling weaker-than-anticipated price pressures.
This slowdown in inflation, compounded by sluggish economic growth, has raised expectations that the ECB may opt to cut interest rates in the near future to stimulate the economy.
Lagarde has indicated that the battle against inflation is nearly over, but the drop in price growth could indicate that the Eurozone’s recovery might take longer than previously expected.
This growing uncertainty is making traders cautious, further pressuring the euro as speculations about ECB actions continue to mount.
US Economic Data and Trade Worries Heighten Market Anxiety
Across the Atlantic, concerns over Trump’s tariffs are also casting a shadow on the US economy. There are fears that these tariffs could disrupt global business investment, especially as companies adjust to the increased costs and uncertainty.
Recent data, such as the ISM Manufacturing PMI, revealed a contraction in business activity in March, pointing to a slowdown in demand and production.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also warned that the tariffs could disproportionately affect trading partners, raising concerns that the US economy could suffer as well.
With the ADP Employment Change report for March expected to show a significant jump in jobs (105,000 compared to 77,000 in February), investors are eagerly awaiting these figures, which could offer further insight into the US economy’s resilience.
Therefore, the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s tariffs and the potential slowdown in the US economy could weigh on the US dollar, possibly leading to a weaker dollar and benefiting the EUR/USD pair, driving it higher.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is attempting to stabilize above the $1.0787 mark, a key level near the breakout zone of a descending channel that had previously capped upside momentum throughout March.
Price action is currently consolidating near the 50-period SMA, which sits at $1.0803, acting as dynamic resistance. The RSI has improved modestly to 47.96, suggesting neutral momentum with a slight bullish tilt as it creeps back toward the 50 line.
The pair recently bounced from a low of $1.0740, which held as a critical support area. A confirmed break above the $1.0787 pivot opens the door toward $1.0848—yesterday’s high and the next major resistance.
The short-term structure shows buyers gradually reclaiming lost ground, but sustained bullish momentum requires a clean move above the 50-SMA and break of the recent high.
On the downside, $1.0784 acts as immediate support, followed by the stop-loss buffer at $1.0757 and a more significant support zone at $1.0733. Any breach below these levels would signal weakness and could reignite bearish pressure.
The EUR/USD outlook remains cautiously bullish if price sustains above $1.0787. A break higher could expose $1.0848, while failure risks another dip toward $1.0757.
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- GOLD Price Analysis – April 02, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – April 02, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) remains stable above $3,130 on Wednesday after retreating from a record high of $3,149. However, the precious metal experienced a reversal move in the previous session as traders adopted a cautious stance ahead of key economic events.
Another factor that has been supporting the Gold price is the uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs, which may weaken the dollar's safe-haven appeal, prompting investors to shift towards gold as a hedge.
Tariff Uncertainty and Employment Data Drive Market Volatility and Gold Price Movements
The global market sentiment has been sluggish as investors closely monitor the White House, with former U.S. President Donald Trump set to announce new reciprocal tariffs. The lack of clarity on the scale and targets of these levies has fueled market speculation, contributing to increased volatility.
Hence, the uncertainty surrounding the tariffs could lead to a "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario for Gold, resulting in short-term corrections as market participants adjust positions after the announcement.
On the other hand, traders are also eyeing the ADP private employment report, expected to show a gain of 105,000 jobs in March, up from 77,000 in February. Although the ADP data does not always align with the official Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, it remains a key indicator of labor market health and can influence Federal Reserve policy expectations.
Federal Reserve's Rate Plans and Strong Investor Demand Support Gold Prices
On the U.S. side, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate plans are important for Gold prices. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 15.8% chance of a rate cut in May, and a 25.6% chance in June. Generally, the higher interest rates can put pressure on Gold prices, but global uncertainties are still pushing up demand for Gold as a safe investment.
Moreover, investor interest in Gold remains strong, as evidenced by record inflows into China’s Huaan Yifu Gold ETF. The fund received 1.4 billion Yuan ($194 million) on Monday, followed by another 1 billion Yuan on Tuesday, reinforcing Gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is maintaining its broader uptrend, holding within a well-defined ascending channel. After a brief correction that saw prices dip to an intraday low of $3,112.21, the metal has rebounded and is currently trading near $3,125.00.
The bullish structure remains intact as long as gold sustains above the 50-period EMA at $3,097.88. The recent pullback found support just above the $3,100.00 handle—a level that aligns with both the lower band of the channel and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from the late-March rally.
The pivot point sits at $3,112.21, a critical zone where buyers have returned repeatedly. Immediate resistance is seen at $3,144.00, followed by a stronger ceiling at $3,148.62.
A breakout above this area could open the path toward the next resistance at $3,165.66. On the downside, key support rests at $3,100.07, with additional cushions forming at $3,094.00 and $3,079.05.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 55.86, recovering from oversold territory and suggesting renewed bullish momentum, although not yet signaling overbought conditions.
The 50 EMA at $3,097.88 is sloping upward, reinforcing the short-term bullish bias, while price action remains comfortably above the psychological support at $3,100.
As long as XAU/USD holds above $3,111.00, the risk remains tilted to the upside. Traders may consider long positions above this level with a target at $3,144.00 and a protective stop at $3,094.00. Failure to hold above $3,100.00, however, could trigger a broader correction.
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- GBP/USD Price Analysis – April 02, 2025
GBP/USD Price Analysis – April 02, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the GBP/USD pair faced a notable rally, holding its ground around the 1.2950 level and reaching an intra-day high of 1.2950.
However, the British Pound’s strength came primarily from a weaker US Dollar, which helped push the pair higher. However, market sentiment remained cautious ahead of the much-anticipated announcement of a reciprocal tariff plan by US President Donald Trump later in the day.
Trump’s “Liberation Day” Tariffs Raise Inflation Concerns and GBP/USD Volatility
US President Trump’s “Liberation Day” plan aims to impose tariffs on imports, potentially as high as 20%. This move has raised concerns about its impact on global trade, with fears that it could drive up import prices and worsen inflation.
The market became more cautious as traders worried about escalating trade tensions, especially if the tariffs are higher than expected.
The White House has suggested that tariffs could be adjusted if trading partners open up more to US imports, but this hasn't eased concerns. If these tariffs are applied, US inflation may rise, which could keep the Federal Reserve focused on maintaining higher interest rates.
For the GBP/USD pair, this could lead to more volatility as higher tariffs could push the US dollar up as inflationary pressures mount, making the GBP/USD more sensitive to changes in US economic policies.
UK Economy Faces Pressures from Trump's Trade Policies and Cooling Wage Growth
On the other hand, the UK economy continues to face uncertainties, with concerns exacerbated by Trump’s trade policies.
The UK Office for Business Responsibility (OBR) warned that the potential repercussions of Trump's tariffs could undermine the government's fiscal buffer and shrink the UK economy by as much as 1%.
Moreover, the delay in finalizing an economic deal between the US and the UK has added to the uncertainty, with concerns that the terms of any trade agreement could change following the tariff announcement.
Despite this, cooling wage growth in the UK adds to the pressures on the British currency. Data from Incomes Data Research (IDR) revealed that the median pay increase for the three months to February slowed to 3.5%, the lowest in three years, down from the prior release of 4%.
This decrease in wage growth has fueled expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) may take a dovish stance in the near future, potentially further weighing on the GBP.
Therefore, the BoE's dovish outlook, combined with the risk of escalating trade tensions, has contributed to the cautious trading behavior of the Pound.
Investors are uncertain about the implications of Trump's tariff policy on global economic growth, which could ultimately affect the UK's economic performance and trade relations with the US.
US ADP Employment Data Expected to Boost Dollar and Pressure GBP/USD
In addition to geopolitical concerns, Wednesday’s market session will also be focused on the release of the ADP Employment Change data for March, which is expected to show that private employers added 105,000 jobs.
This would represent an increase from the 77,000 jobs added in February, highlighting continued resilience in the US labor market.
Therefore, the ADP Employment Change data, showing an increase in job growth, could strengthen the US dollar, putting downward pressure on GBP/USD as expectations for a more hawkish Fed rise.
GBP/USD – Technical Analysis
GBP/USD is consolidating just above the $1.2909 threshold, testing trendline support while trading slightly below the 50-SMA at $1.2932.
The pair’s structure is largely range-bound, with repeated attempts to break above $1.2972 meeting firm resistance.
Today’s price action remains cautious as traders await fresh macro catalysts. The RSI stands at 48.50, signaling indecision with a slight bearish divergence against recent higher lows in price.
A break and sustained move above the entry trigger at $1.2909 could initiate a recovery toward $1.2966, which marks the top of the recent range and immediate resistance.
The bullish case is supported by a confluence of support levels, including rising trendline support from the March lows and the psychological zone near $1.2874.
However, any failure to hold the $1.2874 level would likely expose $1.2843 and potentially $1.2813, reintroducing a bearish bias in the near term.
The technical bias remains neutral-to-bullish above $1.2909. A breakout above $1.2932 could lift the pair toward $1.2966, while a drop below $1.2874 would negate the setup.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis – April 01, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
The Australian Dollar (AUD) edged higher on Tuesday after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held the Official Cash Rate at 4.10% during its April policy meeting—an outcome widely expected by markets.
In the post-meeting statement, the RBA struck a cautious tone, emphasizing ongoing concerns about the persistence of inflation and heightened geopolitical tensions.
The central bank acknowledged that recent U.S. tariff rhetoric is weighing on global business confidence and contributing to an increasingly uncertain trade environment.
Governor Michele Bullock reinforced the board’s cautious stance, noting that policymakers are not yet prepared to discuss rate cuts. “We have to be careful not to get ahead of ourselves on policy,” she said, confirming that no firm decisions were made regarding a May move. The RBA’s wait-and-see approach comes as inflation data remains sticky, and global risk sentiment stays fragile.
China Data and U.S. Tariff Uncertainty Shape Sentiment
While the RBA decision offered short-term support for the Aussie, global trade risks continue to act as a limiting factor.
Market participants remain wary ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement on Wednesday, which he confirmed would apply to all countries—not just key trading partners.
Such policies could dampen risk sentiment and, by extension, weigh on the AUD, given its sensitivity to global trade flows.
On a more supportive note, economic data from China—Australia’s largest trading partner—surprised to the upside.
China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.2 in March, while the NBS Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs also posted solid gains, offering signs of stabilization in China’s economic activity.
This data provided a modest tailwind for the Aussie, signaling potential demand strength in regional trade.
Mixed Domestic Data Keeps RBA Cautious
Domestically, February retail sales rose 0.2% month-over-month, falling short of market expectations for a 0.3% gain and down from January’s 0.3% increase.
While not alarming, the miss underscores tepid consumer momentum, which could keep the RBA on the sidelines in the near term.
Looking ahead, traders will closely watch U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI data later today for further direction in AUD/USD.
Until then, the Aussie remains supported near term, but upside potential could remain capped by global uncertainty.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
The Australian Dollar remains under sustained selling pressure, with AUD/USD extending its downside drift below the 50-period simple moving average and clinging to the lower bounds of a descending trend channel.
After failing to sustain gains above the $0.6290 region, price broke below the key $0.6289 SMA and is now positioned precariously near short-term support at $0.6250. The inability to retake the upper trendline or the moving average reflects persistent bearish sentiment.
The recent rejection from the $0.6330 resistance—coupled with the channel breakdown—points to an increasing probability of continuation toward the next key horizontal support at $0.6217.
Momentum indicators reinforce the bearish outlook: the RSI is hovering at 41.30, below the midline and signaling weak upside momentum, while the price remains capped under a firm downtrend line that has held since March 19.
A confirmed breach below $0.6250 could accelerate losses toward the $0.6218 and $0.6188 support levels. Meanwhile, resistance continues to stack at $0.6291 and $0.6330, with any rebounds likely to be short-lived unless the pair closes decisively above the falling trendline and 50-SMA.
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- GOLD Price Analysis – April 01, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – April 01, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices extended their meteoric rise on Tuesday, hitting a fresh record above $3,100 per ounce. The move comes ahead of the April 2 unveiling of U.S. reciprocal tariffs, which traders expect to impact global trade flows and risk sentiment.
The surge in gold is also supported by broader macro drivers: softening U.S. growth data, geopolitical instability, and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year. CME FedWatch now prices in 63 basis points of cuts by year-end, adding further momentum to bullion.
Fundamentals Support Gold’s Bullish Outlook
Gold’s rally is underpinned by more than short-term policy speculation. The metal posted its strongest quarterly performance since 1986, fueled by:
Sustained central bank gold purchases, especially from emerging markets
Rebounding demand for gold-backed ETFs
Geopolitical risks spanning both Europe and the Middle East
A weakening U.S. dollar and stabilizing Treasury yields
Tim Waterer, chief analyst at KCM Trade, said the April 2 tariff event may be just the beginning: “Automobile tariffs on April 3 could extend uncertainty further. Unless macro conditions improve significantly, gold buyers are likely to remain active on any pullbacks.”
With global growth concerns still unresolved, investor appetite for gold appears resilient.
What’s Next: $3,200 in Sight?
Gold's next technical target lies near $3,200, a level many traders are eyeing if current momentum holds. On the downside, support lies near the previous breakout zone around $3,085.
Upcoming U.S. economic releases could prove pivotal. Tuesday's job openings data and Friday’s non-farm payrolls report may either reinforce or challenge the Fed’s dovish tilt. Any surprises could spark short-term volatility across commodities and FX markets.
Until then, the bullish case for gold remains intact—backed by macro risk, monetary policy shifts, and continued investor demand.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold prices remain firmly bid, holding within a well-defined ascending channel that has underpinned the bullish trend since March 25.
The metal continues to find strong dip-buying interest, with the recent pullback stalling above the $3,127 pivot point—coinciding with the lower boundary of the bullish channel and offering technical validation for near-term support.
Despite a minor correction from intraday highs around $3,148, gold bulls appear to be defending the structure, and the broader uptrend remains intact barring a breakdown below $3,110.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has cooled to 58.93 from overbought territory, signaling a pause in momentum rather than a trend reversal.
Meanwhile, the 50-period SMA at $3,106.56 continues to track closely below price, reinforcing the strength of the underlying trend and providing dynamic support.
A confirmed move above $3,148 could open the door toward $3,165 and potentially challenge the $3,185 level, where previous supply zones could re-emerge.
Conversely, a break below $3,127 may signal further profit-taking, exposing $3,110 and $3,099 as next downside targets.
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- USD/CAD Price Analysis – April 01, 2025
USD/CAD Price Analysis – April 01, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
USD/CAD has climbed decisively above a multi-week descending trendline, crossing the $1.4320 level and reclaiming ground above its 50-period SMA ($1.43219).
The move suggests a bullish reversal is gaining traction, with risk-off sentiment acting as a tailwind for the U.S. dollar.
Traders appear increasingly defensive ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump’s anticipated tariff announcement on Wednesday.
The president confirmed the plan will target all countries, intensifying concerns of a broader trade conflict. This uncertainty continues to weigh on the Canadian Dollar (CAD), particularly given Canada’s heavy export reliance on the U.S.
CAD Faces Headwinds Despite Oil Support
The Loonie remains under pressure after Trump reiterated his administration’s plans to enforce a 25% tariff on auto imports. Given that nearly 75% of Canadian exports are U.S.-bound—primarily oil and autos—this development poses significant downside risk. However, rising crude oil prices may offer some near-term support for the CAD.
As Canada is the largest oil supplier to the U.S., an uptick in crude often lends strength to its currency. Nonetheless, the overall backdrop remains fragile, with sentiment driven by U.S. policy unpredictability and global trade realignments.
Supportive Factors for CAD:
Brent and WTI prices remain elevated amid OPEC+ monitoring.
Oil remains Canada's key export; gains here cushion downside.
Friday’s jobs report could offset tariff impact if strong.
Traders Focus on Packed Canadian Data Week
The Canadian calendar is packed with high-impact events this week that could steer the USD/CAD pair.
Key Upcoming Events:
Tuesday, April 1 – Manufacturing PMI: Previous reading: 47.8
Thursday, April 3 – Trade Balance: Forecast: C$3.4B (vs. C$4.0B prior)
Friday, April 4 – Employment Change & Unemployment Rate: Forecast: 10.4K jobs, 6.7% unemployment (vs. 1.1K and 6.6% prior)
With the job market data and trade balance numbers in focus, the Loonie's direction hinges on whether economic strength can counteract external trade risks.
A better-than-expected jobs report could slow USD/CAD’s bullish momentum—but if Canadian data disappoints, the pair may target the $1.44 zone next.
USD/CAD – Technical Analysis
USD/CAD has broken decisively above a multi-week descending trendline, signaling a potential bullish reversal as price reclaims ground above the 50-period simple moving average ($1.43219).
The pair’s upward momentum accelerated following the breakout from the $1.4370 resistance, which now flips to near-term support. Price is now hovering just below the $1.4450 zone, a level last tested mid-March.
The momentum shift is confirmed by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), currently reading 65.88 and trending higher—suggesting sustained buying interest without yet entering overbought territory.
The bullish crossover of the RSI and its moving average line reinforces this positive momentum. The 50-SMA, once resistance, is now providing dynamic support and aligning with the former descending trendline, offering technical confluence.
If price sustains above the $1.4370 breakout level, upside potential remains toward the $1.4450–$1.4526 resistance corridor. Conversely, a drop back below $1.4315 could invalidate the breakout and expose the pair to renewed bearish pressure toward $1.4237 and $1.4160.
Overall, technicals support a bullish near-term outlook, with momentum, structure, and breakout signals all aligned in favor of further gains—provided price holds above the $1.4370 pivot.
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GOLD Price Analysis – March 31, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices surged to a new all-time high of $3,086 per ounce in early Monday trading in Asia, fueled by mounting geopolitical uncertainty and growing confidence in a dovish Federal Reserve. The move builds on last week’s momentum, with spot gold decisively breaking through $3,070 resistance, and now setting its sights on the next key target at $3,105.
The latest leg of the rally came in response to Friday’s PCE Price Index, which rose 0.4% month-over-month, slightly ahead of the 0.3% forecast.
While the inflation reading was marginally hotter, analysts say it’s unlikely to shift the Fed’s current trajectory. Markets are now pricing in roughly 63 basis points of rate cuts by year-end, with the first cut potentially arriving as early as July.
“Safe-haven demand tied to trade uncertainty and macro risks continues to support gold,” said Peter Grant of Zaner Metals, noting that softening global growth signals are reinforcing the metal’s upward bias.
Traders Brace for High-Impact U.S. Data
This week’s macro calendar is packed with key data releases that could shape the Fed’s rate path—and by extension, gold’s trajectory. Investors will be watching closely for signs of economic softening or labor market weakness, which could strengthen the case for rate cuts and deepen demand for safe-haven assets.
Key U.S. Events to Watch This Week:
Tuesday:
ISM Manufacturing PMI (Est. 49.6)
JOLTS Job Openings
Wednesday:
ADP Non-Farm Employment (Est. 118K)
Thursday:
Weekly Unemployment Claims
ISM Services PMI
Friday:
Non-Farm Payrolls (Est. 139K)
Unemployment Rate (Est. 4.1%)
Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks
Outlook: Bullish Bias Remains Intact
While inflation remains sticky, slowing economic momentum and geopolitical tensions are tipping investor sentiment toward risk aversion. With gold already breaking to new highs, a soft jobs report or disappointing manufacturing data this week could accelerate the rally toward $3,105 and beyond.
The Fed’s policy tone remains the linchpin. Should upcoming data support a July rate cut narrative, gold’s bullish run may still have room to extend—especially with real yields edging lower and central banks continuing to accumulate gold reserves.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold continues to extend its bullish trajectory, with XAU/USD trading at $3,085.34 after breaking above the short-term pivot at $3,077.
The move confirms bullish continuation within a well-established ascending channel, as buyers maintain control despite broader macroeconomic uncertainties.
The recent breakout is supported by favorable momentum and strong trend structure, reinforcing the case for additional upside toward $3,105 and potentially $3,118.82.
The 50-period Simple Moving Average, currently at $3,037.63, has provided consistent dynamic support, aligning with the channel's lower boundary.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds at 66.95, suggesting momentum remains healthy without tipping into extreme overbought territory.
A potential trade setup emerges with a buy entry above $3,077, targeting $3,105 as the primary resistance, with a stop loss set at $3,065. This configuration offers a compelling risk-to-reward ratio of approximately 1:2.3.
As long as the price holds above $3,070, the bias remains firmly bullish. However, any drop below the $3,065 support could trigger a short-term correction toward $3,055 and possibly $3,037.
This technical structure continues to favor the bulls, supported by rising moving averages, solid channel support, and a well-behaved RSI.
Traders should monitor price action closely near the $3,105 resistance, as a break above this level could open the door to fresh highs toward $3,118.82.
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- EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 30, 2025
EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 31, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
The euro (EUR) rebounded strongly, with EUR/USD rising to near 1.0820 during North American trading hours. The recovery follows reports that the European Commission (EC) is preparing trade concessions to ease tensions with the United States, ahead of a formal tariff announcement by President Donald Trump scheduled for Wednesday.
According to Bloomberg, the European Union is working to identify concessions it is willing to offer in exchange for partial removal or delay of U.S. tariffs—particularly the 25% levy on foreign automobiles set to take effect on April 2.
This diplomatic overture could help de-escalate fears of a full-scale Eurozone-U.S. trade war, especially for export-heavy sectors like German automakers. Germany sends roughly 13% of its auto exports to the U.S., and the proposed tariffs could seriously dent their global competitiveness.
“We regret the 25% auto tariffs and the new measures coming on April 2, but we are preparing for all of these,” said EC spokesperson Olof Gill. He described Europe’s potential response as “timely, robust, and well-calibrated.”
Officials Warn of Global Fallout from Auto Tariffs
The backlash from Europe has been swift. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz condemned the tariff policy, calling it a “lose-lose situation” that undermines global prosperity. Echoing that view, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos warned that while the inflationary impact of tariffs may be temporary, the damage to growth could be long-lasting.
“The worst outcome is a vicious circle of tariffs and retaliation,” de Guindos said, adding that trade disruptions are “extremely detrimental” to Eurozone growth.
His comments come amid growing monetary policy uncertainty. De Guindos said it was “very difficult to say” what the ECB might decide in April, citing fluid economic conditions.
Mixed Economic Data from Eurozone
Further complicating the outlook, preliminary March inflation figures from France and Spain disappointed:
France CPI (EU Norm): +0.9% YoY (vs. 1.1% est.)
Spain HICP: +2.2% YoY (down from 2.9%)
The weaker-than-expected inflation data could give the ECB more flexibility, but also reinforces concerns about stagnating demand within the Eurozone.
U.S. PCE Data Boosts Fed Dilemma
Across the Atlantic, inflation remains sticky. Core PCE inflation—the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge—rose 2.8% YoY in February, above the 2.7% forecast and January’s 2.6% print. On a monthly basis, core PCE climbed 0.4%, also exceeding expectations.
Despite the upside surprise, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) slipped toward 104.00, as traders adjusted positions ahead of potential Fed rate commentary.
Boston Fed President Susan Collins acknowledged that tariffs are “likely to increase inflation in the near term,” though she sees the rise as potentially short-lived. Still, she advocated for “active patience,” suggesting the Fed will likely hold rates in the 4.25%–4.50% range for an extended period.
EUR/USD Outlook: All Eyes on April 2 and Fed Guidance
As markets brace for Trump’s formal auto tariff announcement on Wednesday, volatility is expected to remain elevated. If the EU’s proposed concessions gain traction, EUR/USD could build on its recovery. However, failure to secure a diplomatic resolution—especially with tariffs hitting major Eurozone exports—could quickly reverse gains.
Simultaneously, traders will continue parsing U.S. inflation data and Fed signals, with rate expectations playing a pivotal role in shaping currency direction through Q2.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The euro is showing signs of a trend reversal after a decisive breakout above the descending channel that had constrained price action since mid-March.
Trading at $1.08217, EUR/USD has cleared the key pivot level of $1.08120, signaling renewed bullish interest and a potential shift in short-term market sentiment.
The move comes after a sharp rebound from the $1.07585 level, backed by a breakout above the 50-period SMA ($1.07913), now acting as dynamic support.
The recent rally is technically significant, as it follows weeks of downward momentum and coincides with a strong RSI rebound.
The Relative Strength Index currently reads 61.78, pointing to growing bullish momentum without yet entering overbought territory.
Traders are eyeing a move toward the next resistance levels at $1.08544 and $1.08849, with extended upside potential toward $1.09177.
The setup favors a continuation higher, particularly if EUR/USD holds above the $1.08120 pivot. A failure to maintain this breakout level could lead to a retest of $1.07585 and, if breached, expose support at $1.07214 and $1.06780.
For now, however, the price structure favors buying dips, with the breakout confirmed by both price action and momentum.
A favorable risk-reward setup is evident for long positions entered above $1.08120, targeting $1.08849, with a stop loss below $1.07585.
The shift in structure and the break above the channel suggest further gains are likely, barring any major macro-driven dollar strength.
EUR/USD has confirmed a bullish breakout above $1.08120. The trend favors upside toward $1.08849, while $1.07585 remains key support to protect the bias.
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GBP/USD Price Analysis – March 31, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
The British Pound (GBP) is holding firm against the U.S. Dollar (USD), hovering under 1.2950 despite mounting global uncertainty and a hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation report. At the time of writing, GBP/USD trades under 1.2950, virtually flat on the day as traders parse a mix of macro data and geopolitical developments.
The market is currently digesting February’s PCE Price Index, released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The headline print held steady at 2.5% YoY, while the core PCE, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, rose to 2.8%—slightly above January’s 2.7% and market expectations.
The inflation data adds complexity to the Fed’s rate outlook, especially as price growth continues to drift above the 2% target. However, deteriorating sentiment from U.S. consumers may temper expectations of near-term policy tightening.
Consumer Sentiment Slides as Inflation Expectations Rise
The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 57.0 from the preliminary reading of 57.9, reflecting growing pessimism among U.S. households. Short-term inflation expectations jumped to 5%, while five-year projections edged up to 4.1%—fueling concerns about sticky inflation.
“This month’s decline reflects a clear consensus across all demographic and political affiliations,” the report stated, underscoring the broad-based anxiety across the U.S. economy.
UK Macro Data Surprises to the Upside
On the UK side, economic data offered a more positive tone. While February Retail Sales declined compared to January, the 1.0% MoM increase came in well above economist expectations of a 0.3% decline.
Additionally, the UK economy grew by 0.1% in Q4 2024, meeting forecasts from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This upbeat data helped push GBP/USD to an intraday high of 1.2967, although the pair later pared gains as investors absorbed the stronger U.S. inflation readings.
Conclusion
Despite pressure from U.S. inflation data and trade uncertainty, GBP/USD remains resilient—underpinned by solid UK data and fading Fed rate hike expectations. However, the path forward will be shaped by how markets react to Trump’s tariff policy, labor market reports, and the evolving macro landscape.
GBP/USD – Technical Analysis
The British pound is once again testing the lower end of a narrow consolidation zone as GBP/USD slips to $1.29331.
Price action remains range-bound below the descending trendline extending from the March high, with bearish pressure mounting as the pair struggles to reclaim the $1.29582 resistance.
The pair is now hovering just above a key pivot zone at $1.29187—an area that, if broken, could shift momentum firmly in favor of the bears.
The setup favors a short position below $1.29187, targeting $1.28670 as the next support, with a protective stop placed at $1.29582.
This configuration offers a risk-reward ratio of approximately 1:2, ideal for short-term positioning in a market that remains technically indecisive.
RSI currently reads 48.36—below the neutral midpoint—indicating fading bullish momentum and the potential for a deeper pullback if price closes below support.
The 50-period Simple Moving Average sits at $1.29286 and is now flatlining, suggesting a loss of directional bias.
However, a break below the moving average and horizontal support could open the door to further downside toward $1.28300.
Meanwhile, bulls would need to clear $1.29704 to invalidate the bearish scenario and shift momentum higher toward $1.30143.
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