GOLD Price Analysis – March 28, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the Gold price (XAU/USD) extended its bullish momentum for the second consecutive day, surging to a fresh all-time high around the $3,085 region.
However, the ongoing trade war concerns, triggered by US President Donald Trump’s announcement of auto tariffs, have fueled market uncertainty, prompting investors to seek refuge in the safe-haven metal.
Moreover, the ongoing expectations that Trump's aggressive trade policies could slow US economic growth and push the Federal Reserve (Fed) towards renewed rate cuts have further supported Gold’s upward trend.
Despite a modest uptick in the US Dollar (USD), the non-yielding yellow metal continued to attract strong demand as market participants brace for upcoming US economic data.
US Tariffs and Fed Rate Cut Expectations Boost Gold
On Wednesday, President Trump imposed a 25% tariff on imported cars and light trucks, set to take effect on April 3.
This move, coupled with existing 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum, has intensified fears of a broader global trade war.
Investors remain on edge ahead of next week’s anticipated reciprocal tariffs, further lifting Gold to new record highs.
Meanwhile, markets are increasingly pricing in the likelihood of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates at its June policy meeting due to concerns over trade-driven economic deceleration.
The resilience of Gold prices, despite strong US macroeconomic data and mostly hawkish Fed comments, underscores the growing safe-haven demand amid heightened geopolitical risks.
Stronger US Data Fails to Deter Gold’s Rally
Despite a strong US economic backdrop, Gold prices have continued their upward trend. On Thursday, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded at an annualized pace of 2.4%, exceeding expectations of 2.3%. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims dropped slightly to 224K, reinforcing the strength of the US labor market.
Fed officials are being careful about future changes to policy. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said the current approach is suitable because the economy is uncertain.
Boston Fed President Susan Collins also warned that Trump's trade policies could increase inflation, but it's unclear how much.
Looking ahead, market focus shifts to the upcoming US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
Investors will closely analyze the data to assess potential rate-cut trajectories, which could further influence USD dynamics and provide fresh momentum for Gold prices.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) extended its rally on Friday, trading at $3,081.94 with a 0.27% gain on the day. The metal is showing continued strength as it hovers near record highs, buoyed by safe-haven flows and dovish monetary policy expectations.
Technically, gold remains firmly positioned above its key pivot point at $3,070.09, reinforcing bullish control in the short term.
The 4-hour chart reveals a sustained uptrend, supported by a rising channel and the 50-period EMA at $3,029.63.
With price action maintaining a comfortable distance above this moving average, momentum favors continued upside, provided the metal holds above immediate support at $3,055.67.
Additional support zones lie at $3,036.63 and $3,013.17—both of which could cushion any short-term pullbacks.
On the upside, immediate resistance is noted at $3,089.64. A decisive break above this level could pave the way toward $3,103.01, followed by a potential extension to $3,118.39.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently pointing upward but has yet to enter overbought territory, suggesting there is room for further gains before momentum stalls.
Gold’s bullish structure is further validated by the fact that price continues to respect both trendline and moving average support, while making higher highs and higher lows.
Traders may look to enter long positions above $3,070 with a target near $3,105, while keeping stops below $3,045 to manage downside risk.
Unless a sharp reversal breaks below $3,055, the current technical setup continues to favor buyers.
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S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis – March 28, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
The S&P 500 index has been facing challenges lately, dropping to an intra-day low of 5,670. This decline is due to concerns about various macroeconomic and geopolitical issues.
In the meantime, the uncertainty around US policy, the impact of increasing tariffs, and global trade disruptions are weighing on the market. Moreover, investors are worried about potential credit rating downgrades as rising government deficits and economic instability could lead to more risks for market stability.
US Policy Uncertainty Weighs on Market Sentiment
It should be noted that the announcement of new tariffs by US President Donald Trump on imported cars and light trucks has significantly impacted investor sentiment.
These new tariffs, along with Trump's planned reciprocal tariff announcements next week, have fueled fears of a trade war, further intensifying global economic uncertainty. This has resulted in a more cautious approach from investors, contributing to a decline in the S&P 500.
On the other hand, Moody's has warned that the combination of tax cuts and higher tariffs could widen the US government’s deficits, making a potential downgrade of the US debt rating more likely. This has raised alarms among investors, adding to the market's negative sentiment.
In the meantime, the S&P Global also warned that policy uncertainty in the US could hinder global economic growth, especially in emerging markets, while Fitch Ratings noted that smaller economies like Brazil, India, and Vietnam would be particularly vulnerable to these trade disruptions.
Therefore, the warnings from Moody’s, S&P Global, and Fitch Ratings about rising deficits, trade disruptions, and policy uncertainty heighten market concerns, leading to increased volatility and further pressure on the S&P 500 index.
Rising Treasury Yields and Economic Concerns
Another major factor affecting the S&P 500's performance is the rise in Treasury yields. As of the latest data, the 2-year US Treasury yield stood at 3.99%, and the 10-year yield was at 4.35%.
These higher yields suggest growing investor concerns about inflation and future interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.
Hence, the stronger US Dollar, supported by the higher yields, has also added downward pressure on the S&P 500.
US GDP Growth Surpasses Expectations Amid Escalating Global Trade Disruptions, Keeping S&P 500 Under Pressure
Despite the challenging outlook, the latest data on US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q4 2024 revealed a growth rate of 2.4%, surpassing expectations of 2.3%.
This positive GDP growth has led investors to look closely at upcoming economic indicators, including the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, due for release soon.
Meanwhile, global trade disruptions are escalating, with China’s push to strengthen its aluminum industry by 2027 and recent tariff threats from the US on copper imports adding further complexity to the market landscape.
Therefore, the stronger-than-expected GDP growth of 2.4% provides a positive outlook, but escalating global trade disruptions, including China's aluminum push and US tariff threats, add uncertainty, keeping the S&P 500 under pressure.
S&P 500 – Technical Analysis
The S&P 500 is trading at 5693.32, up 0.05%, continuing its slow grind higher as equity markets digest macroeconomic cues. The index remains above its key pivot point at 5673.60, supported by the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 5660.75.
This alignment signals continued bullish momentum in the short term, with traders maintaining confidence in the broader trend.
Immediate resistance is seen at 5784.91. A sustained break above this level could open the door to further upside toward 5865.56 and potentially 5968.80.
The overall price structure remains bullish, with the index trading within an upward channel on the 4-hour timeframe. While the relative strength index (RSI) hints at slightly overbought conditions, there is no immediate sign of reversal.
On the downside, support is found at 5606.24. A breach below this level may prompt a corrective pullback toward 5506.10, followed by deeper support near 5407.38.
However, unless price slips below the pivot and loses the EMA support, pullbacks are likely to be viewed as buying opportunities.
For now, the path of least resistance remains to the upside. A buy-on-dip strategy above 5670 remains favorable, with a target near 5842 and a stop-loss at 5587 for risk-managed positioning.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 28, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During Friday's European trading hours, the EUR/USD currency pair dropped to near the 1.0764 level, facing strong bearish pressure as trade tensions between the United States and the European Union (EU) escalated.
This sharp decline in the major currency pair comes ahead of the anticipated announcement by US President Donald Trump on April 2, which will impose reciprocal tariffs.
US Tariff Announcement Weighs on Market Sentiment
The US administration’s decision to impose 25% tariffs on automobile imports is a key driver behind the recent decline in EUR/USD. The tariffs, which will take effect on April 2, are expected to create turmoil in the global auto industry, with major impacts on both the US and European economies.
US imports of cars from Germany, which make up a large part of Germany's car exports, will get more expensive. This will make them less competitive in the global market. The news has caused a drop in the stock prices of car companies, adding to the overall negative market mood.
As a result, US Federal Reserve officials are worried that Trump's tariff plan could lead to higher inflation. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said the tariffs would raise inflation in the short term but could be temporary.
She also pointed out that the Fed should stay flexible with its policies, suggesting that keeping interest rates the same might be a good choice given these economic challenges.
Impact of US Tariff Plans on the Eurozone Economy and Trade Relations
On the other side, as the US tariff plans ramp up, the European Commission (EC) is preparing to impose retaliatory tariffs on US products. This growing trade tension is creating more uncertainty for the Euro. German car manufacturers, who rely heavily on exports to the US, are especially worried.
The proposed tariffs could significantly hurt their ability to compete in the US market, impacting the Eurozone’s overall economic growth.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has criticized the US for its protectionist approach, warning that these tariffs would create a lose-lose scenario for both sides.
The European Central Bank (ECB) has also raised concerns about the economic impact of Trump’s trade policies. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos warned that while the inflationary impact might be temporary, the tariffs could have long-lasting effects on economic growth in the Eurozone.
Slower Inflation Data in France and Spain Offers Temporary Relief for the Euro Amid Trade Concerns
On the economic front, the latest inflation data from France and Spain has shown slower-than-expected price pressures, providing some temporary relief for the Euro. France’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March rose by 0.9%, lower than the expected 1.1%.
Similarly, Spain’s Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) showed a slowdown in inflation, rising 2.2% compared to 2.9% in the prior period.
However, the softer inflation numbers are unlikely to prevent the continued decline of the Euro, as the broader trade and tariff concerns overshadow the inflation data.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is trading modestly lower at $1.07870, down 0.01% as the euro struggles to regain footing amid mixed technical signals and cautious market sentiment.
Price action remains below the pivot point at $1.08058, indicating a short-term bearish bias while the pair hovers just under the 50-period EMA at $1.07942.
The technical outlook suggests that euro bears are maintaining control for now, as the pair continues to drift within a descending channel on the 4-hour chart.
Immediate support is noted at $1.07656, a level that previously provided a short-term bounce. A sustained break below this could expose deeper support levels at $1.07214 and $1.06790.
On the upside, resistance stands at $1.08544, followed by $1.08841 and $1.09177—key areas that bulls would need to overcome to shift sentiment meaningfully.
Momentum indicators remain subdued, and without a catalyst to propel the euro above its pivot, sellers may continue to dominate.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains neutral, giving neither side a definitive edge, but the broader structure favors downside as long as EUR/USD remains capped below the $1.08058 threshold.
From a tactical standpoint, a short position below $1.08052 may offer a favorable setup, with targets at $1.07406 and a stop placed near $1.08364.
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- GOLD Price Analysis – March 28, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – March 27, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) surged higher on Thursday, gaining around 1.18%, trading at $3,055, as market concerns about the escalating trade tensions between the United States and its major trading partners led investors to flock to the precious metal.
However, the spike in gold prices was primarily fueled by the latest trade war developments, following US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a new 25% tariff on auto imports.
Trade Tensions and Tariff Threats Drive Gold’s Safe-Haven Appeal
President Trump’s decision to implement a 25% tariff on all cars not made in the United States has raised fears of retaliatory measures, including potential duties on lumber, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals.
This uncertainty has led to an increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, with investors seeking protection against the potential economic fallout. The situation is still unclear, with many unsure about the details of the tariffs that will be introduced on April 2nd and 3rd, which is adding to market worries.
Meanwhile, the ongoing legal battle between Sibanye and Gold Fields over property valuations has added to the uncertainty surrounding gold mining operations, contributing to the overall bullish sentiment in the gold market.
Goldman Sachs Raises Gold Price Forecast to $3,300
In response to the market uncertainty, Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end gold price forecast to $3,300 per ounce, citing stronger-than-expected central bank demand and solid inflows into bullion-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
The bank’s revised outlook reflects the growing confidence in gold’s role as a hedge against rising trade risks and inflation concerns. With central banks globally continuing to accumulate gold, the precious metal’s bullish momentum is expected to continue, bolstered by these factors.
Mixed Market Sentiment and the US Dollar’s Weakness
On the broader market front, the US dollar continues to struggle, providing further support for gold. The US dollar remains under pressure as market participants anticipate the potential impact of additional tariffs, as well as growing speculation about interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
Therefore, the struggling US dollar makes gold more attractive to investors, as it strengthens gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. The anticipation of tariffs and rate cuts further supports gold’s price.
Looking ahead, traders are closely monitoring further developments in the trade dispute and any changes in US monetary policy that could influence gold’s performance in the coming months.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) continues to show resilience despite modest intraday pressure, currently trading near $3,028.27.
The metal is consolidating just above its key pivot point at $3,021.46, which also aligns closely with the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $3,021.41. This convergence is acting as a short-term anchor, maintaining the metal’s bullish structure.
On the upside, the first resistance level is located at $3,039.33. A sustained move above this level could open the door to $3,047.18 and potentially $3,057.66, the latter of which marks last week’s high and a critical breakout point.
However, bulls need a convincing push through $3,039.33 to reassert control and challenge these higher targets.
On the downside, immediate support rests at $3,005.28. A breach here could expose gold to a deeper pullback toward $2,993.39 and $2,982.18.
These levels represent key technical defenses that have previously triggered buying interest. A close below $2,982 would indicate a breakdown from the current bullish setup.
From a trading perspective, the structure favors a tactical long position above $3,021, targeting $3,039 while maintaining a stop at $3,011 to mitigate downside risk.
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- AUD/USD Price Analysis – March 27, 2025
AUD/USD Price Analysis – March 27, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the Asian trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair experienced notable weakness, falling to a low of 0.6615. This decline was primarily driven by fresh concerns over US auto tariffs, a more cautious outlook from the Federal Reserve, and the anticipation of Chinese economic stimulus.
However, the Australian Dollar (AUD) managed to find some support, aided by Australia's strong trade relationships and commodity exports. Now, the AUD/USD pair has rebounded, reaching an intra-day high of 0.6319, successfully recovering its earlier losses.
US Auto Tariffs Escalate Trade Tensions, Weigh on Market Sentiment
The AUD/USD pair came under pressure after President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 25% tariff on auto imports, set to take effect on April 2.
This move has raised concerns about escalating global trade tensions, with investors worried about the potential economic impact of the tariffs.
Additionally, Trump suggested the possibility of imposing tariffs on copper imports. While this could benefit Australia’s copper-exporting economy, it also added to the overall uncertainty in global markets.
Despite the tariff concerns, the market received some relief when Trump offered a one-month reprieve for auto parts imports. However, these ongoing tariff disputes continued to overshadow the AUD’s ability to gain strength.
Fed Policy Uncertainty and Impact on the USD
On the US front, the US Dollar Index (DXY) retreated from its recent highs, trading around 104.50 as market participants digested the latest economic data.
US Treasury yields, which had been providing support to the USD, showed signs of easing, with the 2-year and 10-year yields hovering at 4.0% and 4.34%, respectively. These declines were compounded by the growing uncertainty surrounding US Federal Reserve policy.
St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari both spoke about the challenges the Fed faces in managing inflation.
Kashkari highlighted that there is still more to be done. The uncertainty about the Fed's future decisions, combined with market concerns about an economic slowdown due to trade tensions, put pressure on the US Dollar. As a result, the Australian Dollar (AUD) gained some strength.
Chinese Stimulus and Australian Inflation Data Support AUD Amid Cautious Outlook
On the other hand, expectations of Chinese stimulus helped support the Australian Dollar (AUD), thanks to the strong trade ties between Australia and China.
The Chinese government's plans to boost consumption by raising wages and easing financial burdens are seen as positive for Australia's export-driven economy.
This stimulus could improve consumer confidence in China, which is a key trading partner for Australia, and help increase demand for Australian commodities.
At the same time, Australia’s Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February showed a slight dip to 2.4%, which was below expectations but still reflected a stable inflation environment.
This muted inflation figure, coupled with the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) decision to maintain interest rates steady, added to the cautious outlook for the Australian Dollar.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
The Australian dollar is inching higher against the U.S. dollar, currently trading at $0.63157, as the pair holds above its key pivot point at $0.62948.
This level also aligns closely with the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.62945, reinforcing short-term technical support and signaling a modestly bullish tone.
Immediate resistance is seen at $0.63304. A sustained break above this threshold could set the stage for a rally toward $0.63587, followed by a key ceiling at $0.63907—levels that have capped upside moves in previous sessions.
However, buyers will need continued momentum to push through these levels, especially with broader risk sentiment in flux.
On the downside, immediate support sits at $0.62580. A drop below this could open a path to $0.62306 and $0.62060, where buying interest may re-emerge.
These levels should be watched closely in the event of a sentiment shift or stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data later this week.
Technically, the structure favors a long bias above $0.62947, with a short-term target of $0.63426 and a stop loss set at $0.62692 to manage risk.
The pair continues to consolidate within a modest upward channel, supported by the 50 EMA, suggesting underlying demand remains intact.
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USD/JPY Price Analysis – March 27, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the USD/JPY managed to gain traction and remained well bid around the 150.90 level.
However, the reason for its upward trend can be attributed to a combination of factors, including global risk sentiment, trade tensions, and expectations surrounding the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) interest rate hike.
USD/JPY Surge Amid Risk Sentiment and Trade Tensions
The Japanese Yen (JPY) faced some intraday selling pressure after a slight improvement in global risk sentiment, fueled by hopes for further stimulus measures from China. This development undermined the traditional safe-haven appeal of the JPY.
However, the uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump's tariff plans, particularly the 25% tariffs on imported vehicles and auto parts set to take effect on April 2, continued to weigh on global sentiment, acting as a support for the safe-haven Yen.
BoJ's Rate Hike Expectations and Fed's Dovish Stance Strengthen JPY
Furthermore, the ongoing expectations that the BoJ will continue raising interest rates, supported by strong wage growth and inflationary trends, have contributed to the JPY’s strength.
BoJ’s new board member, Junko Koeda, noted that inflation was moving toward the 2% target sustainably, strengthening the belief in further tightening. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's dovish stance, signaling potential rate cuts later this year, has widened the divergence between the Fed and the BoJ, supporting the JPY's appeal.
USD/JPY Under Pressure as Economic Data and Fed Rate Cut Speculation Keep Traders Cautious
On the other hand, a modest pullback in the US Dollar (USD) from its recent three-week high prevented the USD/JPY from reaching higher levels. Economic data, including the February durable goods orders and expectations for the upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, also kept traders cautious.
With the Federal Reserve signaling two potential rate cuts this year, market participants are closely watching the release of the US PCE index on Friday for further indications of the Fed's rate path.
Moving ahead, traders are waiting for important economic data, including Tokyo’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, set to be released on Friday.
Apart from this, the market will continue to focus on geopolitical tensions and central bank policies, which are likely to drive the next moves in the USD/JPY.
USD/JPY – Technical Analysis
The USD/JPY pair is trading slightly higher at 150.418, maintaining its position above the key pivot point of 150.082. The 50-period Exponential Moving Average, currently at 150.042, aligns closely with this pivot, acting as a technical base and reinforcing short-term bullish sentiment.
The immediate resistance sits at 150.946. A decisive break above this level could propel the pair toward the next resistance zones at 151.317 and 151.714.
These levels mark key psychological and historical barriers, and a sustained advance through them may signal a continuation of the broader uptrend fueled by policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan.
On the downside, initial support rests at 149.560, followed by 149.145 and deeper at 148.612. A break below these zones would challenge the current bullish structure and suggest a potential shift in momentum, particularly if accompanied by dovish U.S. economic data or geopolitical risk aversion.
As long as the price holds above the pivot and 50 EMA, the bullish bias remains intact. A suggested entry above 150.089 targets a move to 150.887, with a stop loss at 149.651 to manage downside risk.
Traders should monitor upcoming U.S. inflation and job data for fresh directional cues, as these may significantly impact Fed rate expectations and dollar flows.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 26, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading hours on Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair climbed towards 1.0780, benefiting from a weaker US dollar.
The Greenback came under pressure following disappointing US economic data and rising uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump’s trade policy.
Although, the upside remains limited due to the ECB’s dovish tone. Traders will closely monitor upcoming US economic data and any developments regarding Trump’s trade tariffs, which could influence the next moves in the currency market.
US Economic Data Signals Weakness, Weighing on the Dollar
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar remained on the back foot after Tuesday’s release of weak consumer confidence data.
The Conference Board reported that US consumer confidence dropped to its lowest level in more than four years in March, reflecting heightened concerns over economic slowdown and policy uncertainty.
This has fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve might consider further policy adjustments to support economic stability.
On the flip side, Investors remain cautious as uncertainty looms over Trump’s reciprocal tariff plans set for next week.
On Monday, Trump hinted that not all tariffs would be imposed on the April 2 deadline and that some countries might receive exemptions, but he provided no further details.
The lack of clarity has heightened market anxiety, adding to pressure on the US dollar and contributed to the EUR/USD pair losses.
ECB Dovish Signals Could Cap Euro Gains
Despite the US dollar’s weakness, the dovish signals from the European Central Bank (ECB) could limit the euro’s upside trend.
ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau suggested on Tuesday that there is still room for further rate cuts, indicating that the deposit rate could decline from 2.5% to 2% by the end of summer.
ECB policymaker Fabio Panetta stressed the need for a data-driven approach, noting that as inflation falls and interest rates reach neutral levels, policy decisions become more uncertain. This suggests the ECB may take a cautious stance, potentially slowing the euro’s rise against the US dollar.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.07875, posting a slight gain of +0.02% in early European hours. Despite the modest uptick, the currency remains below its pivot point at $1.08058, signaling that bearish sentiment still lingers as price action struggles to gain upside traction.
The 4-hour chart shows price comfortably beneath the 50-period EMA at $1.08608, further reinforcing near-term downside pressure.
Immediate resistance is located at $1.08544, aligning closely with the 50 EMA, followed by additional barriers at $1.08841 and $1.09177. Bulls would need a decisive break above these levels to reassert control, but current momentum indicators suggest a lack of conviction from buyers.
On the downside, $1.07656 serves as immediate support, followed by $1.07214 and $1.06780, levels that could come into play if selling accelerates below the pivot.
Given the current technical structure, a short bias remains favored below $1.08056, with a tactical sell setup targeting $1.07433, and a stop loss positioned at $1.08368 to manage risk. RSI and MACD indicators lean neutral to slightly bearish, with no clear signs of reversal yet.
In summary, while price hovers just below key resistance, the path of least resistance appears to favor sellers unless buyers reclaim ground above the $1.085 level with conviction.
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GBP/USD Price Analysis – March 26, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair extended its losing streak, trading around 1.2908 and hitting an intra-day low of 1.2887.
The British Pound faced significant selling pressure following the release of the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for February, which indicated a faster-than-expected decline in inflation.
On the data front, the headline CPI increased 2.8% year-over-year (YoY), falling short of market expectations of 2.9% and down from January’s 3.0% increase.
Core CPI, which excludes volatile items, rose by 3.5%, missing forecasts of 3.6% and declining from the previous release of 3.7%. On a monthly basis, headline CPI grew 0.4% after a -0.1% reading in January, falling short of the 0.5% estimate.
Therefore, the Bank of England (BoE) closely monitors UK service inflation, which remained steady at 5%. While the softer inflation figures reinforced market expectations for a BoE rate cut, sticky services inflation may prevent traders from fully pricing in a rate cut as soon as May.
UK Fiscal Policy and Political Developments Add to Pound Weakness
Moreover, market participants are preparing for more volatility in the British Pound as UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves is set to deliver the Spring Statement at 12:30 GMT.
She is expected to announce cuts in welfare spending and stick to her stance of not raising taxes. Instead, she plans to rely on foreign financing for funding investments.
In addition, Reeves is likely to reveal a £2.2 billion increase in defense spending, partly due to the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty caused by the Ukraine war, as reported by BBC News.
Therefore, the prospect of reduced fiscal spending could weigh on the Pound, as lower government expenditure may slow economic growth and keep inflation pressures subdued, reinforcing expectations of BoE monetary easing.
US Dollar Steadies Ahead of Key Inflation Data
Meanwhile, the GBP/USD pair faced additional downward pressure as the US Dollar stabilized despite uncertainty over potential tariffs by former President Donald Trump, set to be announced on April 2. The US Dollar Index (DXY) edged higher to 104.40, reflecting cautious sentiment in global markets.
Trump has reiterated his threats to impose tariffs but suggested that several countries may receive exemptions.
While traders speculate on the potential impact on US economic growth, the move could lead to renewed inflationary pressures, complicating the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.
Looking ahead, investors focus on the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for February, scheduled for release on Friday.
Meanwhile, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the core PCE index, is expected to rise 2.7% year-over-year, slightly above the previous reading of 2.6%.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the Fed is widely expected to maintain its current interest rate range of 4.25%-4.50% in May, but markets are pricing in a 65% probability of a rate cut in June.
Therefore, the combination of softer UK inflation, cautious fiscal policy expectations, and steady US dollar performance is likely to keep GBP/USD under pressure in the near term as traders assess the BoE and Fed’s monetary policy paths.
GBP/USD – Technical Analysis
The GBP/USD pair is trading at $1.29359, registering a modest gain of +0.04%, as the pound holds steady above its pivot point at $1.29271. Price action remains constructive on the 4-hour chart, supported by an upward bias as long as it stays above the pivot.
The pair is testing the 50-period EMA at $1.29408, which now serves as an immediate technical barrier. A confirmed break above this level would reinforce short-term bullish momentum.
Immediate resistance is located at $1.29740, with the next upside targets at $1.30138 and $1.30457. A move beyond these levels could open the door for further gains, particularly if upcoming U.S. data pressures the dollar.
On the downside, initial support lies at $1.28879, followed by $1.28616 and $1.28212, where buyers may reemerge if the pair retraces.
From a technical standpoint, the pair is positioned for further upside as long as it holds above $1.29277, which coincides with the pivot and is near the current trading range.
The recommended strategy favors a buy-on-break above this level, with a take-profit target set at $1.29880, while a stop-loss is advised at $1.28996 to mitigate risk.
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- GOLD Price Analysis – March 26, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – March 26, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices are finding it tough to hold recent gains, with XAU/USD hovering just above the crucial $3,000 mark on Wednesday.
Investors remain on edge as mixed economic signals and shifting Federal Reserve expectations create uncertainty in the market.
While expectations of Fed rate cuts continue to provide support, a modest rebound in the U.S. dollar and upbeat sentiment in equity markets are limiting gold’s upward trend.
Traders are now watching key U.S. economic data releases, including Durable Goods Orders and speeches from Fed officials, which could sway sentiment around both the dollar and gold.
Mixed Economic Signals Keep Investors on Edge
The U.S. dollar has gained traction after hitting a three-week low, fueled by investor caution ahead of upcoming economic reports.
However, Tuesday’s Consumer Confidence Index painted a gloomy picture, dropping to 92.9—the lowest in four years.
In the meantime, the Expectations Index, which reflects consumer outlook, fell to a 12-year low of 65.2, often seen as a sign of a potential recession.
Despite this, the Fed remains cautious. Governor Adriana Kugler pushed back against aggressive rate cuts, arguing that inflation risks still linger.
However, markets are pricing in rate cuts as early as June, with additional easing expected in July and October. With the Fed lowering its growth outlook, gold traders are closely watching whether incoming data will reinforce the case for a looser monetary policy.
Trade Tensions and Geopolitical Uncertainty Weigh on Sentiment
On the other hand, the former President Donald Trump’s proposed tariff plans for April 2 are making investors nervous. His administration is reportedly considering reciprocal tariffs on 15 major trading partners, which could reignite global trade tensions.
Meanwhile, Trump’s secondary sanctions on Venezuela are adding further complications to the geopolitical landscape.
On a positive note, U.S.-mediated negotiations have led to a temporary halt in military strikes between Russia and Ukraine in the Black Sea and energy infrastructure.
Meanwhile, China’s latest stimulus measures are boosting domestic consumption, fueling optimism in global markets. However, this renewed risk appetite is dampening gold’s safe-haven appeal in the short term.
What’s Next? Key Data to Watch
Moving ahead, traders now have their eyes on Wednesday’s U.S. Durable Goods Orders report, followed by the highly anticipated Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index on Friday—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
If inflation shows further signs of softening, it could reinforce expectations for aggressive rate cuts, providing a tailwind for gold prices.
However, any surprises to the upside in inflation data could strengthen the dollar and pressure gold lower.
For now, gold is struggling to stay above $3,000 as traders deal with mixed economic signals, changing Fed policies, and global uncertainties.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $3,024.43, showing marginal gains of +0.02%, as the market holds steady above its key pivot point at $3,014.07.
The broader structure remains constructive, with price action supported by the 50-period EMA at $3,019.71, which continues to act as a dynamic support level on the 4-hour chart.
Immediate resistance lies at $3,033.81, and a clean break above this level would open the path toward $3,053.86, followed by the higher resistance at $3,071.37.
These levels align with previous swing highs, making them critical zones to monitor for potential bullish continuation.
On the downside, $3,000.06 serves as the immediate support level, followed by deeper cushions at $2,982.18 and $2,966.96, where the price could stabilize if momentum shifts lower.
Technically, the price remains above the 50 EMA, reinforcing short-term strength. Momentum indicators are neutral, suggesting consolidation before a potential breakout.
The trendline structure remains intact, and as long as gold maintains price action above $3,015, buying interest is expected to dominate.
The near-term strategy favors a buy-above-$3,015 approach, with an initial target at $3,035 and a protective stop just below the support line at $3,005.
A move below this would invalidate the bullish setup and increase the probability of a pullback toward the $2,980 zone.
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USD/CAD Price Analysis – March 25, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the USD/CAD currency pair is currently trading around 1.4320, recovering after losses in the previous session.
The pair, which is usually sensitive to market risk sentiment, is gaining strength as traders remain cautious ahead of US President Donald Trump’s upcoming tariff announcement on April 2.
The uncertainty surrounding the potential for new tariffs is affecting investor sentiment, but the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is finding some support due to mixed signals from Trump’s comments. This balance of caution and uncertainty is keeping the pair in focus for traders.
Risk Aversion and Tariff Expectations Impacting USD/CAD
On the CAD front, the Canadian dollar has been buoyed by comments from Trump, who hinted that "a lot" of countries could receive exemptions from the tariffs, though details remain uncertain.
This sparked some optimism among investors, who welcomed the possibility that the US may adopt a more targeted, measured approach to tariffs. This easing of concerns over potential disruptions to Canadian businesses has provided support for the CAD, allowing it to recover against the USD.
Despite this, the US dollar faced pressure due to rising fears of an economic slowdown, fueled in part by concerns surrounding Trump’s trade policies. The uncertainty surrounding the tariff announcement has led to a risk-off sentiment in the markets, with investors seeking safer assets.
However, the pressure on the USD has been somewhat offset by hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell last week. Powell emphasized the solid labor market and inflation moving closer to the Fed’s 2% target, which helped to support the Greenback.
US Economic Data Provides Mixed Signals
On the economic front, the latest data paints a mixed picture for the US economy. The S&P Global US Composite PMI for March rose to 53.5, marking a strong recovery from February’s 10-month low of 51.6 and signaling the strongest expansion since December 2024.
This growth was largely driven by a sharp rebound in business activity in the services sector. The S&P Global US Services PMI surged to a three-month high of 54.3, surpassing expectations and showing a marked improvement from February’s reading of 51.0.
On the other hand, the Manufacturing PMI showed signs of weakness, slipping to 49.8 from 52.7 and falling short of expectations. This decline followed February’s strong manufacturing growth, indicating that while the services sector remains robust, the manufacturing sector is facing headwinds.
Therefore, the mixed US economic data, with strong services growth but weak manufacturing, could create volatility in the USD/CAD pair, as traders weigh the overall strength of the US economy.
USD/CAD – Technical Analysis
USD/CAD is trading marginally lower at $1.43282, just above its pivot point at $1.43084, maintaining a cautiously bullish tone in early trading.
The 4-hour chart shows the pair consolidating above a key support level, with the 50-period EMA positioned at $1.43445. Price action remains tightly compressed between this EMA and immediate resistance at $1.43596, signaling indecision but with an upward lean.
A break above $1.43596 would indicate renewed bullish momentum, potentially lifting the pair toward the next resistance levels at $1.44013 and $1.44518. These zones represent areas of recent selling interest and will be critical in determining the sustainability of any breakout.
On the downside, if the pair dips below the pivot at $1.43084, immediate support lies at $1.42661. A further breakdown may expose deeper levels at $1.42125 and $1.41602, with the latter serving as a major trendline support zone.
As long as the pair stays above the pivot and reclaims the 50-EMA, short-term bias remains upward. However, any failure to hold above $1.43084 could shift control back to sellers.
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