USD/CAD Price Analysis – March 25, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the USD/CAD currency pair is currently trading around 1.4320, recovering after losses in the previous session.
The pair, which is usually sensitive to market risk sentiment, is gaining strength as traders remain cautious ahead of US President Donald Trump’s upcoming tariff announcement on April 2.
The uncertainty surrounding the potential for new tariffs is affecting investor sentiment, but the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is finding some support due to mixed signals from Trump’s comments. This balance of caution and uncertainty is keeping the pair in focus for traders.
Risk Aversion and Tariff Expectations Impacting USD/CAD
On the CAD front, the Canadian dollar has been buoyed by comments from Trump, who hinted that "a lot" of countries could receive exemptions from the tariffs, though details remain uncertain.
This sparked some optimism among investors, who welcomed the possibility that the US may adopt a more targeted, measured approach to tariffs. This easing of concerns over potential disruptions to Canadian businesses has provided support for the CAD, allowing it to recover against the USD.
Despite this, the US dollar faced pressure due to rising fears of an economic slowdown, fueled in part by concerns surrounding Trump’s trade policies. The uncertainty surrounding the tariff announcement has led to a risk-off sentiment in the markets, with investors seeking safer assets.
However, the pressure on the USD has been somewhat offset by hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell last week. Powell emphasized the solid labor market and inflation moving closer to the Fed’s 2% target, which helped to support the Greenback.
US Economic Data Provides Mixed Signals
On the economic front, the latest data paints a mixed picture for the US economy. The S&P Global US Composite PMI for March rose to 53.5, marking a strong recovery from February’s 10-month low of 51.6 and signaling the strongest expansion since December 2024.
This growth was largely driven by a sharp rebound in business activity in the services sector. The S&P Global US Services PMI surged to a three-month high of 54.3, surpassing expectations and showing a marked improvement from February’s reading of 51.0.
On the other hand, the Manufacturing PMI showed signs of weakness, slipping to 49.8 from 52.7 and falling short of expectations. This decline followed February’s strong manufacturing growth, indicating that while the services sector remains robust, the manufacturing sector is facing headwinds.
Therefore, the mixed US economic data, with strong services growth but weak manufacturing, could create volatility in the USD/CAD pair, as traders weigh the overall strength of the US economy.
USD/CAD – Technical Analysis
USD/CAD is trading marginally lower at $1.43282, just above its pivot point at $1.43084, maintaining a cautiously bullish tone in early trading.
The 4-hour chart shows the pair consolidating above a key support level, with the 50-period EMA positioned at $1.43445. Price action remains tightly compressed between this EMA and immediate resistance at $1.43596, signaling indecision but with an upward lean.
A break above $1.43596 would indicate renewed bullish momentum, potentially lifting the pair toward the next resistance levels at $1.44013 and $1.44518. These zones represent areas of recent selling interest and will be critical in determining the sustainability of any breakout.
On the downside, if the pair dips below the pivot at $1.43084, immediate support lies at $1.42661. A further breakdown may expose deeper levels at $1.42125 and $1.41602, with the latter serving as a major trendline support zone.
As long as the pair stays above the pivot and reclaims the 50-EMA, short-term bias remains upward. However, any failure to hold above $1.43084 could shift control back to sellers.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis – March 25, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair remained steady, trading around 0.6319, with an intra-day high of 0.6323.
Despite some underlying challenges, the Australian Dollar (AUD) has been supported by expectations of a cautious approach from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), along with the anticipation of continued Chinese stimulus to boost the Australian economy.
However, the pair faces some challenges from growing concerns over the Australian government's budget deficit and the potential impact of US trade policies.
Australia's Budget Deficit and Economic Outlook
The Australian economy faces a rising budget deficit, with the Treasury projecting a deficit of A$27.6 billion for 2024-25, widening to A$42.1 billion in 2025-26. Despite this, Australia's GDP growth is expected to stabilize at 2.25% in fiscal 2026 and 2.5% in fiscal 2027.
The Australian Treasurer, Jim Chalmers, also announced new tax cuts totaling approximately A$17.1 billion, aimed at garnering political support ahead of upcoming elections.
While these measures could support domestic consumption, the growing budget deficit raises concerns about fiscal sustainability and may limit the Australian government's ability to respond to future economic challenges.
Investors are also looking ahead to the RBA's decisions, with many speculating that the central bank will keep interest rates unchanged in April after its first rate cut in four years in February.
Moreover, the Australian economy continues to benefit from its strong trade ties with China, particularly as Chinese policymakers implement measures to stimulate domestic consumption and revitalize their economy.
US Dollar Strengthened by Services PMI Surge
On the US front, the US dollar strengthened amid a surge in the Services PMI, which climbed to 54.3 in March from 51.0 in February, signaling a robust rebound in business activity. The increase in the Services PMI marked a three-month high, further indicating economic resilience despite mixed signals from other sectors.
Meanwhile, the S&P Global US Composite PMI also rose to 53.5, up from February's 51.6, highlighting continued expansion in the economy. However, the US manufacturing sector experienced a slowdown, with the Manufacturing PMI dropping to 49.8, falling short of market expectations.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has remained stable around 104.30, buoyed by these positive services sector data. While inflation remains a concern for the Federal Reserve, the hawkish stance of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who noted that inflation is moving closer to the 2% target, has provided support for the USD.
Therefore, the stronger US dollar, driven by robust services sector data and Fed's hawkish stance, likely puts downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair, as the USD outperforms the AUD.
Geopolitical Risks and US Trade Policies Impact on AUD/USD
Despite positive data from both the US and Australia, the AUD/USD pair faces risks due to uncertainty around US trade policies. US President Trump's upcoming tariff announcement in early April could affect global trade and economic growth. Although Trump suggested some countries might be exempt from the tariffs, the full details of the plan are still unclear, leaving traders cautious.
Additionally, there are concerns that the US economy could slow down due to trade tensions and the impact of tariffs on key industries like agriculture and coal. These factors could add volatility to the AUD/USD pair, as traders weigh the strong US Dollar against the potential risks to Australia's economy.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) is treading water around $0.62861 in Tuesday’s early European session, showing little change on the day.
Despite the neutral tone, price action is gradually aligning with a short-term bullish bias, underpinned by support above the pivot point at $0.62679.
The 4-hour chart reveals consolidation just beneath the 50-period EMA at $0.63170—a level that’s currently acting as a dynamic resistance ceiling.
A decisive move above $0.63172, the immediate resistance level, would confirm bullish control and could open the door toward the next upside targets at $0.63510 and $0.63907.
These levels coincide with recent supply zones, where sellers have historically emerged. Sustained momentum above the 50-EMA could also suggest that buyers are preparing for a broader recovery leg.
On the downside, immediate support is located at $0.62342, followed by $0.61966 and the deeper floor at $0.61599.
A break below $0.62679 would negate the bullish setup and increase the risk of a slide toward those lower supports.
The broader context remains mixed, with AUD/USD reacting to shifting U.S. rate expectations, commodity sentiment, and Asia-Pacific macro data.
For now, the technicals suggest cautious optimism, but confirmation above $0.63172 is needed before bulls can fully commit to higher targets.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 24, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair stopped its three-day decline, trading around 1.0840 on Monday morning.
This rebound happened due to growing concerns over a possible slowdown in the US economy, partly caused by trade policy uncertainties under President Donald Trump, which have negatively impacted the US Dollar.
As a result, investors are now focused on the recently released Eurozone’s manufacturing sector data, which showed some signs of recovery. This was seen as another key factor that underpinned the EUR/USD pair.
Mixed Eurozone PMI Data Impacts EUR/USD Performance
On the EUR front, the Eurozone’s manufacturing sector showed some signs of recovery, while the services sector underperformed in March.
According to the latest data from the HCOB Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) Survey, the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI improved to 48.7 in March, up from 47.6 in February, surpassing the market expectation of 48. This marks a slight easing of the manufacturing contraction, providing some support for the Euro.
Meanwhile, the Services PMI in the Eurozone declined to 50.4 in March from 50.6 in February, falling short of the anticipated 51 and marking a four-month low.
The HCOB Eurozone PMI Composite increased slightly to 50.4 in March, from 50.2 in February, reflecting a modest improvement in overall business activity across the region.
In Germany, the region's largest economy, the manufacturing sector performed better than expected, with the Manufacturing PMI rising to 48.3 in March, up from 46.5 in February and surpassing the expected 47.7.
This was the highest reading in 31 months, signaling a recovery in the industrial sector. On the other hand, the Services PMI in Germany fell to 50.2, down from 51.1 in February, hitting a four-month low and adding to concerns about the region's growth prospects.
Therefore, the mixed PMI data, with manufacturing showing recovery and services underperforming, may support the Euro but limit its upside, keeping the EUR/USD pair range-bound as investors await further economic signals.
US Economic Concerns and Geopolitical Developments Weigh on the Dollar
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar remains under pressure due to growing concerns over President Trump's trade policies, especially his approach to reciprocal tariffs.
However, the White House is revising its tariff strategy ahead of the April 2 deadline, with reports suggesting some industry-specific tariffs may be dropped while new tariffs will be imposed on countries with strong trade ties to the US.
This move aims to address trade imbalances but has raised concerns that it could slow down global economic growth, particularly in the Eurozone, which is closely tied to US trade.
Moreover, the geopolitical tensions also played a role in market sentiment, with easing concerns following talks between Ukrainian and US officials in Riyadh over the weekend.
The ongoing efforts to broker a ceasefire in the Ukraine war and President Trump’s calls for an end to the conflict have helped reduce some geopolitical risk, contributing to improved investor sentiment.
Therefore, the US dollar’s pressure from trade policy concerns and geopolitical tensions, alongside improved sentiment from the Ukraine talks, could lead to a weaker dollar, potentially supporting a higher EUR/USD pair.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is trading slightly lower at $1.08457, down 0.02% on the day, as the pair navigates a tight range ahead of key U.S. economic data later this week.
Despite the marginal pullback, the euro remains above the pivotal support at $1.08049—a level that continues to attract buying interest and has helped stabilize recent price action.
Technically, the 4-hour chart reveals that EUR/USD is caught between its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.08802 and the pivot zone near $1.08049.
A clear move above the EMA could trigger fresh upside momentum toward immediate resistance at $1.08680, followed by $1.09177 and $1.09516.
These levels correspond to recent consolidation zones and would likely require increased volume to break decisively.
On the downside, should the pair slip below $1.08049, initial support rests at $1.07656, with deeper floors at $1.07214 and $1.06780. A breach below $1.07656 would indicate waning bullish control and potentially invite additional selling pressure.
As long as the pair holds above $1.08049, the near-term bias remains slightly bullish—but momentum is fragile and driven by upcoming data catalysts.
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- GOLD Price Analysis – March 24, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – March 24, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) managed to stop its downward trend and gained momentum above the $3,030 level. However, this upward movement could be short-lived due to improved market sentiment following news about changes in US trade policy.
The Trump administration is considering easing the broad tariffs imposed on April 2 and shifting to more targeted tariffs focused on specific sectors or regions.
This shift has reduced market concerns about the possibility of widespread retaliatory tariffs, which could hurt the global economy.
While the goal of these tariffs is to bring manufacturing back to the US, experts believe that much higher tariffs, along with government subsidies, would be needed to truly reshuffle global supply chains.
Therefore, the potential easing of broad tariffs and shift to targeted tariffs could reduce market uncertainty, weakening gold's safe-haven appeal and potentially halting its upward momentum in the short term.
US Dollar Pulls Back Amid Economic Concerns and Fed Tightening Signals
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar edged lower, pulling back from its three-day winning streak and trading around 104.00.
This decline comes amid increasing concerns about a potential slowdown in the US economy, partly due to President Trump's trade policies.
However, the Greenback had briefly strengthened after hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell last week, where he mentioned that while the labor market is strong and inflation is moving closer to the Fed's 2% target, it remains above desired levels.
This suggests that the Fed might continue tightening its monetary policy. However, overall market sentiment remains cautious.
Gold Gains Appeal Amid US Dollar Weakness and Rising Global Risks
Despite the weakness of the US dollar, gold remains a popular safe-haven asset as global economic and geopolitical risks increase.
Traders are paying close attention to the potential effects of new tariffs, changes in trade policies, and ongoing tensions with China.
This market uncertainty, along with growing demand for gold, has made the precious metal even more attractive.
At the same time, Chinese metals producer Zijin Mining Group reported record profits, thanks to rising gold and copper prices.
The company also highlighted growing global economic risks, reinforcing the idea that investors are turning to gold amid rising market uncertainty.
Despite the challenges ahead, gold’s performance will likely be influenced by the results of US trade policies and upcoming economic data.
The March US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI could offer insights into the US economy’s health, which may affect investor sentiment towards gold.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading slightly lower at $3,023.95, down 0.04% on the day, as investors digest shifting interest rate expectations and geopolitical headlines.
The metal is consolidating within a well-defined range, holding just above its key pivot point at $3,014.07. This zone is critical for near-term direction, as a sustained break above this level could reinforce the bullish case.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), currently at $3,033.70, acts as immediate dynamic resistance.
A break above this EMA would open the door for a retest of the first resistance at $3,033.81, followed by $3,053.86 and the upper barrier at $3,071.37. These levels align with recent swing highs and represent important technical hurdles for buyers.
On the downside, gold is finding initial support at $3,000.06. A break below this figure could trigger a deeper pullback toward $2,982.18 and $2,966.96, the latter coinciding with the lower boundary of the current ascending channel.
Despite today’s marginal decline, gold’s broader structure remains intact as long as price holds above the $3,000 psychological level.
Traders are watching closely for confirmation of direction, especially ahead of key U.S. economic data releases later this week.
A decisive move above $3,033 could spark bullish momentum toward $3,046—close to the short-term take-profit zone. Conversely, a breach below $2,999 would likely invalidate the current bullish setup.
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GBP/USD Price Analysis – March 24, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair maintained its upward trend and remained well-bid around 1.2961, hitting the intra-day high of 1.2975.
The reason for this upward movement can be linked to a softer US Dollar, which is under pressure due to growing concerns over the potential US economic slowdown.
Additionally, uncertainty surrounding President Trump's impending trade policies, particularly his aggressive stance on tariffs, has added to the bearish sentiment around the Greenback.
GBP/USD Supported by Mixed UK PMI Data Amid Manufacturing Weakness and Services Strength
On the other hand, the gain in the GBP/USD pair was further bolstered by the mixed UK PMI data. The latest report showed a disappointing drop in the UK’s Manufacturing PMI for March, falling to 44.6 from February's 46.9, which was below the expected 47.3. This weaker manufacturing data raised concerns about the overall health of the UK economy.
However, the negative impact from the manufacturing sector was offset by stronger-than-expected data from the UK Services PMI, which surged to 53.2 in March, well above February's 51 and the forecast of 51.2.
The contrast between the weak manufacturing data and strong services sector performance helped to support the Pound, keeping the GBP/USD pair steady around 1.2950.
US Dollar Under Pressure Amid Trade Policy Concerns and Economic Data Release
On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar is facing growing pressure due to concerns over President Trump's trade policies. Trump has announced April 2 as "Liberation Day," a date when he plans to implement reciprocal tariffs on trade partners in industries like automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors.
While these tariffs are aimed at addressing trade imbalances, analysts are worried they could push the US economy into a recession, which would weaken the US Dollar.
Additionally, the market is closely awaiting the release of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI later today. This data is expected to provide further insight into the health of the US economy.
A disappointing reading could add more pressure on the Greenback, potentially benefiting the GBP as investors seek safer or more stable assets.
BoE Maintains Cautious Outlook as Investors Await Key UK Economic Data
Apart from this, the Bank of England (BoE) has kept its cautious outlook by leaving interest rates unchanged at 4.5%.
Governor Andrew Bailey highlighted the ongoing uncertainty in the economy and mentioned that the central bank is considering a gradual rate-cut path in the coming years.
Analysts predict the BoE will lower rates by 100 basis points, bringing the terminal rate to 3.5% by early 2026.
Despite this dovish stance, the BoE's decision hasn't had a major negative impact on the Pound. Investors are focusing more on upcoming UK economic data, particularly February’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report, which is set to be released on Wednesday.
This data could provide clearer insights into the UK economy and influence future decisions from the BoE.
GBP/USD – Technical Analysis
GBP/USD is holding steady at $1.29491, showing minimal movement in early Tuesday trading. The pair remains within a short-term consolidation range, supported by improving risk sentiment and broad U.S. dollar consolidation.
The current structure reflects a tug-of-war between technical resistance and supportive macro undercurrents.
On the 4-hour chart, price action is hovering just below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.29660.
A decisive break above this zone could open the door to further gains, with immediate resistance levels aligned at $1.29703, followed by $1.30133 and $1.30457. These levels represent critical hurdles that GBP/USD must clear to resume a more sustained uptrend.
The pivot point sits at $1.29170. As long as the pair holds above this threshold, the near-term bullish bias remains valid.
A break below $1.29170 could expose the pair to downside support at $1.28879, with further cushions at $1.28616 and $1.28212.
Traders will be watching closely for upcoming U.K. inflation data, which could influence short-term rate expectations and impact sterling’s momentum.
In the meantime, a potential long setup emerges with entry above $1.29315, targeting a move toward $1.29802, while a protective stop below $1.29003 helps manage downside risk.
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S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis – March 21, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
The S&P 500 (SPX) extended its losses and dropped below 5,662, hitting an intra-day low of 5,632. The broad market index remains under pressure as investors react to heightened geopolitical tensions, US tariff threats, and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Geopolitical Tensions Weigh on Market Sentiment and S&P 500
Market sentiment was further dampened by escalating geopolitical tensions. Russia and Ukraine intensified aerial attacks, with Ukraine targeting Russia’s Engels airbase, resulting in fire and explosions.
Moreover, Russia launched 171 drones over Ukrainian territory, escalating the conflict. Meanwhile, Russian and US officials are set to hold talks in Saudi Arabia on Monday regarding the ongoing war.
On the other side, the tensions in the Middle East have also worsened, as Israel resumed heavy strikes across Gaza, ending a ceasefire with Hamas that had been in place since late January.
In response, Hamas launched three rockets at Israel on Thursday, further unsettling global markets. Therefore, the increasing geopolitical instability drove investors toward safe-haven assets like gold and the US dollar, while risk-sensitive equities, including the S&P 500, faced renewed selling pressure.
Trade War Fears and Tariff Uncertainty Weigh on Equities
Apart from this, investors remain concerned over US President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariff threats, set to take effect on April 2.
The uncertainty surrounding these tariffs, on top of a 25% duty on steel and aluminum implemented in February, has raised fears of a potential trade war.
Therefore, the lack of clarity on the specifics of these tariffs is keeping market participants cautious, leading to continued selling pressure on equities.
Fed Rate Cut Expectations and Stronger Dollar Weigh on S&P 500
On the US Fed front, the Federal Reserve has indicated plans for two 25-basis-point rate cuts by the end of the year, citing concerns over economic growth amid the uncertainty of Trump's trade policies.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that tariffs could dampen economic activity, leading to increased speculation that the central bank will lower interest rates in June, July, and October.
Meanwhile, the US dollar continues to strengthen for the third consecutive day, creating headwinds for equities and further pressuring the S&P 500.
Looking ahead, investors will closely watch updates on US tariff policies, geopolitical developments, and upcoming Federal Reserve meetings to gauge the future direction of the market.
S&P 500 – Technical Analysis
The S&P 500 is trading at 5662.88, holding steady with a slight uptick of 0.01% as traders navigate a market influenced by economic data and Federal Reserve signals.
The 50-day EMA at 5662.39 is currently aligning with price action, acting as a key dynamic level that could dictate near-term direction.
The pivot point at 5686.10 serves as a critical marker for today’s session. If the index fails to reclaim this level, a bearish move could accelerate toward immediate support at 5599.00, followed by 5506.10 and 5407.38.
The lack of upside momentum suggests potential weakness, with profit-taking emerging after recent highs.
On the upside, resistance is noted at 5780.12, with further barriers at 5859.14 and 5938.11. A breakout above these levels would suggest renewed bullish sentiment, possibly leading to fresh all-time highs.
A sell-off below 5686 could confirm a bearish breakout, increasing the likelihood of a correction toward 5561.
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- GOLD Price Analysis – March 21, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – March 21, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) fell slightly during the European session on Friday after hitting a record high the day before.
However, the decline was mainly due to the bullish US dollar, which gaining strength for the third straight session, staying near its weekly high.
Moreover, some traders took profits before the weekend, leading to a pullback after gold’s strong rally.
However, the downside seems limited, as investors remain cautious about the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) future monetary policy direction. Market participants widely anticipate that the Fed will begin cutting interest rates this year, capping further gains for the dollar and offering support to gold price.
Geopolitical Tensions Boost Gold’s Safe-Haven Demand
On the geopolitical front, the ongoing conflicts continue to strengthen gold’s safe-haven appeal as tensions remain high in the Middle East.
Meanwhile, the Russia-Ukraine war is also not showing any sign of slowing down. Notably, Ukraine recently launched a drone attack on Russia’s Engels airbase, prompting Moscow to respond with 171 drone strikes.
These developments have increased investor concerns about economic instability. Meanwhile, Russian and US officials are scheduled to meet in Saudi Arabia to discuss the Ukraine conflict, adding more uncertainty to the global situation.
On the other side, tensions in the Middle East escalated as Israel resumed airstrikes on Gaza, breaking a previously held ceasefire with Hamas.
The retaliatory rocket attacks from Hamas, though not causing casualties, have further fueled market uncertainty. These ongoing risks continue to bolster gold’s position as a safe-haven asset.
Fed Rate Cut Expectations and Geopolitical Risks Support Gold
Despite the bullish bias in US dollar, the ongoing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year continue to weigh on the currency.
The Fed recently indicated its intention to implement two 25 basis-point rate cuts before the end of 2024, citing concerns over slowing economic growth.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell also acknowledged that trade tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump could further dampen economic expansion, reinforcing the case for monetary policy easing.
Market expectations currently price in potential rate cuts in June, July, and October, creating hurdles for the US dollar. This, in turn, acts as a supportive factor for gold, which thrives in a lower interest rate environment.
Looking ahead, traders will closely watch any updates on US trade policies, central bank decisions, and geopolitical risks for further direction. For now, gold remains well-positioned, with limited downside amid prevailing uncertainties in global markets.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $3,033.97, showing marginal gains of 0.03% as it consolidates above the key 50-day EMA at $3,027.11.
The market is balancing between a bullish continuation and a potential retracement, with $3,051.45 acting as the pivot point for today’s session.
Despite a recent pullback, gold remains in an upward trend, finding strong support near $3,006.31.
If prices hold above this level, the next bullish targets are $3,057.40, followed by $3,068.71 and $3,078.95, where profit-taking could emerge.
A sustained move above $3,051.45 would confirm bullish momentum, paving the way for further gains.
Conversely, failure to hold above $3,027 may lead to a test of the $3,006.31 support level, with extended downside risk toward $2,993.42 and $2,979.20.
The 50-day EMA remains a key short-term indicator, keeping the bias slightly bullish unless breached.
However, traders should watch for profit-taking near $3,050, especially if the dollar strengthens. A break below $3,006 would shift sentiment bearish, signaling deeper correction levels.
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- EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 21, 2025
EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 21, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair failed to stop its downward trend and remained well offered around 1.0820. The pair faced pressure due to a stronger US Dollar (USD) and rising concerns over trade tensions.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) climbed to around 104.15 as the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintained its restrictive stance on interest rates.
This dampened expectations of any near-term rate cuts, further supporting the USD and weighing on the euro. As a result, EUR/USD struggled to find demand and continued its bearish trajectory.
Fed’s Tight Policy and Economic Uncertainty Weigh on EUR/USD
On the US front, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged for the second time in a row, maintaining them within the 4.25%-4.50% range.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that there was no rush to cut rates, pointing to significant uncertainty in the US economic outlook.
His comments reinforced expectations that monetary policy would remain tight for an extended period, boosting the US Dollar and putting pressure on the EUR/USD pair.
Furthermore, Powell cautioned that new policies under US President Donald Trump could slow economic growth and push inflation higher.
This has led market participants to anticipate potential policy changes that could impact global trade and inflation trends, adding to concerns in the financial markets.
The Fed’s tight policy stance and Powell’s warnings strengthened the US Dollar, making the euro less attractive. As a result, EUR/USD faced downward pressure, struggling to gain momentum amid economic uncertainty.
Euro Weakens Amid Concerns Over US Tariffs and Trade War Risks
On the other hand, the shared currency dropped further as investors reacted to concerns over Trump’s proposed reciprocal tariffs, which are set for discussion on April 2.
Market speculation suggests these tariffs could disrupt global supply chains, leading to higher inflation and slower economic growth.
ECB President Christine Lagarde warned that a trade war with the US could hurt economic growth, even if its impact on inflation is temporary.
Investors are worried about Germany, a major exporter to the US, as Trump has threatened a 25% tariff on foreign cars.
Currently, the US charges only 2.5% on German cars, while the Eurozone imposes a 10% tax on US cars. These concerns have weakened the euro, keeping it under pressure against the stronger US Dollar.
Economic Developments and Market Outlook
On the economic front, investors are closely watching the upcoming US S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for March, due on Monday, In Europe, the German government has approved a 500-billion-euro infrastructure fund to boost economic resilience, with support from both the Conservatives and the Social Democratic Party (SPD). This move is aimed at protecting the economy amid concerns over a potential trade war.
For the EUR/USD pair, the focus remains on the US economic data and how it may impact the US Dollar, while Europe's efforts to stabilize its economy could help support the euro.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.08355, showing minimal movement as traders assess market conditions. The pair has been struggling to gain momentum, hovering below the 50-day EMA at $1.08972, which continues to act as dynamic resistance.
The pivot point at $1.08553 serves as an inflection level for today’s session, indicating that bearish momentum may persist if the pair remains below this threshold.
Immediate resistance is located at $1.08838, with further hurdles at $1.09177 and $1.09516. A break above these levels could trigger fresh buying interest, but current sentiment remains cautious due to renewed strength in the U.S. dollar, supported by a hawkish Federal Reserve stance.
On the downside, immediate support rests at $1.08152, followed by $1.07895 and $1.07656. A sustained move below $1.08553 would confirm a bearish bias, pushing the pair toward these lower levels.
If sellers maintain control, EUR/USD could face extended downside pressure, with the 50-day EMA reinforcing resistance around $1.08972.
Traders should monitor $1.08544 as a key level, with selling opportunities below this price targeting $1.08152, while upside breakouts remain capped near $1.08838.
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GOLD Price Analysis – March 20, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices maintained its bullish trend and surged to new heights on Thursday, reaching a fresh record high around 3,057. However, the bullish rally was driven by the Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts later this year, which has fueled strong demand for the precious metal.
Moreover, the metal found strong support amid heightened concerns over ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump's aggressive trade policies and escalating conflict in the Middle East.
Fed's Rate-Cut Expectations Support Gold's Momentum
As we mentioned, the rally was mainly supported by the market's expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon cut interest rates. Notably, the U.S. central bank kept its key interest rate unchanged in its latest meeting, but the market is pricing in the possibility of two 25-basis-point cuts by the end of the year.
This dovish outlook has put pressure on the U.S. dollar, which has been weighed down by expectations of lower yields, making gold more attractive as an alternative investment.
Analysts are anticipating a 66% chance of a rate cut in July, which has led to an uptick in gold's appeal. As lower interest rates make the U.S. dollar less attractive, investors have turned to gold, boosting its price further.
However, the strength of the U.S. dollar, which rose 0.3% in recent sessions, slightly capped gold's gains, making the precious metal more expensive for foreign buyers. Despite this, geopolitical factors and central bank demand for gold remain supportive, keeping the upward momentum intact.
Geopolitical Tensions Drive Safe-Haven Demand
On the other side, the geopolitical risk has also played a crucial role in gold’s rally. The ongoing trade tensions, particularly between the U.S. and China, have heightened concerns about global economic stability.
Trump's tariffs, seen as inflationary, have raised the risk of a trade war, which has been a driving force behind gold’s ascent this year.
In addition, tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Gaza, have kept safe-haven demand for gold elevated.
The Israeli military's limited ground incursion into Gaza, coupled with warnings of a wider war, has added to the uncertainty. These geopolitical concerns, along with the potential for further escalation, are likely to continue supporting gold's rally.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading slightly lower at $3,043, down 0.04%, as it consolidates near a key pivot level of $3,044.55. Despite the modest decline, the broader trend remains bullish, supported by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and persistent global economic uncertainties.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $3,016 provides strong near-term support, keeping gold within an upward channel.
If prices sustain above the pivot point, the next resistance levels to watch are $3,057.40, followed by $3,067.87 and $3,078.95. A break above these levels could signal renewed bullish momentum, with gold eyeing further highs.
On the downside, immediate support lies at $3,033.30, with a break below this level exposing the next key supports at $3,023.07 and $3,010.48. A move below the 200-day EMA at $2,980 would indicate a shift in sentiment, potentially triggering profit-taking.
For now, gold remains bullish above $3,044, with traders eyeing a breakout toward $3,068. A stop-loss below $3,033 is recommended to mitigate downside risks.
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USD/JPY Price Analysis – March 20, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the USD/JPY currency pair continued its downward trend, hovering around the 148.50 level.
The primary factor behind this decline is the growing expectation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue raising interest rates throughout the year, which is strengthening the Japanese yen.
In addition, global uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump's trade policies and geopolitical risks is adding to the appeal of the Japanese Yen as a safe-haven asset. These factors have contributed to the slide in the USD/JPY pair.
Moreover, the modest rebound in the US Dollar has prevented a sharper decline in the USD/JPY pair, as the USD continues to be supported by investor sentiment.
However, expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates multiple times this year are limiting the USD's strength, capping further losses in the USD/JPY pair.
Bank of Japan and US Federal Reserve Decisions Impact the USD/JPY
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) recently finished its two-day policy review and decided to keep interest rates unchanged. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda mentioned that Japan's economy and inflation are uncertain.
He emphasized that reaching the 2% inflation target is important for the BoJ's long-term credibility and that the bank will take action if needed.
This has led to market speculation that the BoJ may raise rates in the future, which could strengthen the Japanese yen (JPY).
Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve kept interest rates the same in its latest meeting and suggested there could be two 25-basis-point rate cuts by the end of the year.
The Fed also lowered its growth forecast due to concerns about President Trump's trade policies affecting the US economy.
However, the Fed raised its inflation forecast, which has helped support the US dollar. Despite being cautious, the market still expects a high chance (over 65%) that the Fed will start cutting rates later this year.
Geopolitical Risks and Safe-Haven Demand Boost JPY
Further exacerbating the downward pressure on USD/JPY is the escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Tensions between Israel and Gaza, coupled with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s rejection of a proposed ceasefire with Ukraine, are increasing uncertainty in the global landscape.
As a result, the Japanese Yen's safe-haven status has been reinforced, adding to the downward momentum of the USD/JPY pair.
USD/JPY – Technical Analysis
USD/JPY is trading near 148.62, up 0.02%, as buyers attempt to regain momentum following a brief consolidation. The pair is holding above the pivot level of 148.18, reinforcing the underlying bullish trend.
The 50-day EMA at 149.08 remains a key resistance zone, limiting further upside potential. If the pair breaks above 148.94, a rally toward 149.15 and 149.38 could follow.
However, sustained strength beyond these levels would require a broader shift in market sentiment, particularly from Federal Reserve policy expectations and risk appetite trends.
On the downside, 147.83 serves as immediate support, with a break below exposing 147.41 and 147.02. A break above 148.94 would confirm further upside, while a failure to hold 148.18 could introduce selling pressure.
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