USD/JPY Price Analysis – March 20, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the USD/JPY currency pair continued its downward trend, hovering around the 148.50 level.
The primary factor behind this decline is the growing expectation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue raising interest rates throughout the year, which is strengthening the Japanese yen.
In addition, global uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump's trade policies and geopolitical risks is adding to the appeal of the Japanese Yen as a safe-haven asset. These factors have contributed to the slide in the USD/JPY pair.
Moreover, the modest rebound in the US Dollar has prevented a sharper decline in the USD/JPY pair, as the USD continues to be supported by investor sentiment.
However, expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates multiple times this year are limiting the USD's strength, capping further losses in the USD/JPY pair.
Bank of Japan and US Federal Reserve Decisions Impact the USD/JPY
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) recently finished its two-day policy review and decided to keep interest rates unchanged. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda mentioned that Japan's economy and inflation are uncertain.
He emphasized that reaching the 2% inflation target is important for the BoJ's long-term credibility and that the bank will take action if needed.
This has led to market speculation that the BoJ may raise rates in the future, which could strengthen the Japanese yen (JPY).
Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve kept interest rates the same in its latest meeting and suggested there could be two 25-basis-point rate cuts by the end of the year.
The Fed also lowered its growth forecast due to concerns about President Trump's trade policies affecting the US economy.
However, the Fed raised its inflation forecast, which has helped support the US dollar. Despite being cautious, the market still expects a high chance (over 65%) that the Fed will start cutting rates later this year.
Geopolitical Risks and Safe-Haven Demand Boost JPY
Further exacerbating the downward pressure on USD/JPY is the escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Tensions between Israel and Gaza, coupled with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s rejection of a proposed ceasefire with Ukraine, are increasing uncertainty in the global landscape.
As a result, the Japanese Yen's safe-haven status has been reinforced, adding to the downward momentum of the USD/JPY pair.
USD/JPY – Technical Analysis
USD/JPY is trading near 148.62, up 0.02%, as buyers attempt to regain momentum following a brief consolidation. The pair is holding above the pivot level of 148.18, reinforcing the underlying bullish trend.
The 50-day EMA at 149.08 remains a key resistance zone, limiting further upside potential. If the pair breaks above 148.94, a rally toward 149.15 and 149.38 could follow.
However, sustained strength beyond these levels would require a broader shift in market sentiment, particularly from Federal Reserve policy expectations and risk appetite trends.
On the downside, 147.83 serves as immediate support, with a break below exposing 147.41 and 147.02. A break above 148.94 would confirm further upside, while a failure to hold 148.18 could introduce selling pressure.
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GBP/USD Price Analysis – March 19, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair is under pressure, trading around 1.2960. Traders are taking a cautious approach as they await important economic events.
Market participants are looking ahead to the UK labor market data for the three months ending in January and the Bank of England's (BoE) monetary policy decision on Thursday.
UK Economic Uncertainty and Labor Market Data Weigh on GBP
On the GBP front, the upcoming release of the UK’s labor market data is crucial, particularly the Average Earnings figures. Analysts expect a steady growth rate of 5.9% for Average Earnings, both including and excluding bonuses.
However, reports from Brightmine show a slowdown in pay growth, mainly due to businesses being cautious ahead of the payroll tax increase in April. Many companies are planning hiring freezes or restructuring, with some considering pay freezes, which could weigh on earnings growth.
At the same time, the Bank of England's (BoE) policy decision is a key focus for the markets. The BoE is expected to keep interest rates steady at 4.5%, with a split vote of 7-2 in favor of maintaining the current rate.
However, two members, Catherine Mann and Swati Dhingra, are likely to support a rate cut. This divergence in the BoE's stance, combined with weak earnings growth, could put pressure on the GBP/USD, potentially weakening the pound further against the dollar.
Impact of US Federal Reserve's Policy Decision and Trade Tensions on GBP/USD Performance
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar remains strong ahead of the Federal Reserve’s upcoming monetary policy decision. While the Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged between 4.25% and 4.50%, there is a strong possibility of a rate cut by June, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
The Fed’s dot plot, which shows policymakers’ expectations for future rate changes, along with the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), will be closely watched by traders.
Moreover, ongoing trade tensions, especially the US’s tariff policies, could add inflationary pressures, with some estimates suggesting a 1% increase in inflation in the short term. This uncertainty may impact market sentiment and influence the performance of the GBP/USD pair.
GBP/USD – Technical Analysis
GBP/USD is trading around $1.29787, down slightly as the pair faces resistance near the $1.29908 pivot point.
Despite recent attempts to push higher, the pound remains under pressure, with immediate resistance at $1.30097 and further upside barriers at $1.30280 and $1.30457. If buyers fail to reclaim $1.29908, the pair could see renewed selling pressure.
On the downside, $1.29521 is the first level of support, followed by $1.29286 and $1.29106 if bearish momentum accelerates.
The 50-day EMA at $1.29616 is providing dynamic support, but a breakdown below this moving average could trigger a sharper decline.
A break below $1.29908 could confirm additional weakness, targeting $1.29521 and $1.29286 in the near term.
Conversely, if the pair manages to rise above $1.30097, it may attract fresh buying interest, but sustained gains remain uncertain amid global risk factors.
Traders should monitor $1.29521 closely, as a breach of this level could accelerate losses, pushing GBP/USD toward $1.29286.
For now, the pair remains vulnerable to downside risks, with price action likely dictated by upcoming economic data and central bank commentary.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 19, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair failed to stop its downward trend and remained under pressure around the 1.0873 level. However, the decline was driven by a strengthening US dollar, which gained momentum ahead of the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision.
Another factor weighing on the EUR/USD pair is the Euro's underperformance, despite Germany’s debt restructuring plan, which raises concerns about inflation and the European Central Bank's cautious approach to monetary expansion.
Impact of Fed's Interest Rate Decision and Market Expectations
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar gained traction as the CME FedWatch tool shows the Fed is likely to keep interest rates steady at 4.25%-4.50%. This would be the second consecutive meeting where the Fed chooses a "wait and see" approach, keeping borrowing rates unchanged.
Market expectations are high that the Fed will stay cautious, especially as they await more clarity on the US economic outlook under President Donald Trump. Investors are increasingly confident in this decision, anticipating no immediate changes to rates.
Euro Weakness Amidst Domestic and Geopolitical Developments
Despite Germany’s approval of a debt restructuring plan aimed at stimulating economic growth and increasing defense spending, the Euro underperformed, contributing to the decline in the EUR/USD pair. The plan is seen as pro-growth for the Eurozone, but it also raises concerns about inflationary pressures.
As the plan progresses, higher inflation could prompt the European Central Bank (ECB) to adopt a more cautious approach to its monetary policy, slowing down its current cycle of expansion.
The ECB has already reduced interest rates six times since June 2024, and the ongoing concerns about inflation have created uncertainty for the Eurozone's economic outlook. These factors combined are weighing heavily on the Euro, making it harder for the currency to gain support despite efforts to boost growth.
As a result, the EUR/USD pair remains under pressure, and market participants are closely monitoring the ECB’s next moves.
Moreover, the impact of US tariff policies remains a significant concern, as President Trump's agenda could worsen price pressures in the Eurozone. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that each country will soon receive their specific "tariff" numbers, with April 2 set as an important date for these updates.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is trading around $1.09246, slightly lower as the pair struggles to maintain upward momentum. The currency pair remains under pressure after failing to hold above its $1.09505 pivot point.
Immediate resistance stands at $1.09710, while a move beyond $1.09922 could pave the way for a test of $1.10130. However, with the euro showing signs of exhaustion, upside potential appears limited.
On the downside, $1.09015 serves as immediate support, followed by $1.08735 and $1.08472 if selling pressure intensifies. The 50-day EMA at $1.08945 is offering a dynamic support zone, but a break below this level could accelerate bearish momentum.
The pair is currently facing headwinds from shifting interest rate expectations in both the U.S. and Eurozone. The Federal Reserve’s cautious approach toward rate cuts, combined with stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data, has kept the dollar resilient.
Meanwhile, European Central Bank policymakers have signaled a potential easing cycle later in the year, keeping the euro subdued.
Traders should watch for a break below $1.09505, which could confirm further downside toward $1.09015 and $1.08735.
Conversely, a push above $1.09710 may trigger a short-term rally, but with macroeconomic uncertainty weighing on sentiment, sustained gains could be limited.
For now, EUR/USD remains vulnerable to further downside pressure. If the pair breaches $1.09015, expect sellers to gain control, potentially driving prices toward $1.08735 in the near term.
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- GOLD Price Analysis – March 19, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – March 19, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) reached a new all-time high of $3,045 on Wednesday. However, the strong bullish bias was fueled by rising geopolitical tensions and market uncertainty ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision.
Moreover, investors turned to gold as a safe-haven asset after Turkish authorities arrested Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, a key rival of President Tayyip Erdogan, on corruption and terrorism-related charges. This political tensions added to global concerns, increasing demand for gold as a secure investment.
Geopolitical Tensions Rise as US-Russia Talks Fail to Secure Ceasefire
Apart from this, the gains were further bolstered by a key phone call between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. The two leaders agreed to a temporary 30-day pause in attacks on energy infrastructure, but they did not reach any major ceasefire agreement in the Ukraine conflict.
In the meantime, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy dismissed the talks, stating that any negotiations without Ukraine’s involvement would not be effective. This ongoing geopolitical uncertainty has increased investor demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
Fed Policy Decision and Economic Concerns Keep Gold in Focus
On the US front, the Fed is set to announce its interest rate decision and release updated economic projections during the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
Traders are closely monitoring this event for clues about future policy moves. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 99% chance that the Fed will keep interest rates steady at 4.25-4.50%, while the probability of a rate cut in June stands at 64.8%.
Although expectations of higher-for-longer interest rates could limit gold’s upside, worries about a possible US economic slowdown and Trump’s proposed tariff policies are keeping demand for the precious metal strong.
Gold’s Long-Term Rally Faces Uncertainty Amid Geopolitical and Economic Shifts
Despite gold’s record-breaking surge, some analysts warn that its long-term bullish momentum may not be guaranteed. However, the temporary pause in attacks between Russia and Ukraine has slightly reduced risk sentiment, which could limit further gains.
At the same time, data from Bank of America shows large outflows from US equities, suggesting some investors are shifting their focus. Looking ahead, gold’s movement will rely on the Fed’s decisions and the ongoing geopolitical situation.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is maintaining its upward trajectory, trading around $3,038.86, as investors remain cautious ahead of key economic events.
The metal is consolidating above the pivot point at $3,036.51, suggesting strong buyer interest at this level. Immediate resistance stands at $3,051.92, followed by $3,062.42, where a breakout could trigger further gains toward the $3,074.10 mark.
On the downside, support at $3,027.81 is keeping short-term pullbacks in check. A breach of this level could expose gold to further downside pressure toward $3,015.97 and $3,006.15. However, the 50-day EMA at $2,996.75 reinforces the broader bullish trend, offering dynamic support.
Gold’s recent price action suggests that traders are awaiting a catalyst, possibly from upcoming Federal Reserve statements or shifting macroeconomic conditions.
If gold holds above $3,036, buyers may push prices toward the $3,052 mark in the short term, making a case for a bullish breakout. However, a drop below $3,026 could invite selling pressure, leading to a potential retest of key support levels.
For now, traders should watch for a break above $3,051.92 to confirm continued upside momentum. Meanwhile, a sustained move below $3,036.51 could signal weakness, increasing the likelihood of a short-term pullback.
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USD/CAD Price Analysis – March 18, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the USD/CAD currency pair maintained its upward trend and stayed above the 1.4300 level. The rise was mainly due to the US Dollar (USD) recovering after recent losses.
Traders remained cautious as they waited for key economic data and central bank decisions, which could impact the pair’s movement.
USD Finds Support Ahead of Fed Meeting but Faces Rate Cut Pressure
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has recovered slightly from its lowest level since October 2024, driven by repositioning ahead of this week’s crucial Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting. Despite this rebound, USD gains remain limited as markets anticipate multiple rate cuts by the Fed this year, keeping broader pressure on the greenback and affecting USD/CAD movement.
Oil Prices and Trade Developments Support the Canadian Dollar
Another factor that impacts the USD/CAD pair is the rise in crude oil prices, which are near a two-week high due to tensions in the Middle East.
This supports the Canadian Dollar (CAD) since Canada is a major oil exporter. Also, progress in US-Canada trade talks has strengthened CAD, limiting further gains in USD/CAD.
Canada’s Inflation Data and BoC Policy Impact on USD/CAD
On the other side, Canada’s February inflation data, set to be released on Tuesday, could impact the USD/CAD pair. Inflation is expected to rise from 1.9% to 2.1%, which may support the Canadian Dollar (CAD).
The Bank of Canada (BoC) will also publish its core CPI report, which tracks underlying inflation trends. In January, core CPI rose by 0.4% MoM and 2.1% YoY.
The BoC recently cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.75%, its seventh consecutive cut due to slowing economic growth.
However, new US tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum could raise inflation risks, possibly influencing BoC’s future rate decisions and affecting USD/CAD movements.
USD/CAD – Technical Analysis
The USD/CAD pair is trading at $1.42958, showing slight weakness as it struggles to maintain bullish momentum. The price is currently below the pivot point at $1.43084, suggesting that sellers hold control in the near term.
The 50-day EMA at $1.43514 reinforces bearish sentiment, indicating further downside potential if key support levels break.
On the upside, immediate resistance stands at $1.43388, followed by $1.43793 and $1.44214. A break above these levels could indicate renewed buying interest, but momentum remains weak. For bulls to regain control, USD/CAD must decisively close above the 50-day EMA at $1.43514.
On the downside, support at $1.42764 is critical for short-term price action. A break below this level could drive the pair toward $1.42409, with further declines extending to $1.42086. A sustained move below $1.42764 would confirm bearish momentum, potentially leading to deeper losses.
Technically, a break below $1.43080 is likely to accelerate selling pressure, making $1.42573 a key short-term target.
However, if USD/CAD rebounds and moves above $1.43388, sentiment could shift toward a potential bullish correction. Traders should watch for a break below $1.43080 to confirm further downside momentum.
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- GOLD Price Analysis – March 18, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – March 18, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) prolonged its bullish rally and hit an all-time high of $3,028. The reason behind this record surge is the ongoing geopolitical tensions, fears of a slowdown in the US economy, and strong expectations of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) this year. Investors are increasingly moving towards gold as a safe-haven asset amid rising market uncertainty.
Despite a slight recovery in the US Dollar (USD), gold remains well-supported because lower interest rates typically make non-yielding assets like gold more attractive.
In the meantime, the ongoing concerns over global economic instability continue to drive demand for the metal.
Geopolitical Uncertainty Fuels Safe-Haven Demand
On the geopolitical front, the ongoing Middle East conflict continues to push gold prices higher. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have intensified military strikes on Hamas targets in Gaza after ceasefire talks failed, raising fears of more violence.
At the same time, tensions in the Red Sea have escalated, with the US launching airstrikes against Houthi forces in response to their attack on the USS Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier.
Adding to the uncertainty, former US President Donald Trump has warned Iran of serious consequences, increasing global instability. These rising geopolitical risks have strengthened gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset, as investors look for protection against market turmoil.
US Economic Slowdown and Weak Data Boost Gold Prices
On the US front, the increasing concerns about a slowing US economy have further boosted gold prices. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently admitted the risk of a possible recession in 2024, making investors more cautious.
Meanwhile, the latest US Retail Sales report showed only a 0.2% increase in February, much lower than the expected 0.7% gain.
This weaker-than-expected data suggests that consumer confidence is declining, raising fears of economic slowdown.
As a result, speculation has grown that the Federal Reserve may have to cut interest rates to support economic growth.
Market participants are increasingly betting on multiple Fed rate cuts this year. Fed funds futures indicate a potential 25 basis-point rate cut in June, followed by additional cuts in July and October.
Gold Awaits Key FOMC Decision
Looking ahead, market focus shifts to the upcoming two-day FOMC meeting, with investors awaiting further clues on the Fed’s policy stance.
Meanwhile, economic data releases, including US Industrial Production, Housing Starts, and Canadian inflation figures, will also be closely monitored for potential market-moving insights.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $3,013.33, maintaining a steady uptrend after a slight 0.01% gain in early trading. The metal is consolidating above its pivot point at $3,007.95, reinforcing a bullish bias as long as this level holds. The 50-day EMA at $2,971.31 continues to act as a strong support zone, preventing deeper pullbacks.
On the upside, immediate resistance at $3,019.58 remains a key hurdle for buyers. A break above this level could trigger further gains, with the next resistance at $3,028.31, followed by $3,036.90. If bullish momentum strengthens, a push toward the $3,050 zone is possible in the near term.
Conversely, support at $2,996.48 serves as the first safety net for gold. A drop below this level may expose $2,986.84, with deeper support resting at $2,976.53. A failure to hold these levels could shift sentiment toward a bearish correction.
Gold's price action suggests that traders are awaiting stronger catalysts, such as economic data or central bank policy signals, to drive momentum. For now, the upward trend remains intact, and a break above $3,019 could fuel further buying interest. However, a drop below $2,996 may invite selling pressure.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis – March 18, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD pair remained sluggish around the 0.6371 level as the US dollar regained strength.
However, the greenback recovered from recent losses amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The US reaffirmed its stance on striking Yemen’s Houthis until they halt attacks on Red Sea shipping, further unsettling markets.
Moreover, US President Joe Biden warned Iran of consequences if it continued supporting the Houthi group in Yemen. The situation has fueled risk aversion, leading to a stronger US Dollar and pressuring the Aussie.
Despite this, the AUD/USD saw some support due to the China’s latest economic stimulus measures. Moreover, the US dollar could lose traction due to rising trade tensions and growing economic concerns in the US. The market remains cautious as investors assess the Federal Reserve’s policy stance and economic data.
AUD Faces Pressure from RBA Caution and US Trade Policies
On the AUD front, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) remains cautious about rate cuts. RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter said the bank is taking a careful approach to easing rates.
The February policy statement also showed this cautious stance, which is different from market expectations of big rate cuts. Hunter added that US policy decisions, especially on inflation, could affect Australia.
Further pressure on the Aussie came as President Biden reaffirmed plans to impose reciprocal and sectoral tariffs, specifically targeting steel and aluminum imports.
Biden ruled out exemptions, signaling tough trade measures that could impact Australian exports. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese confirmed that Australia would not impose retaliatory tariffs, aiming to avoid inflationary effects on domestic consumers.
Therefore, the cautious stance of the RBA and trade tensions with the US could weigh on the AUD, leading to potential weakness in the AUD/USD pair, as market sentiment remains uncertain.
Chinese Economic Support Provides Some Relief to the AUD
On the other side, the Australian Dollar found some support from China’s latest economic stimulus measures. China recently introduced a special action plan to boost consumption, aiming to enhance market sentiment.
The plan includes wage increases, measures to encourage household spending, and efforts to stabilize stock and real estate markets.
China’s retail sales data showed a 4.0% year-over-year increase in January-February, improving from December’s 3.7% rise.
Meanwhile, industrial production rose by 5.9% YoY, surpassing the 5.3% forecast but slightly lower than the previous reading of 6.2%. These indicators suggest steady growth in China, which could help cushion the AUD/USD pair from further downside.
Weak US Data and Consumer Confidence Pressure the US Dollar
On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar Index (DXY) hovered around 103.50, struggling due to weak US economic data and uncertainty surrounding Biden’s tariff threats. US Retail Sales figures for February increased by just 0.2%, falling short of the expected 0.7% gain.
January’s data was also revised lower to -1.2% from -0.9%, signaling weaker consumer spending and raising concerns about a potential economic slowdown.
Moreover, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 57.9 in March, marking its lowest level since November 2022.
The decline in consumer confidence further pressured the US Dollar. However, the Fed is expected to maintain its current policy stance, with markets awaiting the outcome of its two-day meeting.
Therefore, weak US data and declining consumer confidence weighed on the USD, limiting its strength. This could support the AUD/USD pair, but RBA caution and trade tensions may cap significant gains.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
The AUD/USD pair is trading at $0.63698, showing slight downward movement as it struggles to maintain bullish momentum.
The price remains below the pivot point at $0.63844, indicating that sellers still have control in the short term. With the 50-day EMA at $0.63137, the broader trend suggests a cautious outlook, with potential for further downside if key support levels fail to hold.
Immediate resistance stands at $0.64000, with additional hurdles at $0.64121 and $0.64260. A breakout above these levels could signal renewed buying interest, pushing the pair toward a short-term recovery. However, without a fundamental catalyst, upside movement appears limited.
On the downside, immediate support at $0.63573 remains critical. A break below this level could lead to a test of $0.63402, followed by $0.63266, reinforcing the bearish sentiment.
A break below $0.6384 could accelerate downside momentum, making $0.63540 a viable target for short sellers. Conversely, a move above $0.64000 may shift sentiment toward a temporary bullish correction.
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USD/CAD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- USD/CAD remains bearish below $1.43084, with downside targets at $1.42764 and $1.42409.
- Resistance at $1.43388 must be broken for bulls to regain control and push toward $1.43793.
- Oil price strength and Fed policy shifts will influence USD/CAD’s next major move.
The USD/CAD pair is trading at $1.42958, showing slight weakness as it struggles to maintain bullish momentum. The price is currently below the pivot point at $1.43084, suggesting that sellers hold control in the near term.
The 50-day EMA at $1.43514 reinforces bearish sentiment, indicating further downside potential if key support levels break.
On the upside, immediate resistance stands at $1.43388, followed by $1.43793 and $1.44214. A break above these levels could indicate renewed buying interest, but momentum remains weak. For bulls to regain control, USD/CAD must decisively close above the 50-day EMA at $1.43514.
On the downside, support at $1.42764 is critical for short-term price action. A break below this level could drive the pair toward $1.42409, with further declines extending to $1.42086. A sustained move below $1.42764 would confirm bearish momentum, potentially leading to deeper losses.
Technically, a break below $1.43080 is likely to accelerate selling pressure, making $1.42573 a key short-term target.
However, if USD/CAD rebounds and moves above $1.43388, sentiment could shift toward a potential bullish correction. Traders should watch for a break below $1.43080 to confirm further downside momentum.
USD/CAD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 1.43080
Take Profit – 1.42573
Stop Loss – 1.43374
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.7
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$507/ -$294
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$50/ -$29
EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 17, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
EUR/USD extended its upward trend and remained well bid around 1.0910 during European trading hours on Monday, as investors awaits for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) upcoming interest rate decision on Wednesday. The currency pair traded in a tight range as market participants sought clarity on the Fed’s monetary policy outlook.
Impact of Fed's Policy and Economic Uncertainty on EUR/USD Pair
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has been losing traction despite expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates steady at 5.25%-5.50%.
However, investors are more focused on the Fed’s "dot plot," which gives clues about future rate changes. In the last meeting, Fed officials predicted three rate cuts this year, so traders will be watching closely to see if that changes.
Another key focus will be Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments on economic growth, jobs, and inflation. If he hints at any shift in policy, it could impact the dollar and financial markets.
Meanwhile, uncertainty is rising due to concerns over potential tariff policies under former US President Donald Trump.
Adding to the worries, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen recently suggested that the government may need to adjust its spending to avoid financial risks. This has raised fears about possible economic disruptions in the coming months.
Therefore, the EUR/USD pair may strengthen if the Fed signals delayed rate cuts or economic concerns rise. However, uncertainty over US policies and spending risks could limit gains, keeping the pair volatile.
Euro Strengthens Amid German Fiscal Expansion and Geopolitical Developments
Across the ocean, the shared currency remained firm as German leaders agreed to establish a 500 billion Euro infrastructure fund and ease borrowing restrictions through changes in the ‘debt brake’ rule.
This move, expected to be approved in the lower house of Parliament on Tuesday, is seen as a significant step to boost economic growth.
However, the Reuters poll conducted from March 10-14 showed that economists raised their Eurozone growth forecasts for 2026 from 1.2% to 1.3%, reflecting optimism over Germany’s fiscal expansion.
Apart from this, positive developments in Russia-Ukraine peace talks have further supported the Euro. Donald Trump is set to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday to discuss a ceasefire, following Ukraine’s acceptance of a 30-day truce after negotiations in Saudi Arabia.
EUR/USD Faces Risks from US-EU Trade Tensions and Fed Policy Outlook
Despite EUR/USD’s recovery, the escalating trade tensions between the US and the European Union (EU) pose a risk to the Euro’s gains.
On Thursday, Trump threatened to impose 200% tariffs on European alcohol imports, retaliating against the EU’s proposed tariffs on US goods in response to a 25% levy on steel and aluminum.
ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos warned that a full-scale trade war would negatively impact global economic growth, stating, “Trade war is bad news for the world economy, everyone loses in that situation.”
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is trading at $1.08763, holding steady but slightly pressured below the $1.08844 pivot point. The pair is consolidating in a narrow range as traders await key economic cues, with immediate resistance at $1.09314 and support at $1.08297.
The 50-day EMA at $1.08839 is acting as a dynamic barrier, reinforcing a potential bearish outlook if price action fails to reclaim higher levels.
A break below $1.08844 could confirm downside pressure, with sellers eyeing the next support zones at $1.08297 and $1.07966.
A sharper decline could expose $1.07650, a level that aligns with previous demand zones. On the upside, if EUR/USD rebounds and breaks above $1.09314, bullish momentum could extend toward $1.09710 and $1.10065.
Traders should monitor $1.08844 closely. A sustained move below this level would reinforce selling momentum, while a recovery above $1.09314 could shift sentiment toward further gains.
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- GOLD Price Analysis – March 17, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – March 17, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) started the week on a positive note but remains under pressure below the key $3,000 level, oscillating in a tight range after touching an all-time high of $3,004.94 on Friday.
Despite the near-term bullish bias, the precious metal is struggling to gain momentum amid global trade war fears and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts.
However, the uncertainty surrounding escalating trade tensions and geopolitical risks continues to fuel safe-haven demand for gold, preventing any major downside moves.
Trade War Concerns and Fed Rate Cut Bets Support Gold
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar is losing its strength as traders expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates multiple times this year.
This is happening because the US labor market is showing signs of slowing down, and inflation is becoming softer, which is affecting economic growth. As a result, markets believe the Fed may cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June, July, and October.
The sentiment in the market is shifting from a "Trump put" to a "Fed put," meaning investors are now more focused on the Federal Reserve's actions rather than government policies. This shift comes as recession risks grow due to the US administration's aggressive trade policies.
Moreover, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index has dropped to its lowest level in two and a half years. This decline further supports the idea that the Fed might take a more accommodative approach by lowering interest rates.
Since lower interest rates make the US dollar weaker, this situation is making gold more attractive to investors. Gold, being a non-yielding asset, tends to perform better when interest rates fall, as holding cash or bonds becomes less profitable.
Geopolitical Tensions Drive Investors Toward Gold as Safe-Haven Asset
On the geopolitical front, rising tensions are making gold even more attractive to investors. The Houthi leader, Abdul Malik al-Houthi, has warned that his group may target U.S. ships in the Red Sea in response to recent U.S. airstrikes. In reaction, the U.S. defense secretary has confirmed that military action against the Houthis will continue.
At the same time, an Israeli drone strike in Gaza over the weekend led to multiple casualties, including journalists. These ongoing conflicts are creating uncertainty in global markets, pushing investors toward safer assets like gold.
Gold's Gains Limited as China's Stimulus Boosts Risk Sentiment
Despite bullish factors, gold’s upside remains capped by improving risk sentiment, supported by China’s latest economic stimulus measures. China’s State Council introduced a special action plan to boost domestic consumption and income growth.
Moreover, Shenzhen eased its housing provident fund policies to support the struggling property sector. These developments lifted investor confidence, limiting further gains in safe-haven assets like gold ahead of the key FOMC decision on Wednesday.
Gold Traders Await Key U.S. Data and Fed Decision for Market Direction
Moving ahead, traders will keep their eyes on Monday’s U.S. economic data, including Retail Sales and the Empire State Manufacturing Index, to get fresh insights into the economy. However, the main focus will be on Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting (FOMC decision), as it will play a key role in shaping the direction of the U.S. dollar and gold prices in the coming days.
Meanwhile, analysts at UBS have raised their gold price target to $3,200, showing confidence in gold’s long-term strength. However, if there is a short-term correction, gold may find support around $2,850.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is consolidating near $2,985.56, showing modest gains of 0.03%, as investors weigh market catalysts.
The metal remains within a tight trading range, with key resistance at $3,005.25 and immediate support at $2,966.81.
The 50-day EMA at $2,951.89 is reinforcing a bullish structure, suggesting buyers remain in control, but momentum is slowing ahead of critical economic events.
A breakout above $3,005.25 could push gold toward the next resistance levels at $3,019.99 and $3,032.43, potentially triggering another bullish leg higher.
Conversely, a failure to hold above the $2,982.42 pivot could lead to a decline toward $2,966.81, with further downside potential at $2,954.61 and $2,939.24 if selling pressure intensifies.
Technical indicators reflect a bullish bias, with gold holding above its 50-day EMA ($2,951.89), signaling underlying strength.
However, price action remains in consolidation mode, awaiting fresh triggers from upcoming Federal Reserve rate decisions and economic data.
The weaker U.S. dollar and persistent geopolitical risks continue to support gold, but short-term profit-taking could cause temporary pullbacks.
For now, traders are watching the $2,982.42 pivot level as the key inflection point. A sustained break higher would reinforce bullish momentum, while a move below could accelerate selling pressure.
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