AUD/USD Price Analysis – March 11, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Despite deepening deflationary concerns in China, the Australian Dollar (AUD) has regained traction against the US Dollar (USD), trading around the 0.6289 level.
However, the weaker US Dollar and market expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts have provided support to the AUD/USD pair, even as trade tensions and economic uncertainty persist.
China's Deepening Deflationary Pressures
On the data front, China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped by 0.7% year-over-year in February, worse than the expected 0.5% decline.
This is the first time China has experienced consumer deflation since January 2024, mainly due to weaker demand after the Spring Festival.
Monthly CPI inflation also fell to -0.2%, showing low price pressures in the Chinese economy. Since China is Australia’s biggest trading partner, its slowdown is affecting the Australian Dollar.
AUD/USD Finds Support Amid Weaker US Dollar and Rate Cut Speculation
Despite these headwinds, the AUD/USD pair found support as the US Dollar struggled. The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains subdued around 103.80, as concerns over tariff policy uncertainty and weaker US labor market data have reinforced expectations of multiple Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.
On the data front, the February’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed only 151,000 new jobs, missing the 160,000 forecast and adding to speculation that the Fed will ease monetary policy.
Traders now anticipate a total of 75 basis points (bps) in rate cuts, with a June cut fully priced in. The Federal Reserve’s blackout period ahead of its March 19 meeting has limited further guidance, keeping market focus on upcoming economic data, particularly the February Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.
Australia’s Economic Developments and RBA Outlook
At home, Australia’s economic data has been mixed. The Westpac Consumer Confidence index rose 4% in March to 95.9, reaching its highest level in three years.
The improved sentiment is attributed to the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) rate cut in February and easing cost-of-living pressures.
However, Australia’s 10-year government bond yield declined to 4.39% as escalating global trade tensions dampened investor appetite for risk.
The RBA’s policy outlook remains a focal point, especially after stronger-than-expected economic growth reduced expectations of additional rate cuts.
The latest RBA Meeting Minutes signaled a cautious stance, clarifying that February’s rate cut does not indicate a broader easing cycle.
Geopolitical and Trade Uncertainty Weigh on Sentiment
Apart from this, trade tensions between the US and China are still unresolved, adding to the uncertainty. China started new tariffs on some US farm products on Monday after the US raised tariffs on Chinese imports from 10% to 20%.
China also put a 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and other farm goods, making global trade more uncertain.
Meanwhile, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed that the 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports will take effect on Wednesday, despite calls from US businesses for postponement.
These protectionist measures have heightened concerns over a global economic slowdown, influencing market sentiment and adding to volatility in currency markets.
Looking ahead, traders will closely monitor the US CPI release for further clues on inflation trends and Federal Reserve policy direction.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
The AUD/USD pair is trading at $0.62633, slipping 0.05% as the market struggles to find bullish momentum. The pair remains under pressure, trading below the pivot point of $0.62829, signaling a bearish bias in the short term.
The 50-day EMA at $0.63087 serves as immediate resistance, reinforcing downward pressure on the Australian dollar. A break above this level could push the pair toward $0.63287, with further resistance at $0.63650 and $0.64051.
On the downside, immediate support stands at $0.62465. A decisive break below this level could expose the pair to $0.62201, with deeper losses potentially extending to $0.61875. The overall structure remains weak, with sellers controlling price action as risk sentiment continues to weigh on the currency.
For traders, the technical setup suggests a sell position below $0.62826, targeting $0.62468, with a stop loss at $0.63092.
Related News
- GOLD Price Analysis – March 11, 2025
USD/CAD Price Analysis – March 11, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the USD/CAD is struggling to stop its declines and remain under pressure around 1.4407.
The pair faces downside pressure as the US Dollar (USD) weakens amid growing concerns that uncertainty over tariff policies could push the US economy into recession.
Investors are now looking ahead to February’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) release on Wednesday, which could provide further insights into inflation trends and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) potential policy direction.
US Economic Uncertainty Weighs on the US Dollar
The global market sentiment turned cautious after former President Donald Trump said the economy is in a "transition period," hinting at a possible slowdown. Investors saw this as a warning of economic trouble.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is weak, staying around 103.80. Meanwhile, US job data for February was weaker than expected, increasing hopes that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates multiple times this year.
According to LSEG data, traders now anticipate a total of 75 basis points (bps) in rate cuts, with a June rate cut fully priced in. On the data front, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by only 151,000 in February, missing the forecast of 160,000.
Meanwhile, January’s job growth was revised downward to 125,000 from 143,000. This weak labor market data adds to recession fears and puts further pressure on the US Dollar.
Impact of Tariff Policies and Trade Tensions
On the other hand, the US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum will start on Wednesday as planned.
US steelmakers have urged Trump to maintain these tariffs, but businesses reliant on these materials may face increased costs, further impacting economic stability.
Meanwhile, Trump also commented on trade relations with Ukraine, mentioning that his administration is considering lifting an intelligence pause and reviewing tariff measures against Russia. These geopolitical uncertainties contribute to market caution, further weakening USD sentiment.
Bank of Canada’s Rate Decision and USD/CAD Outlook
On the Canadian front, the Bank of Canada (BoC) is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming March meeting on Wednesday.
Analysts at CIBC predict that the BoC will lower its benchmark rate to 2.75%, with further cuts likely if trade uncertainty persists.
Hence, the rate cut by the BoC could limit USD/CAD’s downside, but broader US economic concerns are likely to keep the pair under pressure.
Looking ahead, traders will closely watch the US CPI data release on Wednesday, as it could shape expectations for the Fed’s future monetary policy decisions.
If inflation remains subdued, it could reinforce expectations for multiple rate cuts, adding further pressure on the USD and influencing USD/CAD’s movement.
USD/CAD – Technical Analysis
The USD/CAD pair is trading at $1.44456, edging up 0.03% as buyers maintain control above the $1.44097 pivot point. The pair remains in an uptrend, bolstered by a weaker Canadian dollar and sustained strength in the U.S. dollar.
The 50-day EMA at $1.43654 is providing strong dynamic support, reinforcing bullish momentum. If USD/CAD continues higher, immediate resistance is seen at $1.44735, followed by $1.45426 and $1.45986, signaling further upside potential.
On the downside, support at $1.43537 remains critical—losing this level could push the pair toward $1.43003, with further declines targeting $1.42409. However, as long as USD/CAD holds above the $1.44097 pivot point, the short-term trend favors buyers.
From a trading perspective, a buy entry above $1.44097 is favored, targeting $1.44739, with a stop loss at $1.43773. Key drivers include Fed rate expectations, oil price fluctuations, and overall risk sentiment in global markets.
Related News
- GOLD Price Analysis – March 11, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – March 11, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the price of gold (XAU/USD) continued to rise, reaching an intra-day high of $2,903. This upward movement came after a period of uncertainty in the markets.
However, the uncertainty was mainly driven by concerns over the potential effects of former US President Donald Trump’s trade policies. As a result, many investors decided to move their money into safer assets like gold to protect their wealth.
US Dollar Weakness and Fed Rate Cut Speculation Support Gold Prices
Moreover, the ongoing weakness in the US dollar further supported gold prices. However, the greenback faced selling pressure due to growing speculation that a tariff-induced economic slowdown might push the Federal Reserve (Fed) to implement multiple rate cuts this year. Hence, the lower interest rates typically benefit non-yielding assets like gold, boosting its appeal.
Geopolitical Risks and Trade Tensions Drive Gold Prices Higher
On the geopolitical front, the former President Trump’s 25% tariffs on global steel and aluminum imports are scheduled to take effect on Wednesday, with even more tariffs expected to be imposed on April 2.
These protectionist measures raised concerns about a possible US recession, which boosted demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
Moreover, the signs that the US labor market is weakening raised expectations that the Federal Reserve might start cutting interest rates again in June.
This could keep US Treasury yields low and put pressure on the US dollar, which would likely increase demand for gold.
Apart from this, market attention shifted to rising geopolitical tensions, especially between Ukraine and Russia. However, the meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and former President Trump ended in diplomatic conflict, leading to the US suspending all military aid to Ukraine.
At the same time, Ukraine carried out a large-scale drone attack on Moscow, with Russian air defenses shooting down 11 drones that were targeting key locations near the Kremlin.
These escalating tensions and the growing uncertainty in the region added more pressure on gold prices, pushing them higher as investors sought safety.
China's Economic Weakness and US Data Watch Fuel Gold Price Support
Moreover, China’s latest economic data added to market jitters. The Chinese Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined by 0.7% year-over-year in February, exceeding expectations and marking the first consumer deflation since January 2024.
The decline was partly due to weak demand after the Spring Festival, which raised worries about China’s economic outlook and boosted demand for safe-haven assets.
Therefore, the decline in China’s CPI raised concerns about the economy, increasing demand for safe-haven assets like gold. This led to higher gold prices as investors sought protection from economic uncertainties.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,895.25, hovering just below the $2,900 pivot point, signaling indecision in the market. Despite a minor decline, gold remains within a narrow range as traders await key catalysts.
The 50-day EMA at $2,909.07 acts as immediate resistance, aligning closely with short-term price action. A sustained break above this level could push gold toward $2,915.39, with further upside targets at $2,930.55 and $2,954.43.
On the downside, immediate support lies at $2,880.20, and a breach of this level could accelerate selling pressure, exposing gold to $2,858.99 and potentially $2,838.41. The broader trend remains bearish below $2,900, with a firm rejection of resistance reinforcing downside risk.
For traders, the technical setup favors selling below $2,899, targeting $2,880, with a stop loss at $2,913. Short-term sentiment hinges on macroeconomic developments, particularly inflation data and Federal Reserve rate expectations, which could dictate the next move.
Related News
- AUD/USD Price Analysis – March 11, 2025
GBP/USD Price Analysis – March 10, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair maintained its bullish trend and remained well bid above the 1.2900 level.
However, the bullish rally was supported by a weaker US Dollar, which lost traction mainly due to growing concerns over the US economic outlook.
On the other hand, the GBP/USD pair's gains could be limited due to the Bank of England's cautious stance and potential rate cuts, as traders focus on upcoming UK GDP and US CPI data.
US Dollar Struggles Amid Economic Concerns and Market Expectations for Fed Action
On the US front, the US dollar has struggled to gain strength as concerns about the economy grow. US President Donald Trump’s comments last Friday added to these worries. He said his "America First" policies might cause short-term economic problems.
Trump mentioned that the US is going through a "period of transition" and didn't rule out the possibility of a recession. This follows recent tariffs of 25% on Canada and Mexico and a 10% increase in taxes on Chinese imports.
Meanwhile, market analysts have changed their view on Trump’s policies, now seeing them as potentially harmful to economic growth instead of boosting it.
Goldman Sachs lowered its Q4 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1.7% from 2.2% and increased the chance of a recession next year to 20%.
These concerns have led to speculation that the Federal Reserve might need to start easing its policies again, possibly as soon as June.
Moving on, investors are waiting for upcoming economic data, like the US JOLTS Job Openings report, which could affect the Fed’s decisions.
However, US Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently said the central bank will wait for more clarity on Trump’s economic policies before making any changes to interest rates.
BoE's Cautious Approach and Market Focus on Upcoming Economic Data
On the other hand, the Bank of England (BoE) has taken a more cautious approach. Although there is some pressure on the Pound, BoE member Catherine Mann questioned the need for gradual interest rate cuts due to global economic uncertainty.
Despite this, traders are still expecting two rate cuts this year. These mixed signals from both the Fed and the BoE have kept investors focused on upcoming economic data, especially the UK GDP report for January and the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February, both of which could affect future monetary policy decisions.
GBP/USD – Technical Analysis
The GBP/USD pair remains in a steady uptrend but is showing signs of consolidation after failing to break above $1.29446, the pivot point level.
The pair is currently trading around $1.29131, hovering near key technical levels as traders assess broader market conditions.
On the upside, immediate resistance stands at $1.30286, with a break above this level potentially driving the pair toward $1.30893 and $1.31531, where sellers may emerge.
However, the pair is struggling to sustain upward momentum, and without a decisive breakout, further upside may remain limited in the short term.
Conversely, immediate support is found at $1.28691, aligning with recent pullback levels. A break below this could open the door for a decline toward $1.28031 and potentially $1.27444, where buyers may attempt to re-enter the market.
The 50-day EMA at $1.27504 serves as a critical dynamic support level, reinforcing the overall uptrend.
Fundamentally, traders remain cautious ahead of key U.S. inflation data, which could shift expectations on Federal Reserve rate cuts.
A stronger-than-expected CPI report may boost the U.S. dollar, putting pressure on GBP/USD, while weaker inflation data could reignite buying interest in the pound.
Related News
- GOLD Price Analysis – March 10, 2025
EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 10, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair extend its upward trend and remained bullish around above 1.0875 level.
However, the shared currency has gained momentum amid positive Eurozone data. Meanwhile, the bearish US dollar, pressured by the signs of an economic slowdown, was seen as another key factor that supported the EUR/USD pair.
Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index Jumps to -2.9 in March
On the data front, the latest Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index for March surged to -2.9, a sharp improvement from February's reading of -12.7.
This unexpected uptick in investor sentiment signals a recovery in confidence about the economic outlook for the region, particularly in Germany, the Eurozone’s economic powerhouse.
According to Sentix, Germany’s industrial sector saw an impressive boost in January, with industrial output rising by 2% month-on-month (MoM), beating expectations of a 1.5% increase.
Sentix described investor sentiment in Germany as “downright euphoric,” suggesting a growing belief that the country’s economy is on a positive trajectory.
Meanwhile, the Eurozone’s current situation indicator also showed progress, increasing to -21.8 from -25.5 in February. This suggests that investors are becoming increasingly optimistic about the region’s recovery, supported by Germany’s strong economic performance.
Therefore, the improvement in the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index, especially driven by Germany's strong economic performance, boosts investor optimism, supporting EUR/USD gains as confidence in the Eurozone rises.
Weak US Data and Trump’s Uncertain Economic Agenda Weigh on USD
On the other hand, the US Dollar faced downward pressure as the market digested disappointing economic data and increasing concerns over President Donald Trump’s economic policies.
Data showing a 15-month low in US Consumer Confidence, a drop in ISM Manufacturing New Orders, and weaker-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for February have raised doubts about the strength of the US economy.
These indicators suggest that the US may be headed for a slowdown, adding to worries over the effectiveness of Trump’s "America First" policies.
In a recent interview with Fox News, Trump acknowledged that his administration’s policies would result in short-term economic shocks, reinforcing fears of potential disruption to the US economy. Trump’s unpredictable tariff and tax policies have created uncertainty, leading investors to scale back expectations for US growth in the near term.
As a result, market participants are increasingly betting on the Federal Reserve (Fed) to resume its policy easing cycle, with the likelihood of a rate cut in the June meeting rising to 82%, up from 54% a month ago.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has maintained a cautious stance, emphasizing the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s economic agenda and its effects on the broader economy.
Euro Faces Pressure from ECB’s Caution on Interest Rates
Despite the positive data from the Eurozone, the Euro is facing some challenges in the short term. After strong gains last week, traders are taking profits, which is putting some pressure on the currency.
Additionally, there are concerns about the European Central Bank's (ECB) future actions. Last week, the ECB cut its Deposit Facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, but they did not commit to further rate cuts or a broader expansion of monetary policy.
ECB officials, including Mario Centeno, have indicated that the Eurozone is moving towards "normalizing" its monetary policy, with inflation decreasing and getting closer to the ECB’s target. These factors are causing some caution around the Euro’s near-term performance.
On the other hand, Germany’s move to extend its borrowing limit and establish a EUR500 billion infrastructure fund for defense spending has forced traders to revise expectations for ECB rate cuts. As a result, the Euro’s bullish momentum has been capped, although sentiment remains generally positive.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair remains in a tight consolidation phase, hovering around $1.08338 after a recent pullback from its highs. The pair is struggling to gain significant bullish traction but remains supported above the 50-day EMA at $1.07483, reinforcing the broader uptrend.
On the upside, the first key resistance is at $1.08855, which aligns with recent highs. A decisive breakout above this level could trigger further gains toward $1.09312, followed by $1.09686, where sellers may emerge. However, failure to clear these levels could lead to renewed selling pressure.
On the downside, immediate support lies at $1.07658, aligning with last week's lows. If this level gives way, EUR/USD could retest the next key supports at $1.07164 and $1.06579. A break below these zones would expose the pair to further downside risk, potentially targeting the 200-day EMA near $1.0562.
Fundamentally, traders remain cautious ahead of key U.S. inflation data, which could influence Federal Reserve rate expectations.
A stronger-than-expected CPI report may bolster the U.S. dollar, pressuring EUR/USD lower, while weaker data could fuel expectations of an earlier Fed rate cut, supporting further upside in the pair.
Related News
- GOLD Price Analysis – March 10, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – March 10, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold price (XAU/USD) failed to break its consolidating phase and remains under pressure around the $2,901 level in early European trading session on Monday.
The metal is struggling to gain strong momentum despite support from a weaker US dollar and ongoing global uncertainties.
However, the concerns over the economic impact of US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs and the risk of a global trade war continue to push investors toward safe-haven assets like gold. Nevertheless, the market remains cautious, and buying interest has been limited.
Meanwhile, the weaker US jobs report has increased expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates multiple times this year.
Hence, the softer labor market and anticipated policy easing have weighed on the US dollar, keeping it near its lowest level since November.
This has provided some support to gold prices, but the metal remains trapped in a tight range, unable to sustain a breakout.
Uncertainty Over Trump’s Tariffs and Fed Policy Outlook Weigh on Investor Sentiment
Despite the upbeat sentiment in the market, investor sentiment remains on edge due to the uncertainty surrounding US President Trump’s protectionist tariffs.
These tariffs could slow down US economic growth and potentially force the Federal Reserve to resume rate cuts in June.
Recently, Trump expressed uncertainty about upcoming tariffs on Canada, saying they may or may not be implemented on Monday or Tuesday.
This came after a temporary one-month waiver of the 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods, which was part of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement.
Consequently, the ongoing uncertainty surrounding trade policies is keeping investors cautious, and they are closely monitoring any further developments. The situation could influence economic growth projections and the Fed’s next moves, adding to market volatility.
On the Fed front, Chair Jerome Powell emphasized on Friday that the economic impact of Trump’s policies is still uncertain.
Meanwhile, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly mentioned that growing uncertainty among businesses could slow US economic growth but doesn’t yet require an immediate change in policy.
Despite these comments, markets are expecting the Federal Reserve to make three rate cuts of 25 basis points each before the year ends.
This expectation continues to weigh on the US Dollar, creating a bearish outlook and indirectly boosting support for gold prices.
Weaker US Jobs Report Weighs on USD, Supporting Gold But Limiting Momentum
On the data front, the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report revealed that the US economy added 151,000 jobs in February, falling short of the expected 160,000.
Meanwhile, January’s job growth was revised down to 125,000 from the previous 143,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly increased to 4.1% from 4.0%, raising concerns about a potential slowdown in the labor market.
As a result of the weaker jobs report, US Treasury bond yields have dropped, putting more pressure on the US Dollar. Despite these factors helping gold, the metal remains stuck in a narrow range and is struggling to gain momentum.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold prices are holding steady at $2,913.19, reflecting a marginal decline amid cautious market sentiment. The metal has struggled to break above key resistance, with technical indicators suggesting a near-term consolidation phase before a potential breakout.
The pivot point at $2,902.47 is acting as a crucial intraday level, offering a strong base of support. Immediate resistance is identified at $2,929.94, with further hurdles at $2,942.57 and $2,954.43.
If bullish momentum builds, gold could challenge these levels, signaling a continuation of its uptrend. Conversely, support is firm at $2,884.54, with further downside protection at $2,872.63 and $2,858.99. A break below these levels may trigger a deeper correction.
From a technical perspective, gold remains above its 50-day EMA at $2,913.19, reinforcing the bullish trend. However, price action near this level suggests a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers, with the market awaiting a catalyst for directional movement.
If gold sustains a move above $2,913, bullish momentum could push prices toward $2,930, while a failure to hold this level may lead to a test of lower supports.
In conclusion, gold’s near-term trajectory hinges on its ability to maintain support above $2,913. A buy position above $2,913 remains favorable, targeting $2,930, with a stop-loss at $2,905 to mitigate downside risk.
Related News
- GBP/USD Price Analysis – March 10, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – March 07, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, Gold (XAU/USD) extended its bullish trend and held steady above the $2,900 level. However, the precious metal's rally remained intact as the weakening US Dollar and rising expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts provided strong support.
Fed’s Dovish Stance and Rate Cut Expectations Weigh on USD, Boosting Gold’s Appeal
On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar lost momentum following dovish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) official Christopher Waller. He stated that while a March rate cut is unlikely, the Fed is open to reducing rates two or three times this year.
He mentioned that a rate cut in March is unlikely but said the Fed could lower rates two or three times this year. Markets agree with this outlook, expecting the first cut around June. This softer stance put pressure on the USD, helping Gold hold onto its gains.
The Fed remains cautious about the timing of rate cuts, with officials monitoring inflation trends before making policy adjustments. Fed official Christopher Waller said that a strong job market and slowing inflation could support rate cuts in the coming months.
This has boosted demand for Gold since lower interest rates make it more attractive by reducing the cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bullion.
Geopolitical Tensions and Trade Concerns Lift Gold Demand
On the geopolitical front, the tensions between the US and China escalated after Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi defended China’s handling of fentanyl exports and accused the US of using the issue to exert pressure. Hence, the rising geopolitical uncertainty bolstered Gold's appeal as a hedge against economic instability.
Moreover, Australia recorded its highest-ever Gold exports to the US in January, totaling A$4.6 billion ($2.9 billion), as traders rushed to deliver metal to New York warehouses amid concerns over potential tariffs.
Therefore, the rising US-China tensions and record Australian Gold exports to the US increased demand for Gold as a safe-haven asset, supporting its price by fueling investor concerns over economic instability and potential trade restrictions.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,912.07, maintaining a narrow range as investors assess key economic data. The metal remains above its pivot point at $2,905.47, signaling a potential bullish bias.
However, upside momentum faces resistance at $2,929.94, with additional hurdles at $2,942.57 and $2,954.43. A breakout above these levels could open the door for further gains, particularly if economic uncertainty persists.
On the downside, immediate support sits at $2,884.75, with deeper levels at $2,872.63 and $2,858.99. A breach below $2,905.47 could accelerate selling pressure, shifting sentiment toward a more bearish outlook.
The 50-day EMA at $2,904.74 is providing dynamic support, reinforcing the case for buyers in the market. Gold’s ability to hold above this level is crucial for maintaining its upward momentum.
A strong Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday could pressure gold lower, strengthening the U.S. dollar and diminishing gold’s appeal. Conversely, a weaker-than-expected jobs report would likely boost expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, supporting gold prices.
Traders should watch for a sustained move above $2,929.94 to confirm further upside potential, while failure to hold above $2,905.47 may lead to a test of lower support levels.
Related News
- S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis – March 07, 2025
S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis – March 07, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
The S&P 500 index faced selling pressure on Friday, dropping to the 5,738 mark after hitting an intra-day low of 5,711. The decline was fueled by investor concerns over US President Donald Trump's shifting trade policies and anticipation of key economic data. Although US stock index futures attempted a modest rebound, market sentiment remained fragile as traders remained cautious.
S&P 500 Under Pressure Due to Trade Policy Uncertainty
On the trade front, Wall Street saw renewed volatility following President Trump's decision to delay the 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican goods until April 2 as part of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).
In response, Canada also postponed its planned tariffs on $125 billion worth of US products. Despite these temporary adjustments, markets remained unsettled due to the unpredictability of global trade policies.
The uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff strategies has led to concerns over long-term economic growth, with some analysts fearing that these policies could negatively impact corporate earnings. This, combined with ongoing geopolitical tensions, has weighed on investor sentiment, limiting upside potential for the S&P 500.
US Employment Data and Federal Reserve Rate Outlook in Focus
Meanwhile, market participants are keenly awaiting the February employment report, which is expected to show an increase in nonfarm payrolls to 156,000 from January’s 143,000.
The unemployment rate is projected to hold steady at 4.0%, while wage growth is anticipated to slow to 0.3% from the previous 0.5%. Moreover, initial jobless claims fell to 221,000 last week, signaling labor market resilience despite broader economic concerns.
However, reports of rising unemployment claims among federal workers due to layoffs initiated by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), led by Elon Musk, added uncertainty to the labor market outlook. Traders are now focused on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming comments, which could provide further clarity on the central bank’s rate policy stance.
Federal Reserve Rate Cut Speculation Weighs on Market Sentiment
On the US front, concerns about trade policies and possible Federal Reserve rate cuts are affecting market sentiment. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said the economy is strong but warned about rising consumer stress and inflation risks.
Meanwhile, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic pointed out economic uncertainty and urged caution in making policy decisions.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he’s not in favor of a rate cut at the March meeting but noted that cuts could happen later this year if inflation continues to drop.
Markets show little chance of a rate cut in March, and traders are split on whether it will happen in May. However, investors are expecting a rate cut in June, with another one likely in September.
Looking ahead, market participants will closely monitor the upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which is expected to reflect the addition of 160,000 jobs in February. Any surprises in employment data could shift expectations regarding Fed policy, influencing the S&P 500’s near-term direction.
S&P 500 – Technical Analysis
The S&P 500 (SPX) is trading at 5738.53, maintaining a cautious stance as investors assess market conditions ahead of key economic data. The index remains below its pivot point at 5762.50, signaling a potential downside bias.
Immediate support is located at 5680.36, with further declines potentially targeting 5616.83 and 5558.78 if selling pressure intensifies.
On the upside, resistance is seen at 5861.08, with a break above this level opening the door for a move toward 5938.02 and 6007.97.
However, the 50-day EMA at 5944.00 suggests that bulls may struggle to reclaim control unless broader market sentiment improves.
The technical outlook remains bearish as long as the index stays below 5762.50, reinforcing the risk of further downside.
A decisive break below 5680.36 could accelerate selling, pushing SPX toward deeper support zones.
Conversely, a move above 5762.50 may shift momentum in favor of buyers, with potential for an upside retracement.
Related News
- GOLD Price Analysis – March 07, 2025
EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 07, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During Friday’s European session, the EUR/USD currency pair extended its bullish momentum, surging above the 1.0850 level and hitting the intra-day high of 1.0871level.
However, the shared currency gained traction as traders reassessed their expectations for the European Central Bank (ECB) after Germany confirmed a €500 billion infrastructure fund and proposed changes to the "debt brake."
These reforms could lead to higher inflation, which may slow down the ECB’s plans to cut interest rates. However, ECB President Christine Lagarde avoided commenting on these changes during her press conference, saying that increased spending on defense and infrastructure is still under review.
With inflation concerns rising, market expectations for ECB rate cuts have shifted. Traders now speculate that the ECB may pause its rate-cutting cycle in April after five consecutive reductions. Before the ECB’s latest meeting, investors had expected two more rate cuts by summer.
Lagarde maintained a cautious stance, saying future rate decisions would be based on economic data and decided on a "meeting-by-meeting" basis. This uncertainty, combined with a weaker US Dollar, has helped EUR/USD maintain its bullish momentum.
US Dollar Weakness and Market Sentiment
Another factor that has been supporting the EUR/USD pair is the US Dollar’s weakness ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against major currencies, has been falling for five straight days, reaching a four-month low of 103.60.
Meanwhile, the US economic outlook and Trump’s tariff policies have added pressure on the US Dollar. Investors worry that higher tariffs could hurt US importers and reduce consumer spending, weakening the economy.
On Thursday, Trump temporarily eased some tariffs under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) but confirmed that new tariffs will take effect on April 2.
Moving ahead, the upcoming US NFP report is expected to show an increase of 160K jobs in February, higher than the 143K recorded in January.
In the meantime, the Unemployment Rate is projected to remain steady at 4%, while Average Hourly Earnings are anticipated to rise by 4.1% year-on-year.
However, the month-on-month wage growth rate is expected to slow to 0.3%, down from 0.5% in January.
On the other hand, the next major event for the Euro is the German parliamentary vote on debt brake reforms, scheduled for March 18.
This could affect inflation and influence the ECB’s decisions. On the other hand, US job data will give more clues about the Fed’s next moves, which will impact EUR/USD trends. (edited)
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.08178, holding steady as markets digest economic data and central bank signals. The pair remains above its pivot point at $1.07640, indicating near-term bullish sentiment, though gains are limited by key resistance at $1.08521.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at $1.07100, with deeper levels at $1.06579 and $1.06049. A move below the pivot point may weaken sentiment, triggering a shift toward a bearish outlook.
The 50-day EMA at $1.06489 is acting as dynamic support, reinforcing buyers' control. The euro’s performance remains tied to expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank (ECB) policy outlook.
A dovish Fed stance could weaken the dollar, providing support to EUR/USD, while stronger U.S. labor market data may strengthen the greenback, capping further gains in the euro.
Looking ahead, traders will focus on Friday’s U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which could set the tone for the Federal Reserve’s next move.
If job growth exceeds expectations, it may fuel speculation of delayed rate cuts, potentially driving EUR/USD lower. Conversely, a weaker labor market print could reinforce Fed easing bets, pushing the pair higher.
A decisive break above $1.08521 would confirm bullish momentum, while a drop below $1.07640 could trigger further downside pressure.
Related News
- GOLD Price Analysis – March 07, 2025
USD/JPY Price Analysis – March 06, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
The USD/JPY currency pair extended its sharp decline and remained under pressure around the 147.70 level during the European trading session.
The pair's bearish trend can be attributed to the strengthening Japanese Yen (JPY), which continues to gain traction against a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD).
The JPY remains near its multi-month high, supported by growing expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue hiking interest rates.
Stronger Japanese Yen Driven by BoJ's Hawkish Outlook
The Japanese Yen has been strengthening amid growing speculation that the Bank of Japan will tighten its monetary policy further.
BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida stated that the central bank is prepared to adjust its policy in response to economic conditions.
This hawkish stance has fueled expectations of additional rate hikes, leading to a surge in Japanese bond yields.
Notably, the yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond has reached its highest level since June 2009. The narrowing yield gap between Japan and other economies has provided further support to the JPY, adding to the downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair.
Weaker US Dollar Amid Rate Cut Expectations and Soft Economic Data
On the US front, the US dollar has been struggling amid growing expectations that the Federal Reserve may begin cutting interest rates as early as June.
On the data front, the latest economic data has reinforced these expectations, with the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) report revealing that private-sector employment increased by just 77K in February, significantly below the 140K forecast.
In the meantime, US consumer confidence deteriorated to a 15-month low, further fueling speculation that the Fed will need to adopt a more accommodative policy stance.
Despite positive data indicating continued expansion in the US services sector, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has extended its weekly downtrend, dropping to its lowest level since November 6.
The prolonged weakness of the USD has contributed to the sharp decline in the USD/JPY pair, with traders remaining cautious ahead of the highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report due on Friday.
Traders will now turn their attention to upcoming US economic data releases, particularly the US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls report. These reports will provide fresh insights into the US labor market and could influence the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.
If the data further supports the case for Fed rate cuts, the USD/JPY pair could experience additional downside pressure.
USD/JPY – Technical Analysis
USD/JPY is trading at 148.852, edging lower as sellers gain control below the pivot point at 149.326. The pair remains under pressure as market sentiment tilts toward a risk-off environment, and traders assess the outlook for U.S. interest rates and Bank of Japan policy shifts.
Technically, the 50-day EMA at 149.672 acts as a dynamic resistance level, reinforcing the bearish outlook below 149.30. Immediate resistance is set at 150.174, and a break above this level could lead to a test of 151.208 and potentially extend toward 152.128. However, the downward momentum suggests further downside potential if the pair remains below its pivot level.
On the support side, 148.189 serves as immediate protection against deeper declines. If this level breaks, the next targets lie at 147.435 and 146.690, areas where buyers may attempt to stabilize the pair.
For now, a sustained move below 149.30 confirms bearish control, with further losses expected toward 148.19. A rebound above this level could lead to short-term consolidation, but a stronger push beyond 150.17 is required to shift momentum back in favor of buyers.
Related News
- GOLD Price Analysis – March 06, 2025