AUD/USD Price Analysis – March 06, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD pair extended its gains, holding steady around the 0.6345 level as the US dollar remained under pressure amid improved risk sentiment and weaker US economic data.
Market confidence received a boost after the White House announced a temporary exemption for automakers from newly imposed import tariffs on Mexico and Canada.
Moreover, the administration is considering tariff exclusions for certain agricultural products. This development helped ease investor concerns, supporting risk-sensitive assets like the Australian Dollar.
Australia’s Trade and Economic Data Support AUD/USD
On the AUD front, the Australian economy continues to show strength, with positive trade and economic data boosting the AUD.
Australia’s trade surplus rose to 5,620 million in January, exceeding the expected 5,500 million and improving from the previous 4,924 million.
The rise in exports, particularly non-monetary gold, combined with a decline in imports, supported the trade balance.
Moreover, building permits in Australia surged by 6.3% in January, marking the second consecutive month of expansion and the fastest growth rate since July 2023. Therefore, the strong domestic data provided further support for the Australian Dollar, allowing it to maintain its gains against the Greenback.
US Dollar Weakens Amid Economic Concerns
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar faced downward pressure as economic concerns mounted. On the data front, the US ADP Employment Change for February reported only 77K new jobs, significantly below the forecast of 140K and the previous month’s 186K.
Investors are now awaiting the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which is expected to show a modest rebound to 160K jobs in February.
Meanwhile, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI came in slightly lower at 50.3 versus the expected 50.5, further fueling concerns about economic momentum. Moreover, the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book for March highlighted uncertainties stemming from Trump’s trade policies, signaling potential strain on economic activity.
Therefore, the weaker US economic data and Fed's Beige Book uncertainties pressured the USD, boosting AUD/USD. Investors anticipate a dovish Fed stance, supporting the Aussie as risk sentiment improves.
Geopolitical Tensions and China’s Economic Outlook Impact AUD/USD
Despite the strong domestic data, the Australian Dollar’s gains could be limited due to ongoing geopolitical tensions. However, the Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson stated that China is prepared to respond to any escalation in tariffs imposed by the US.
Given China’s status as Australia’s largest trading partner, heightened trade tensions could weigh on the Aussie Dollar.
On a positive note, China’s Services PMI unexpectedly rose to 51.4 in February from 51.0 in January, exceeding market expectations.
Additionally, Chinese authorities set a target of approximately 5% economic growth for 2025, with a 2% goal for the Consumer Price Index (CPI). These factors could provide some support to the Australian Dollar, given its close economic ties with China.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
AUD/USD is trading at $0.63392, showing resilience above its pivot point of $0.63386, as traders gauge market sentiment ahead of key U.S. and Australian economic data.
The pair has remained in a tight consolidation phase, but the short-term technical setup suggests a potential breakout if buying pressure intensifies.
The 50-day EMA at $0.62483 provides solid dynamic support, reinforcing the pair’s near-term bullish outlook. Immediate resistance stands at $0.63650, and a decisive break above this level could push AUD/USD toward $0.64051, where further bullish momentum may emerge.
A move past this resistance zone would set up a potential rally toward $0.64452, marking the next key level for traders to monitor.
On the downside, the immediate support level is at $0.63035, followed by $0.62681 and $0.62326. A breakdown below the pivot point could trigger selling pressure, exposing the pair to further declines, particularly if global risk sentiment weakens or the U.S. dollar strengthens on positive data.
Macroeconomic factors remain critical in shaping AUD/USD’s trajectory. The Australian dollar has found support from stabilizing commodity prices and expectations of a less aggressive Federal Reserve stance on interest rates.
However, any surprises in upcoming U.S. employment data or inflation readings could drive volatility in the pair.
For now, traders should watch for a sustained move above $0.63650 as confirmation of renewed bullish strength. A failure to break this resistance could lead to further consolidation, keeping the pair range-bound in the short term.
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- GOLD Price Analysis – March 06, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – March 06, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, gold (XAU/USD) lost its bullish momentum and declined to around $2,900, failing to hold near its all-time high of $2,956.
However, the major factor behind this drop was the delay in the implementation of US car tariffs, which improved investor sentiment and reduced safe-haven demand for gold.
Despite some easing in tariffs for Canada and Mexico, the reciprocal trade measures are still set to take effect in April, keeping market uncertainty alive.
This has led to continued safe-haven demand for gold, though the latest developments have capped further gains.
Apart from this, investors are keeping their eyes on the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision, where markets anticipate a 25-basis-point cut.
Meanwhile, European Union leaders are set to discuss a defense spending package and potential further aid to Ukraine, which could influence broader market sentiment.
Weaker US Data and Fed Rate Cut Bets Boost Gold Prices
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar is losing its traction amid slowing economic momentum. This can be witnessed by the weaker US economic data.
The ADP Employment Change report for February showed just 77K new jobs, significantly below the forecast of 140K and January’s 186K, raising concerns about a slowing labor market.
Moreover, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.3, slightly under the expected 50.5 and January’s 50.9, signaling weakening economic activity.
However, S&P Global’s final Manufacturing PMI for February exceeded expectations at 52.7, providing a slight relief. These developments have fueled expectations of multiple Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025 as the economy shows signs of softening.
Investors are now awaiting Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which is projected to show a modest recovery in job growth to 160K in February, up from January’s 143K. Any disappointment in the data could further support Fed rate cut bets, potentially influencing gold prices.
Hence, the weaker US economic data and rising Fed rate cut expectations support gold prices by weakening the US dollar and lowering bond yields. Moving on, the disappointing NFP report could further boost gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,921.65, reflecting a cautious but steady bullish bias. The metal remains above its pivot point of $2,907.49, signaling that buyers are maintaining control. The 50-day EMA at $2,905.09 continues to act as a dynamic support level, reinforcing the ongoing uptrend.
Immediate resistance is seen at $2,939.51, a level that gold has struggled to break in recent sessions. If buyers push through this barrier, further gains toward $2,956.29 and $2,970.29 could be on the horizon.
A confirmed breakout above these resistance levels may accelerate momentum, targeting fresh highs as traders assess market sentiment.
On the downside, immediate support is at $2,884.56, with additional safety nets at $2,863.79 and $2,844.79. A break below $2,907.49 would weaken the bullish outlook and shift momentum in favor of sellers, increasing the risk of a pullback toward these support levels.
From a broader perspective, gold remains supported by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and trade-related uncertainties.
Market participants are closely monitoring economic data releases, particularly labor market indicators, which could influence Fed policy expectations.A weaker U.S. dollar and softer job data could provide additional fuel for gold’s next leg higher.
For now, traders should watch for confirmation above $2,939.51 to validate continued upside momentum. Failing to hold above $2,907.49 could signal renewed selling pressure, exposing gold to a deeper correction.
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- AUD/USD Price Analysis – March 06, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – March 05, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the early European session on Wednesday, the price of gold (XAU/USD) extended its winning streak and remained well bid around above 2,920 level.
However, the bullish rally was supported by increased safe-haven demand. The rise in gold prices comes amid growing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, particularly due to the US tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China.
Although, the gains were slightly capped by rising US Treasury yields, which put pressure on non-yielding assets like gold.
Rising Trade Tensions and Geopolitical Uncertainty Boost Gold’s Safe-Haven Appeal
It should be noted that the recent implementation of a 25% tariff by former US President Donald Trump on Mexican and Canadian imports, along with an increase in Chinese duties to 20%, has heightened trade tensions. This has led investors to seek safe-haven assets such as gold.
Moreover, the US's decision to pause military aid to Ukraine further fueled market uncertainty, boosting demand for the precious metal. The latest reports indicate that all US military equipment not yet delivered to Ukraine has been grounded, raising concerns about geopolitical stability.
Apart from this, Canada has confirmed retaliatory tariffs on US imports, while China’s Commerce Ministry announced additional tariffs of up to 15% on key US farm products. These developments increase the risk of a global trade war, dampening investor sentiment and reinforcing gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.
Gold's Bullish Momentum Limited by Rising US Treasury Yields and Strong Dollar
Despite gold’s bullish momentum, the rising US Treasury yields have limited its upside trend. At the time of writing, the US 2-year bond yield stands at 3.98%, while the 10-year yield is at 4.25%.
On the data front, the recent ISM Manufacturing PMI data showed a decline to 50.3 from 50.9 in the previous month, while the Prices Paid Index surged to a nearly three-year high due to concerns over import duties.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) remains strong, trading around 105.70, which could also limit the gold’s bullish movement.
Moving ahead, investors are now shifting their focus to key US economic data releases scheduled for the North American session, particularly the ISM Services PMI and the ADP Employment Change report.
Hence, the weaker-than-expected PMI could reinforce concerns about slowing economic growth, supporting gold prices further.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading at $2,915.74, struggling to maintain bullish momentum as it hovers near key support levels. The pivot point at $2,907.49 remains a critical threshold for determining the metal’s short-term trajectory.
The 50-day EMA at $2,906.78 suggests a near-term consolidation phase, with traders watching closely for a breakout or breakdown.
On the upside, a decisive push above $2,907 could strengthen bullish sentiment, paving the way for a move toward $2,956.85, the first major resistance level. If momentum persists, gold may extend its rally toward $2,978.40, with a further upside target at $2,996.71.
Conversely, failure to hold above $2,907 could expose the market to downside risks. Immediate support sits at $2,883.16, and a sustained drop below this level may accelerate selling pressure toward $2,859.91, with deeper losses potentially testing the $2,832.63 level.
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- EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 05, 2025
GBP/USD Price Analysis – March 05, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair maintained its bullish trend and remained well bid around the 1.2830 level, hitting an intra-day high of 1.2855.
The bullish momentum was driven by traders assessing the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy outlook and increasing expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts, alongside a weaker US Dollar due to political and economic uncertainties.
BoE Governor's Testimony and Cautious Rate Cut Outlook Weigh on GBP/USD Volatility
On the GBP front, the BoE Governor Andrew Bailey’s testimony before Parliament’s Treasury Committee at 14:30 GMT is in focus.
Investors are keen to hear the BoE’s views on interest rates after the central bank cut borrowing costs by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.5% in February, signaling a slow and cautious approach to future cuts.
The BoE also warned that rising energy prices in Q3 could push inflation temporarily higher, delaying its return to the 2% target.
Traders anticipate two more BoE rate cuts this year but remain cautious as businesses may pass on increased employment costs, particularly after the government’s decision to raise employer National Insurance (NI) contributions in the Autumn Budget. These inflationary pressures could limit the BoE’s ability to implement aggressive rate cuts.
Therefore, the cautious stance from the BoE and concerns over inflationary pressures may limit GBP strength, keeping the GBP/USD pair volatile as traders assess future rate cut expectations.
US Dollar Weakens on Trump’s Tariff Policies and Fed Rate Cut Bets
On the US front, the US dollar losing its traction, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) slipping near 105.00, as concerns over former President Donald Trump’s proposed tariff policies weighed on sentiment.
His plans to impose a 25% levy on Canadian and Mexican imports and a 10% tariff on Chinese goods have raised fears of increased costs for consumers, which could weaken household purchasing power and slow economic growth.
Meanwhile, the expectations of Fed rate cuts continue to increase as the recent weak US economic data has fueled speculation that the Fed may lower interest rates in June, with CME FedWatch data showing the probability of a cut rising to 80% from 70% a week ago.
Moving ahead, traders will keep their eyes on the US ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI data for more clues about the labor market. Apart from this, the Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report will also be important for predicting future Fed policy.
GBP/USD – Technical Analysis
The GBP/USD pair is trading at $1.27896, holding onto slight gains as it tests key technical levels. The pivot point at $1.27752 is a crucial support zone, with buyers maintaining control above this threshold. The 50-day EMA at $1.26605 indicates a strong bullish foundation, reinforcing upward momentum.
If the pair breaks above $1.27740, bullish momentum could accelerate toward $1.28689, the first major resistance level. A breakout above this could extend gains to $1.29481, with a further bullish target at $1.30478, last seen during recent uptrends. Strong volume confirmation above $1.28701 would signal a continued bullish breakout.
On the downside, immediate support rests at $1.26792, with a break below this level likely shifting sentiment in favor of sellers. Further weakness could expose GBP/USD to $1.25663, and deeper losses could test $1.24667, where long-term buyers may step in.
The technical outlook favors a bullish stance, provided GBP/USD holds above the $1.27752 pivot. A confirmed break above $1.28689 could set the stage for further gains, while a drop below $1.26792 may trigger selling pressure.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 05, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair extended its upward momentum on Wednesday, reaching near 1.0720, the highest level seen this year.
However, the shared currency strengthened as investors moved away from the US Dollar (USD) amid growing concerns over the United States (US) economic outlook.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, slipped to a three-month low of 105.15.
EUR/USD Strengthens Amid Weak US Dollar and Rate Cut Expectations
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar came under pressure as market participants reassessed their expectations regarding US economic growth.
Investors are increasingly worried that former President Donald Trump’s proposed tariff policies could slow down economic expansion rather than fuel inflation and growth, as previously expected.
Adding to the bearish sentiment, Citi analysts forecasted a 0.1% decline in Q1 real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and projected that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might resume its rate-cut cycle in May, after pausing in December. This, in turn, has pressured the US dollar, making the Euro more attractive.
German Debt Reforms and ECB Policy Outlook Support Euro
On the flip side, the Euro found support from expectations of fiscal expansion in Germany. Frederich Merz, the likely next German chancellor, along with the Social Democratic Party (SPD), has agreed on a 500 billion Euro infrastructure fund and a relaxation of borrowing limits.
These changes could boost economic growth in the Eurozone and push inflation higher, helping the Euro stay strong.
However, the upcoming European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy meeting remains a key event for EUR/USD traders. Notably, the ECB is widely expected to cut its Deposit Facility Rate by 25 basis points (bps) for the fifth consecutive time.
Meanwhile, ECB President Christine Lagarde is expected to clarify the bank’s monetary policy path. Investors will closely watch her remarks on the impact of Trump’s tariffs and Germany’s fiscal policies on the Eurozone economy.
Trade Tensions and US Economic Data to Impact EUR/USD
On the geopolitical front, the US has already imposed 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico and 10% on Chinese goods, with additional reciprocal tariffs set to take effect from April 2.
This poses a risk to the Euro, as Germany, a key economy in the Eurozone, is a major car exporter to the US. Trump’s plan to raise tariffs on foreign automobiles from 2.5% to 25% could hurt German automakers, impacting exports and economic growth. If trade tensions escalate, market uncertainty may weigh on the Euro, affecting the EUR/USD pair.
Looking ahead, investors will focus on key US economic data, including the ADP Employment Change and ISM Services data for February, set to be released in the North American session.
These figures could shape market expectations for the Fed’s monetary policy, ultimately influencing EUR/USD’s next move.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.06248, struggling to hold above key support levels as the U.S. dollar retains strength. The pivot point at $1.06351 is a crucial threshold, with the pair teetering just below it. The 50-day EMA at $1.04784 signals a bearish bias, suggesting further downside potential if sellers remain in control.
A break below $1.06344 could accelerate selling pressure, with immediate support at $1.05614 acting as the next key level. If the bearish momentum continues, EUR/USD could decline further toward $1.04962, with an extended downside target at $1.04448, marking a multi-week low.
On the upside, resistance remains firm at $1.06990, with a break above this level required for any meaningful recovery. If the pair manages to push higher, the next upside hurdles are $1.07453 and $1.08038, where sellers may re-emerge. However, given the current bearish sentiment, a sustained move above $1.06837 is required to shift momentum.
The technical landscape remains bearish, as long as EUR/USD trades below the pivot point at $1.06351. A confirmed break below $1.05614 could trigger further declines, while a push above $1.06990 would be needed to negate the bearish outlook.
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- GOLD Price Analysis – March 05, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – March 04, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) maintained its strong bullish momentum, surging to an intra-day high of $2,921 and currently trading around $2,920 on Tuesday.
This rally was driven by heightened trade tensions after former US President Donald Trump confirmed new tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China. This fueled risk aversion, weakening the US dollar and boosting gold’s appeal as a safe haven, driving prices higher.
Gold Supported by Trade War Escalation and Weaker US Yields
Notably, the US announced that it will impose new tariffs on key trading partners, which prompted immediate retaliation from Canada and China. Canada confirmed a 25% tariff on $30 billion worth of US imports, with additional tariffs on $125 billion in goods set to follow within 21 days.
Meanwhile, China announced additional tariffs of up to 15% on US agricultural imports, including chicken, pork, soy, and beef, effective March 10. This tit-for-tat trade war has increased uncertainty in global markets, driving investors toward safe-haven assets like gold.
At the same time, the broad-based US dollar is losing traction, thanks to declining US Treasury yields. The benchmark US 10-year yield hit a five-month low of 4.11% on Tuesday. this was seen as another key factor that boost Gold price.
US Halts Military Aid to Ukraine, Escalating Geopolitical Tensions and Boosting Gold’s Appeal
On the flip side, Bloomberg reports that the US has "paused" all military aid to Ukraine, with President Trump halting weapons shipments.
Additionally, tensions between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy escalated after a heated exchange led to the abandonment of a proposed agreement on Ukraine’s rare earth minerals.
These geopolitical risks have heightened market volatility, further boosting gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.
US Economic Data and Fed Rate Cut Expectations Impact Gold Price
On the data front, the ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.3, slightly below expectations, while S&P Global’s final Manufacturing PMI for February exceeded forecasts at 52.7.
Meanwhile, the US PCE inflation report showed steady inflation, with monthly headline PCE at 0.3% and annual PCE at 2.6%. However, the CME FedWatch Tool now indicates an 85.6% probability of a Fed rate cut by June, which could further weaken the US dollar and support gold prices.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold is trading at $2,887.61, facing downward pressure as it struggles below the pivot point of $2,893.92. The short-term technical setup suggests a bearish bias, with the 50-day EMA at $2,909.11 acting as immediate resistance.
A failure to reclaim this level could reinforce selling momentum, pushing prices toward the first support at $2,859.91, with further downside targets at $2,832.63 and $2,807.60.
On the upside, gold must break decisively above $2,893.92 to challenge resistance at $2,930.44, with a stronger rally possible toward $2,956.85 and $2,978.40 if buyers regain control.
However, given the metal’s inability to sustain gains above key moving averages, near-term risks remain skewed to the downside.
A sell strategy below $2,893 appears favorable, with a take-profit target at $2,859 and a stop-loss placed at $2,915. Traders should watch for price action near support levels, as increased volume around these zones could signal potential reversals.
If selling pressure intensifies, gold could extend its decline toward the $2,832 handle, reflecting broader weakness in the precious metals market.
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- USD/CAD Price Analysis – March 04, 2025
AUD/USD Price Analysis – March 04, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Despite the weaker US dollar, the AUD/USD currency pair continues its mild bearish trend, staying under pressure around the 0.6210 level. The downward movement can be attributed to the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Meeting Minutes and retail sales data.
However, the RBA's February minutes highlighted economic risks, strong job growth, and persistent inflation, which raised expectations for potential rate cuts.
This sentiment weighed on the AUD/USD pair. Apart from this, a risk-off market sentiment, fueled by escalating trade tensions, further contributed to the pressure on the pair.
AUD/USD Under Pressure Amid RBA Rate Cut Concerns and Mixed Economic Data
On the AUD front, the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Meeting Minutes and Retail Sales data kept the AUD/USD pair under pressure. However, the RBA’s February minutes highlighted economic risks and concerns about inflation, despite a strong job market.
The central bank noted that current labor market conditions did not align with its 2.5% inflation target, increasing the likelihood of future rate cuts. Meanwhile, the weaker consumer confidence and ongoing economic uncertainty continued to weigh on the Australian dollar.
On the data front, Australia’s retail sales rose by 0.3% in January after a 0.1% decline in December, but consumer confidence dropped to 87.7 from 89.8.
The manufacturing sector showed some resilience, with the PMI revised slightly down to 50.4 in February but still higher than January’s 50.2, marking its strongest growth since early 2023.
Meanwhile, Australia’s TD-MI Inflation Gauge fell by 0.2% in February, reversing a previous 0.1% rise, indicating slowing inflation after the RBA’s recent rate cut. These figures reinforced expectations that further rate cuts could be on the horizon, keeping the Aussie dollar under pressure.
On the global side, China’s economic data showed signs of recovery, which could impact the AUD/USD pair. The Caixin Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.8 in February from 50.1, exceeding market expectations. Similarly, the official NBS Manufacturing PMI climbed to 50.2 from 49.1, suggesting stronger industrial activity. The Non-Manufacturing PMI also improved, reaching 50.4.
Therefore, the AUD/USD pair remains under pressure as expectations of RBA rate cuts weaken the Aussie dollar, while improved Chinese data offers limited support, failing to offset broader economic concerns and weaker sentiment.
US Tariffs Spark Trade War Fears, Weighing on AUD/USD
On the geopolitical front, the tensions rose after US President Donald Trump confirmed new tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China. Markets were unsure if Trump would extend the deadline before Monday, as these countries had been making efforts to meet US demands.
However, he moved forward with the tariffs starting Tuesday, fueling uncertainty in global trade. This decision added pressure on market sentiment, affecting risk-sensitive assets like the Australian dollar (AUD).
In response, Canada and China announced retaliatory tariffs against US imports. Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stated that Canada would impose 25% tariffs on US goods worth C$30 billion from Tuesday, with additional tariffs on C$125 billion of products coming in 21 days.
Similarly, China’s Commerce Ministry declared new tariffs of up to 15% on key US agricultural products, including chicken, pork, soy, and beef, effective from March 10. These countermeasures heightened trade war concerns, weighing on market confidence.
For the AUD/USD pair, this trade dispute adds bearish pressure. The Australian dollar is highly sensitive to global trade conditions, particularly due to its strong economic ties with China.
Increased tariffs between the US and China could hurt demand for Australian exports, weakening the AUD against the USD. Traders will closely watch further developments, as any signs of easing tensions could help the Aussie dollar recover.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
The Australian dollar is trading at $0.62062, slipping below its pivot point of $0.62494 as sellers maintain control. The short-term trend remains bearish, with the pair struggling to regain traction above key technical levels.
The 50-day EMA at $0.62496 is acting as immediate resistance, reinforcing the near-term downside risk. A failure to reclaim this level could extend losses toward the first support at $0.61885, with additional downside potential toward $0.61407 and $0.60880 if bearish momentum intensifies.
On the upside, a breakout above $0.62494 could trigger a move toward the first resistance at $0.63034, with further bullish targets at $0.63546 and $0.64064. However, sustained buying pressure is required to confirm a shift in momentum.
Given the recent weakness, traders may consider buying above $0.61885, targeting a move toward $0.62499, with a stop-loss set at $0.61529 to manage downside risk.
Market participants should monitor broader macroeconomic factors, including U.S. dollar strength and risk sentiment, which continue to influence AUD/USD.
Rising U.S. bond yields and Federal Reserve rate expectations may keep pressure on the pair, while any improvement in global risk appetite could provide support for the Australian dollar.
Technical traders should watch for increased volume near key support levels, as a bounce from $0.61885 could indicate renewed buying interest. However, a break below this level would expose AUD/USD to further downside, reinforcing the bearish outlook.
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USD/CAD Price Analysis – March 04, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the USD/CAD pair struggled to extend its rally toward the 1.4500 mark, encountering strong selling pressure that pushed it down to 1.4428.
The pair touched an intra-day low of 1.4410 as the US Dollar lost momentum, despite the Canadian Dollar (CAD) sinking to a one-month low.
However, the Loonie came under additional pressure after US President Donald Trump confirmed that new tariffs—25% on Canadian goods and 10% on energy exports—would take effect starting Tuesday.
Therefore, the announcement fueled further weakness in the CAD, limiting USD/CAD’s upside potential and adding to market volatility.
Trump’s Tariffs and Lower Crude Prices Pressure the Canadian Dollar
On the US front, President Donald Trump reaffirmed plans to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico, which were originally set for April but moved up to March. The new trade restrictions have sparked fears of a trade war, raising concerns about their impact on the global economy.
Consequently, the Canadian Prime Minister’s office confirmed that Canada will impose retaliatory tariffs on US imports starting Tuesday.
Canada plans to begin with 25% tariffs on US imports worth C$30 billion and is actively considering additional non-tariff measures in collaboration with provinces and territories.
This escalating trade conflict introduces further uncertainty, which could impact both the Canadian Dollar and broader market sentiment in the coming sessions.
Meanwhile, lower crude oil prices have put additional pressure on the Canadian Dollar (CAD), as Canada is the largest oil exporter to the US. Reports that OPEC+ will increase oil production in April have further dragged oil prices down, reducing demand for the commodity-linked CAD.
Consequently, the tariffs and falling oil prices weakened the Canadian Dollar, pushing USD/CAD higher. However, trade war fears and market volatility limited the pair’s gains, preventing a sustained breakout above key resistance levels.
Weak US Data Fuels Fed Rate Cut Speculation, Weighing on USD
On the other hand, the US Dollar has been losing traction due to weaker economic data. The ISM reported that US Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.3 in February, below expectations of 50.5 and down from January’s 50.9.
This raised speculation that the Federal Reserve might cut rates in June, with the probability rising to 87% from 69% last week, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The dovish outlook pressured the US Dollar, limiting further gains for USD/CAD despite the Canadian Dollar's weakness.
USD/CAD – Technical Analysis
The U.S. dollar is holding firm against the Canadian dollar, trading at $1.44815, maintaining an upward bias but still below its pivot point of $1.45201.
The pair remains supported by the 50-day EMA at $1.44122, which has provided a near-term floor for buyers.
However, a failure to reclaim the pivot point could shift momentum lower, exposing USD/CAD to downside risks toward immediate support at $1.43964, followed by deeper levels at $1.43190 and $1.42453.
If bullish momentum persists, USD/CAD will need a decisive break above $1.45201 to test the first resistance at $1.45947. A stronger rally could extend gains toward $1.46429, with a more significant upside move targeting $1.47012.
However, recent price action suggests cautious trading, with selling pressure likely to emerge near resistance levels.
Traders may consider short positions below $1.45190, with a take-profit target at $1.44178 and a stop-loss at $1.45861 to manage risk. The U.S. dollar’s strength, largely driven by Federal Reserve rate expectations, remains a key factor in determining USD/CAD’s trajectory.
Meanwhile, oil price movements could influence the Canadian dollar, as stronger crude prices typically provide support for CAD, while weakness in energy markets could exacerbate downside risks for the loonie.
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- GOLD Price Analysis – March 04, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – March 03, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) extended its upward trend and remained well bid around $2,850 on Monday, after finding support near a three-week low of $2,832 from Friday.
However, the precious metal gained momentum as traders continued to expect that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by 0.25% twice before the year ends.
This outlook was strengthened by signs of weakening consumer sentiment, which failed to push the US Dollar higher, even though it had briefly recovered from its two-month low.
Gold Supported by Weaker USD and Rate Cut Expectations
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has been losing traction, thanks to the market expectations that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates in the near future.
However, the weakening of the dollar was also influenced by the latest economic data, including the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report, which showed that inflation remains under control.
Meanwhile, the monthly PCE came in steady at 0.3%, and the annual PCE was at 2.6%. Although inflation eased slightly in the core PCE category, the overall economic conditions provided a supportive backdrop for gold.
Moreover, the continued expectations of a possible rate cut by the Federal Reserve further pressured the US dollar, as lower rates make the dollar less attractive compared to other assets.
As a result, gold gained momentum, with investors seeking protection from potential economic instability, helping to maintain a positive bias for the precious metal.
Geopolitical Uncertainty and Trade Tensions Boost Gold Demand as a Safe Haven
Another factor supporting gold prices is the uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump's tariff plans. However, the ongoing trade tensions, particularly with China, have fueled concerns about potential economic fallout.
Meanwhile, the Trump's recent decision to limit Chinese investments in US strategic sectors and impose tariffs on key goods has intensified fears of a trade war. This, combined with rising geopolitical risks, has increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
Apart from this, the escalating tensions between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy added to the geopolitical uncertainty.
Notably, the planned agreement between the two leaders, which would have granted the US greater access to Ukraine's rare earth minerals, was abandoned following a heated exchange, further complicating the global political situation.
Global Economic Improvement Caps Gold Gains as Traders Await Key US Data
Despite increasing geopolitical uncertainty, the global market sentiment has been flashing green on the day as the global economy shows signs of improvement.
This can be witnessed by the fact that Manufacturing activity in both Australia and China showed positive growth, with Australia’s PMI revised upward and China’s PMI coming in stronger than expected.
This improvement in global economic conditions has capped further gains for gold, as traders stay cautious ahead of this week’s important US economic data releases.
Looking ahead, the focus will shift to key US economic reports, such as the ISM Manufacturing PMI and the highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls report.
These releases could provide fresh insights into the US economy and influence the direction of the US Dollar, which will, in turn, affect gold prices.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold prices (XAU/USD) are hovering near $2,863.95, struggling to gain momentum as key resistance levels limit upside potential. The pivot point at $2,867.09 remains a crucial level—staying below this threshold reinforces a bearish short-term bias.
Technically, gold is facing immediate resistance at $2,888.58, with stronger hurdles at $2,906.26 and $2,930.44. A breakout above these levels could shift momentum bullish, but failure to clear $2,867.09 leaves gold vulnerable to further declines.
On the downside, immediate support lies at $2,845.19, followed by $2,829.07 and $2,810.89, areas that could attract buying interest if tested.
The 50-day EMA at $2,894.43 is acting as a dynamic resistance, suggesting continued selling pressure below this mark.
Short-term traders should monitor price action closely—a sell entry below $2,866 with a take-profit target of $2,845 appears viable, with a stop-loss at $2,879 to manage risk.
Given the ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and Federal Reserve rate expectations, gold remains in a consolidation phase. A decisive move above resistance or below key support levels will likely determine its next direction.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 03, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair broke its three-day losing streak and edged higher around 1.0440 level.
However, the recovery in the Euro was driven by a weaker US dollar following the release of January’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data, which met expectations and alleviated concerns about unexpected inflation spikes in the United States. On the other hand, the Euro gained strength, supported by stronger-than-expected Eurozone inflation data.
Eurozone Inflation Data Supports EUR, But ECB's Easing Policy Limits Strength
On the data front, the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose 2.4% year-on-year (YoY) in February, a small decrease from January’s 2.5%. This was still a bit higher than the 2.3% that markets had expected. The core HICP, which excludes food and energy prices, increased by 2.6% YoY, matching market expectations but slightly down from 2.7% in January.
On a monthly basis, the HICP climbed by 0.5% in February, a bounce back from the 0.3% drop seen in January. Similarly, core HICP inflation grew 0.6% month-over-month, reversing January’s 0.9% decline. This increase in monthly inflation suggests that price pressures in the Eurozone are still present, even if overall inflation is cooling slightly.
However, the European Central Bank (ECB) has a target inflation rate of 2.0%, and this inflation data could impact future decisions on interest rates. Although the inflation numbers were higher than expected, the ECB is still likely to continue its policy of easing in its upcoming meeting.
US Dollar Weakens Despite Rising Yields and Trade Tensions, Boosting EUR/USD Outlook
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has weakened after three consecutive days of gains, trading around 107.30 on the US Dollar Index (DXY).
However, the downside for the Greenback could be limited as US Treasury yields are improving, with the 2-year yield at 4.02% and the 10-year yield at 4.24%. These rising yields suggest that the USD could still find support in the near term.
On the data front, the release of the January Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report provided a boost to the EUR/USD pair.
The data came in line with expectations, easing concerns over unexpected inflation spikes in the US. The headline PCE remained steady at 0.3% month-over-month, while the core PCE rose slightly to 0.3%, up from 0.2% in December.
On an annual basis, the headline PCE was 2.6%, just above forecasts, but unchanged from December's reading. Overall, the report helped ease inflation worries, which in turn supported the EUR/USD recovery.
Looking forward, the rising US-China trade tensions could offer support to the USD, as investors often turn to the Greenback during times of uncertainty.
US President Trump announced new tariffs on Chinese imports, starting this Tuesday, and also mentioned 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico set to take effect on March 4. This could cap EUR/USD gains as the USD strengthens due to safe-haven flows amid escalating trade tensions. (edited)
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.04126, showing minor losses as the dollar holds firm amid economic uncertainty. The pair remains below the pivot point at $1.03963, signaling a neutral to slightly bullish bias in the short term.
Immediate resistance is seen at $1.04518, followed by $1.04837 and $1.05279. A break above $1.04518 could strengthen bullish momentum, with traders eyeing the 50-day EMA at $1.04552 as a key level for further gains. However, failure to clear this resistance may trigger renewed selling pressure.
On the downside, immediate support is at $1.03451, with stronger levels at $1.03163 and $1.02824. If the pair falls below $1.03451, sellers could push the price lower, testing the $1.03163 level, which aligns with previous market structure.
Technically, the 50-day EMA at $1.04552 remains a critical barrier for the bulls. A buy entry above $1.03958 could target $1.04523, with a stop-loss at $1.03575 to manage downside risks. A breakout above $1.04518 would strengthen the case for further gains, while a move below $1.03451 could accelerate selling pressure.
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