EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 03, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair broke its three-day losing streak and edged higher around 1.0440 level.
However, the recovery in the Euro was driven by a weaker US dollar following the release of January’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data, which met expectations and alleviated concerns about unexpected inflation spikes in the United States. On the other hand, the Euro gained strength, supported by stronger-than-expected Eurozone inflation data.
Eurozone Inflation Data Supports EUR, But ECB's Easing Policy Limits Strength
On the data front, the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose 2.4% year-on-year (YoY) in February, a small decrease from January’s 2.5%. This was still a bit higher than the 2.3% that markets had expected. The core HICP, which excludes food and energy prices, increased by 2.6% YoY, matching market expectations but slightly down from 2.7% in January.
On a monthly basis, the HICP climbed by 0.5% in February, a bounce back from the 0.3% drop seen in January. Similarly, core HICP inflation grew 0.6% month-over-month, reversing January’s 0.9% decline. This increase in monthly inflation suggests that price pressures in the Eurozone are still present, even if overall inflation is cooling slightly.
However, the European Central Bank (ECB) has a target inflation rate of 2.0%, and this inflation data could impact future decisions on interest rates. Although the inflation numbers were higher than expected, the ECB is still likely to continue its policy of easing in its upcoming meeting.
US Dollar Weakens Despite Rising Yields and Trade Tensions, Boosting EUR/USD Outlook
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has weakened after three consecutive days of gains, trading around 107.30 on the US Dollar Index (DXY).
However, the downside for the Greenback could be limited as US Treasury yields are improving, with the 2-year yield at 4.02% and the 10-year yield at 4.24%. These rising yields suggest that the USD could still find support in the near term.
On the data front, the release of the January Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report provided a boost to the EUR/USD pair.
The data came in line with expectations, easing concerns over unexpected inflation spikes in the US. The headline PCE remained steady at 0.3% month-over-month, while the core PCE rose slightly to 0.3%, up from 0.2% in December.
On an annual basis, the headline PCE was 2.6%, just above forecasts, but unchanged from December's reading. Overall, the report helped ease inflation worries, which in turn supported the EUR/USD recovery.
Looking forward, the rising US-China trade tensions could offer support to the USD, as investors often turn to the Greenback during times of uncertainty.
US President Trump announced new tariffs on Chinese imports, starting this Tuesday, and also mentioned 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico set to take effect on March 4. This could cap EUR/USD gains as the USD strengthens due to safe-haven flows amid escalating trade tensions. (edited)
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.04126, showing minor losses as the dollar holds firm amid economic uncertainty. The pair remains below the pivot point at $1.03963, signaling a neutral to slightly bullish bias in the short term.
Immediate resistance is seen at $1.04518, followed by $1.04837 and $1.05279. A break above $1.04518 could strengthen bullish momentum, with traders eyeing the 50-day EMA at $1.04552 as a key level for further gains. However, failure to clear this resistance may trigger renewed selling pressure.
On the downside, immediate support is at $1.03451, with stronger levels at $1.03163 and $1.02824. If the pair falls below $1.03451, sellers could push the price lower, testing the $1.03163 level, which aligns with previous market structure.
Technically, the 50-day EMA at $1.04552 remains a critical barrier for the bulls. A buy entry above $1.03958 could target $1.04523, with a stop-loss at $1.03575 to manage downside risks. A breakout above $1.04518 would strengthen the case for further gains, while a move below $1.03451 could accelerate selling pressure.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis – Feb 28, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the early European session on Friday, EUR/USD remained under selling pressure, trading near 1.0390. Despite upbeat German Retail Sales data, the Euro failed to gain support and weakened against the US Dollar.
However, the pair’s decline was mainly driven by a stronger US dollar and ongoing risk-off sentiment in the market.
Stronger US Dollar and Risk-Off Market Sentiment Weigh on EUR/USD
On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar remains strong amid growing concerns over global trade tensions and previously released upbeat US data.
However, Former US President Donald Trump announced on Thursday that 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico will take effect on March 4. In the meantime, the goods from China will face an additional 10% tariff.
This aggressive stance on tariffs has fueled uncertainty, putting downward pressure on risk-sensitive currencies like the Euro.
On the flip side, the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on interest rates supports the Greenback. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic have both indicated that the US central bank is likely to keep rates on hold for now.
Investors are closely watching the upcoming US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index report, which could impact Fed policy expectations. Currently, markets anticipate a 68% chance of a rate cut in June, but uncertainty remains high.
EUR Struggles Despite Strong German Retail Sales Amid US Tariff Threats and Fed Caution
On the economic data front, Germany’s Retail Sales data showed a 0.2% month-on-month (MoM) rebound in January, beating the market expectation of 0%. On an annual basis, sales increased by 2.9%, up from 1.8% in December.
However, this positive data failed to provide support for the Euro, as broader market sentiment and USD strength overshadowed the upbeat figures.
Meanwhile, the European economy remains vulnerable amid concerns over US-EU trade relations. Trump’s recent comments about imposing a 25% tariff on European goods add to the pressure on the shared currency.
Therefore, the ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and risk-averse mood in financial markets are limiting the Euro’s possibility for recovery against the USD.
Investors now turn their attention to the US PCE inflation data set to be released later on Friday. Any signs of cooling inflation could weaken the USD, providing some relief for EUR/USD.
However, if inflation remains stubbornly high, it may reinforce the Fed’s cautious stance, keeping the Greenback strong.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is trading at $1.03842, down 0.02%, reflecting a cautious market sentiment as it hovers slightly above the Pivot Point at $1.03805.
The currency pair faces immediate resistance at $1.04063, followed by stronger barriers at $1.04223 and $1.04476. These resistance levels coincide with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.04681, suggesting continued selling pressure unless the pair breaks above this level.
On the downside, immediate support is observed at $1.03556, with further cushions at $1.03326 and $1.03099.
A break below $1.03556 could accelerate the bearish trend, pushing EUR/USD towards the lower support zones.
Conversely, a sustained move above $1.03805 could challenge the $1.04063 resistance level, potentially shifting momentum towards the bulls.
The technical setup indicates a bearish bias as long as EUR/USD trades below the 50 EMA and the Pivot Point. The 4-hour chart shows a descending trendline, reinforcing selling interest. If the price fails to reclaim the $1.03805 level, it is likely to face continued downward pressure.
For now, the recommended strategy is to Buy Above $1.03810, with a Take Profit at $1.04223 and a Stop Loss at $1.03553.
Traders should watch for price action around $1.03805, as a break above this level could invalidate the bearish outlook and trigger a short-term recovery.
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S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis – Feb 28, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Global market sentiment turned bearish as the S&P 500 tumbled more than 1% on Friday, closing at 5,860 after hitting an intra-day low of 5,858.
The sharp decline was fueled by concerns over corporate earnings, weak economic data, and escalating geopolitical uncertainties.
One of the biggest contributors to the market downturn was NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA), which fell 8.5% to close at $120.15.
Despite reporting strong fourth-quarter earnings that exceeded Wall Street expectations, investors reacted negatively to concerns over narrowing profit margins and rising production costs related to the company’s new Blackwell systems and chips.
Strong US Dollar and Economic Data Weigh on Markets
On the US front, the US Dollar Index (DXY) surged above 107.00 following the release of fourth-quarter GDP data, which showed an annualized growth rate of 2.3%. Although this matched initial estimates and market expectations, it signaled a slowdown from the 3.1% growth seen in Q3.
Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic reiterated that the Fed should maintain its current interest rate policy to keep inflation under control. This stance dampened hopes for an imminent rate cut, adding pressure to equity markets.
Meanwhile, the latest labor market data showed a significant increase in initial jobless claims for the week ending February 22, attributed to corporate layoffs and severe winter weather.
Furthermore, recent services PMI and Michigan consumer sentiment data suggested the economy might be slowing, reinforcing expectations that the Fed could cut interest rates in 2025, though no immediate changes are expected.
Therefore, the S&P 500 faced downward pressure as a strong US Dollar, hawkish Fed stance, and slowing economic indicators fueled investor concerns, reducing hopes for near-term rate cuts and weighing on equities.
Global Trade Tensions Rise Amid New Tariffs and Economic Measures
Apart from this, US President Donald Trump announced a series of new tariffs, including a 25% tariff on Mexican and Canadian goods and an additional 10% duty on Chinese imports. This move heightened concerns about global trade tensions.
Meanwhile, the White House issued an executive order aimed at cutting government costs, further influencing market sentiment.
In addition, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) injected CNY300 billion into the economy, maintaining interest rates at 2% to support economic stability. However, these measures did little to ease investor concerns over slowing global growth.
Moving ahead, the market participants now turn their attention to the upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
S&P 500 – Technical Analysis
S&P 500 is trading at 5861.56, down 0.01%, reflecting cautious market sentiment as it hovers below the Pivot Point at 5887.91. The index faces immediate resistance at 5962.87, followed by stronger barriers at 6043.48 and 6144.23.
These resistance levels coincide with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 6047.19, signaling continued selling pressure unless the index breaks above this level.
On the downside, immediate support is observed at 5773.29, with further cushions at 5715.01 and 5663.83. A break below 5773.29 could accelerate the bearish trend, pushing the S&P 500 towards lower support zones.
Conversely, a sustained move above 5887.91 could challenge the 5962.87 resistance level, potentially shifting momentum toward the bulls.
The technical setup indicates a bearish bias as long as the S&P 500 trades below the 50 EMA and the Pivot Point. The 4-hour chart shows a descending trendline, reinforcing selling interest. If the price fails to reclaim the 5887.91 level, it is likely to face continued downward pressure.
For now, the recommended strategy is to Sell Below 5887, with a Take Profit at 5774 and a Stop Loss at 5962. Traders should watch for price action around 5887.91, as a break above this level could invalidate the bearish outlook and trigger a short-term recovery.
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- GOLD Price Analysis – Feb 28, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – Feb 28, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold price (XAU/USD) prolonged its bearish rally and hit the intra-day low of $2,857 level. However, the losing trend was mainly triggered by the strengthening US dollar, which continued its recovery for the third consecutive day.
The dollar's rise came as traders expected the Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain its hawkish stance due to persistent inflation.
Despite the bearish momentum, traders remain cautious ahead of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index data.
This report will provide clues about the Fed’s future interest rate decisions, which could impact gold’s next move.
Meanwhile, concerns over former US President Donald Trump's tariff plans and broader economic uncertainty could still support gold as a safe-haven asset.
Gold Slips as Strong US Dollar and Inflation Concerns Weigh on Prices
On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar edged higher mainly due to rising inflation, which strengthens the case for the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates steady.
This move helped the US Dollar recover from a two-month low, weighing on gold prices and pushing them to a two-week low.
On the data front, the latest data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis showed that the economy grew at a 2.3% annualized pace in the final quarter of 2024, as expected. in the meantime, the GDP Price Index rose by 2.4%, which was higher than the previous estimate of 2.2%, signaling persistent inflation.
These developments, combined with concerns that US President Donald Trump's policies could fuel inflation, are supporting the US Dollar and dragging gold prices lower.
The Federal Reserve is also hesitant to cut interest rates because inflation remains high. This keeps the U.S. Dollar strong, making gold less attractive to investors since it does not offer interest.
Fed officials, including Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, have emphasized that controlling inflation is their priority and that rates may stay high for now.
Markets are now focused on the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, which will give new clues about inflation.
Gold Finds Support Amid Rising Trade Tensions and Geopolitical Risks
On the geopolitical front, the losses in gold could be short-lived as rising trade tensions may boost its safe-haven demand. U.S. President Donald Trump announced that his proposed 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods will take effect on Tuesday, along with an extra 10% duty on Chinese imports.
He justified these measures by citing the ongoing issue of deadly drugs, particularly fentanyl, entering the U.S. from these countries. This decision could escalate trade tensions, potentially disrupting global markets and increasing uncertainty, which often supports gold prices.
Meanwhile, the additional tariffs on China come just as the country prepares for its annual parliamentary meetings, where it will outline its economic plans for 2025. This puts pressure on Beijing to respond quickly with countermeasures.
Trump's tough stance signals growing tensions between the U.S. and its strategic rival, which could lead to further instability in global trade. If China retaliates, it could trigger market volatility, increasing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,864.54, showing a slight uptick of 0.04% but remains under pressure as it hovers below the Pivot Point at $2,868.01. The metal faces significant resistance at $2,889.16, followed by stronger barriers at $2,906.26 and $2,930.44.
These resistance levels align with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,913.75, reinforcing a bearish bias unless gold breaks above this level.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at $2,848.61, with deeper cushions at $2,831.24 and $2,815.11. A break below $2,848.61 could accelerate the bearish trend, pushing prices toward the lower support zones.
Conversely, a sustained move above $2,868.01 could challenge the $2,889.16 resistance level, potentially shifting momentum toward the bulls.
The technical setup indicates a bearish bias as long as gold remains below the 50 EMA and the Pivot Point. The daily chart shows a descending trendline, further confirming selling pressure. Traders should watch for a potential breakdown below $2,848.61, which could trigger a more substantial sell-off.
For now, the recommended strategy is to Sell Below $2,867, with a Take Profit at $2,848 and a Stop Loss at $2,880. Monitoring price action near $2,868.01 will be crucial, as a break above this level could invalidate the bearish outlook.
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GOLD Price Analysis – Feb 27, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) failed to stop its downward trend and remains under selling pressure around the $2,880 mark, its lowest level in over a week.
However, the decline was driven by a stronger US Dollar (USD) and a positive risk tone in global markets, dampening demand for the safe-haven metal.
It should be noted that the global market mood remains upbeat amid the US government's efforts to boost economic efficiency.
Stronger US Dollar Pressures Gold, but Rate Cut Hopes Provide Support
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has been gaining traction amid modest uptick in US Treasury bond yields. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, continues to gain traction, extending its gains to near 106.50.
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic stated that current interest rate levels are still putting downward pressure on inflation, suggesting that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut rates aggressively. This keeps the US dollar strong, which in turn puts pressure on gold prices.
On the other hand, the ongoing concerns about a slowing US economy could lead the Fed to lower interest rates in the coming months, which limit gold’s downside as lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, making it more attractive to investors and providing some support to its price.
The Fed is widely anticipated to lower interest rates in the coming months as concerns over a cooling US economy persist
Strong US Economic Outlook and Trade Policies Weigh on Gold
The global market mood remains upbeat, contributing to gold’s downward trend. Investor confidence has improved due to the US government's efforts to boost economic growth, including discussions on potential tax cuts and measures to enhance economic efficiency. This has strengthened the US dollar and reduced demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
Further weighing on gold, U.S. officials have reinforced plans to restrict Chinese vehicle imports due to trade competition concerns.
Meanwhile, the White House has directed the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) to closely monitor Chinese investments in key sectors. These measures support the USD and risk sentiment, leaving gold vulnerable to further declines.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading at $2,896.48, down 0.03%, as it continues to struggle below the Pivot Point at $2,905.78. The yellow metal is facing selling pressure as it remains under the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,925.55, indicating a bearish bias in the short term.
The price action shows resistance at $2,924.64, with stronger barriers at $2,955.49 and $2,980.42. If gold manages to break above $2,905.78, it could trigger a short-term rally towards these resistance levels.
On the downside, immediate support is found at $2,877.24, with more substantial floors at $2,853.42 and $2,834.62. A break below $2,877.24 would reinforce the bearish outlook, likely leading to a test of the next support at $2,853.42.
Should prices continue to fall, the major support at $2,834.62 could act as a crucial level to watch for potential buyers stepping in.
The technical setup suggests a bearish trend as long as gold remains below the 50 EMA at $2,925.55. The 4-hour chart reveals lower highs and lower lows, reinforcing the downward momentum.
The Pivot Point at $2,905.78 is a critical level; a break above this could invalidate the bearish scenario, leading to a potential reversal towards $2,924.64. Conversely, a break below $2,877.24 would solidify the bearish trend, aiming for $2,853.42.
For traders, the strategy remains to Sell Below $2,905 with a Take Profit at $2,877 and a Stop Loss at $2,924. Gold's short-term outlook remains bearish, but traders should be cautious around key levels for any breakout or reversal signals.
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- USD/JPY Price Analysis – Feb 27, 2025
USD/JPY Price Analysis – Feb 27, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the USD/JPY currency pair extended its upward momentum, remaining well bid around the 149.97 level.
This rise in the pair comes as the Japanese Yen remains under pressure, allowing the USD/JPY pair to maintain its position.
However, the combination of factors, including remarks from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda, US economic developments, and a risk-on market sentiment, has contributed to the yen's weakening and the USD/JPY's rise.
Bank of Japan’s Position and US Treasury Yields Weigh on the Yen
BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s recent comments have added to the bearish outlook for the Japanese yen. He mentioned that the central bank is ready to buy more government bonds if long-term interest rates rise too quickly, indicating that the BoJ wants to keep rates low.
This has put pressure on the yen, especially as the 10-year Japanese government bond yield dropped to its lowest since February 12, which boosted the USD/JPY.
Meanwhile, the US Treasury bond yield ticked up slightly, giving more strength to the US Dollar and leading to more people moving their money away from the low-yielding yen. This combination has supported the rising trend in USD/JPY.
Risk-On Sentiment and US Tariff Concerns
Apart from this, the positive risk sentiment in the market has also played a major role in the upward movement of USD/JPY. Despite ongoing trade tensions, including concerns about US President Donald Trump's potential tariffs on imports from the European Union and other countries, the broader market sentiment remains risk-on, supporting demand for higher-yielding currencies like the USD.
On the US front, Federal Reserve officials, including Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, have indicated that progress has been made on inflation, though concerns about the cooling economy continue.
Market participants have increased their expectations for rate cuts, despite the Fed's cautious stance, which has kept the USD on the defensive at times. Nonetheless, the USD remains resilient, supported by strong US economic fundamentals and higher yields.
Looking ahead, market participants are awaiting several key economic reports from Japan, including industrial production, retail sales, and Tokyo inflation data, which could provide further insights into the BoJ’s policy direction.
Besides this, the upcoming release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index could provide fresh impetus for USD/JPY and influence market sentiment.
USD/JPY – Technical Analysis
USD/JPY is trading at 149.343, up 0.01%, maintaining a bullish stance just below the Pivot Point at 149.656. The pair is showing resilience above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 149.489, indicating that buyers are still in control.
Immediate resistance is seen at 150.708, with stronger barriers at 151.483 and 152.318. A break above 149.656 could trigger bullish momentum, targeting these resistance levels.
On the downside, support is located at 149.551, with deeper cushions at 147.700 and 146.865. A dip below 149.551 could invite selling pressure, potentially leading to a retest of the support at 147.700.
If the price continues to decline, the major support at 146.865 could serve as a crucial area for buyers to defend.
The technical setup favors a bullish trend as long as USD/JPY stays above the 50 EMA at 149.489. The 4-hour chart reveals a pattern of higher lows, reflecting upward momentum.
The Pivot Point at 149.656 is a key level to watch; a break above this could solidify the bullish outlook, pushing the pair toward 150.708. Conversely, a decline below 149.551 would challenge the bullish bias, targeting 147.700.
For traders, the strategy is to Buy Above 149.893 with a Take Profit at 150.961 and a Stop Loss at 148.921.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis – Feb 27, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair failed to stop its bearish trend and remained under pressure around the 0.6285 level.
However, the declines were weighed down by disappointing economic data and a stronger US Dollar (USD). This marks the fifth consecutive day of losses for the Australian currency, following a series of disappointing economic data releases from Australia.
Weaker Australian Economic Data and Inflation Figures Weigh on AUD
On the data front, the Australian Private Capital Expenditure (CapEx) data for Q4 2024 revealed a contraction of 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, significantly below market expectations of a 0.8% increase. This unexpected decline follows a revised 1.6% growth in the previous quarter.
However, the weaker-than-anticipated business investment figures have raised concerns about the strength of the Australian economy, contributing to the bearish sentiment surrounding the AUD.
The decline in CapEx has added to worries about future economic growth, weighing on investor confidence and further pressuring the Australian dollar.
Moreover, Australia's monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January showed a 2.5% year-over-year increase, falling short of market expectations of a 2.6% rise, signaling weaker inflation momentum.
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser also expressed cautious optimism, stating that inflation may improve but emphasizing the need for concrete results, especially given the tightness in the Australian labor market, which continues to pose challenges to controlling inflation.
Therefore, the weaker-than-expected economic data and inflation figures have increased bearish sentiment around the AUD, contributing to downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair, potentially leading to further declines.
US Dollar Strengthens Amid Strong Economic Data and Geopolitical Risks
On the other side, the US Dollar remained bullish, buoyed by stronger-than-expected US economic data and geopolitical factors.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) strengthened, reaching near 106.50, as traders assessed the strength of the US economy and the prospects of continued Federal Reserve policy tightening.
Federal Reserve officials, including Raphael Bostic, have reiterated that interest rates should remain at current levels to continue exerting downward pressure on inflation.
Furthermore, US President Donald Trump’s statements regarding tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, coupled with tightening controls on chip exports to China, added fuel to concerns over a potential trade war.
These geopolitical risks boosted the demand for the US Dollar as a safe haven, further weighing on the AUD/USD currency pair.
PBOC Actions and US-China Trade Tensions Add to Pressure
Apart from this, the Australian Dollar also faced pressure from developments in China, Australia’s largest trading partner. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) took steps to support its banking sector by issuing special treasury bonds to strengthen the capital of state-owned banks.
Despite this action help stabilize China’s economy and potentially boost demand for Australian exports, the ongoing trade tensions between the US and China continue to heighten market uncertainty, which could still weigh on the AUD.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
AUD/USD is trading at $0.62940, down 0.01%, showing some hesitation below the Pivot Point at $0.62854. The pair is struggling to gain momentum as it remains under the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.63443, suggesting a bearish bias in the short term.
Immediate resistance is seen at $0.63271, with stronger hurdles at $0.63560 and $0.63921. A break above $0.62854 could trigger buying interest, pushing the pair towards these resistance levels.
On the downside, support is located at $0.62544, followed by more substantial floors at $0.62163 and $0.61848. A break below $0.62544 would reinforce the bearish outlook, likely leading to a test of the next support at $0.62163.
Should prices continue to fall, the key support at $0.61848 could act as a crucial area for potential buyers to step in.
The technical setup favors a bearish trend as long as AUD/USD trades below the 50 EMA at $0.63443. The 4-hour chart shows a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, highlighting the downward momentum.
The Pivot Point at $0.62854 is a critical level to watch; a break above this could invalidate the bearish bias, leading to a potential recovery towards $0.63271. Conversely, a drop below $0.62544 would confirm the bearish trend, targeting $0.62163.
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GBP/USD Price Analysis – Feb 26, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the GBP/USD pair extended its losses and hovered near 1.2640 as the US Dollar strengthened.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) rebounded strongly from an 11-week low of 106.10, regaining momentum and exerting pressure on the British Pound.
Dovish BoE Comments Weigh on GBP
The British Pound faced selling pressure after dovish remarks from Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Swati Dhingra. Speaking at Birkbeck on Monday, Dhingra expressed concerns about "weakness in consumption" and advocated for aggressive monetary policy easing.
While markets have priced in two rate cuts by the BoE this year, Dhingra suggested that more than four cuts might be necessary to avoid an excessively restrictive stance.
Earlier this month, the BoE lowered borrowing rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.5% and guided a gradual easing approach.
However, the central bank also halved its GDP forecast for the year to 0.75% and warned of a potential temporary rise in inflation during Q3 due to higher energy costs.
The uncertain UK economic outlook, coupled with potential US tariffs from former President Donald Trump, further dampened investor confidence in the Pound.
US Dollar Strengthens on Rising Yields and Fiscal Developments
On the US front, the US dollar rebounded as US Treasury yields recovered from a five-day losing streak. The 10-year US Treasury yield climbed to 4.33% after hitting a fresh two-month low of 4.28% earlier in the Asian session.
The rise in yields was supported by the House of Representatives advancing a $4.5 trillion tax cut plan, which includes provisions for border security, energy deregulation, and increased military spending.
The injection of significant liquidity into the economy raised inflation concerns, prompting speculation that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates elevated for longer.
Meanwhile, weak US S&P Global PMI data for February heightened expectations of Fed rate cuts. The latest flash PMI report showed that the US service sector contracted for the first time in over two years.
As a result, traders increased their bets on a Fed rate cut in June, with the probability rising to 65% from 47% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool. However, markets remain convinced that the Fed will maintain its current borrowing rate of 4.25%-4.50% through the March and May meetings.
Key Data Releases Ahead
Looking ahead, investors will closely watch the upcoming US Durable Goods Orders data on Thursday and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index report on Friday.
The PCE inflation data will be a crucial factor in shaping market expectations for the Fed’s monetary policy outlook, potentially influencing the GBP/USD pair's movement in the coming sessions.
GBP/USD – Technical Analysis
GBP/USD is trading at $1.26528, down 0.01%, reflecting a cautious sentiment as it hovers above the pivot point at $1.26211. The pair is trading slightly above the 50 EMA at $1.26219, signaling short-term bullish momentum.
If the price maintains its position above the pivot, the next target is immediate resistance at $1.26896. A break above this level could push prices towards $1.27569, with a further move towards $1.28233 if bullish momentum continues.
On the downside, if GBP/USD breaks below the pivot at $1.26211, it would shift sentiment to bearish, targeting immediate support at $1.25660.
A deeper decline could see the pair testing $1.25087, with a more substantial floor at $1.24528 if selling pressure intensifies. The 50 EMA at $1.26219 acts as dynamic support, and a break below this level would confirm a bearish reversal.
The technical outlook suggests a cautious buy above the pivot at $1.26218, targeting $1.27126 with a stop loss at $1.25869.
This setup aligns with the short-term bullish bias while maintaining a favorable risk-reward ratio. Traders should watch for volume confirmation and price action around the $1.26896 resistance to validate the bullish momentum.
Conversely, a break below $1.26211 would invalidate the bullish setup and shift sentiment to bearish, likely driving prices towards $1.25660 and beyond.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis – Feb 26, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
EUR/USD continues to face selling pressure above 1.0490 in Wednesday’s European session. However, the currency pair is falling due to a strong recovery in the US Dollar (USD).
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, rebounded sharply to near 106.50 after dipping to an 11-week low of 106.10 earlier in the day.
US Dollar Gains on Rising Treasury Yields and PCE Inflation Data
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar recovered due to the strong recovery in US bond yields, which had been declining for almost a month. The 10-year US Treasury yields surged to near 4.33% after hitting a fresh 13-week low of around 4.28% earlier in the day.
The House approved Donald Trump's $4.5 trillion tax cut plan, causing traders to sell US government bonds. They expect lower taxes to boost spending, leading to higher inflation.
This could force the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates high for longer, strengthening the US dollar and putting pressure on the EUR/USD pair.
Investors await the US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) data for January, scheduled for release on Friday, to gain fresh insights into inflation trends.
Meanwhile, the core PCE inflation data, the Fed’s preferred measure as it excludes volatile food and energy prices, is estimated to have slowed to 2.6% year-over-year from 2.8% in December. Softer inflation data could weigh on expectations that the Fed will delay rate cuts.
Euro Struggles Amid ECB Policy Outlook
On the other hand, the EUR/USD is under pressure as investors favor the US Dollar over the Euro (EUR). However, the shared currency is outperforming as traders shift focus to the upcoming European Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting next week.
It should be noted that the ECB is widely expected to cut its Deposit Facility rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.5%. Investors will closely monitor the ECB’s monetary policy guidance.
Several ECB officials have indicated that the central bank should continue reducing interest rates, given expectations that inflation will sustainably return to the 2% target.
Moreover, the Soft Eurozone Q4 Negotiated Wage Rate data, a key wage growth measure, has reinforced expectations of ECB rate cuts. On Tuesday, the ECB reported that the wage growth measure increased at a slower pace of 4.12%, compared to a 5.43% rise in the previous quarter.
However, ECB board member Isabel Schnabel criticized dovish bets, arguing that Eurozone economic weakness is “not due to overly high borrowing costs” but rather to “structural factors.” She suggested that the current 2.75% rate may no longer be restrictive for the eurozone economy.
Looking ahead, investors will monitor the German flash Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for February, set for release on Friday, for further cues on inflation and ECB policy direction.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is trading at $1.04972, down 0.01%, reflecting cautious sentiment as it hovers just above the pivot point at $1.04780. The pair is trading above the 50 EMA at $1.04709, signaling short-term bullish momentum.
If the price holds above this pivot, the next target is immediate resistance at $1.05290. A break above this level could push prices towards $1.05673, with a more ambitious move towards $1.06076 if buying pressure continues.
On the downside, if EUR/USD breaks below the pivot at $1.04780, it would shift sentiment to bearish, targeting immediate support at $1.04505.
A further decline could see the pair testing $1.04075, with a deeper drop towards $1.03556 if selling intensifies. The 50 EMA at $1.04709 acts as dynamic support, and a break below this level would confirm a bearish reversal.
The technical outlook suggests a cautious buy above the pivot at $1.04785, targeting $1.05475 with a stop loss at $1.04402.
This setup aligns with the short-term bullish bias while maintaining a favorable risk-reward ratio. Traders should watch for volume confirmation and price action around the $1.05290 resistance to validate the bullish momentum.
Conversely, a break below $1.04780 would invalidate the bullish setup and shift sentiment to bearish, likely driving prices towards $1.04505 and beyond.
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GOLD Price Analysis – Feb 26, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold price (XAU/USD) climbed to around $2,930 as investors turned to safe-haven assets amid increasing economic uncertainty in the US.
This is because Former President Donald Trump’s push for higher tariffs has raised fears of inflation, driving gold demand. On the flip side, the analysts warn that persistent inflation concerns may force the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep interest rates higher, limiting gold's upside.
Traders are closely monitoring key economic data, including the US New Home Sales report for January, which could provide insights into the housing market.
Moreover, the speeches from Fed officials Raphael Bostic and Thomas Barkin could signal future monetary policy shifts. On Friday, the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for January, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, is expected to influence gold price trends.
US Dollar Weakens Amid Trade Policies, Fed’s Cautious Stance, and Economic Uncertainty
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar faced mild bearish pressure due to evolving trade policies and economic concerns.
Notably, Trump confirmed that tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports would proceed as planned, despite both countries enhancing border security efforts ahead of the March 4 deadline.
Meanwhile, the weak US consumer confidence data added to the dollar’s woes, with February’s reading dropping from 105.3 to 98.3, marking the steepest decline since August 2021.
Thus, the declining consumer confidence indicates increased economic caution among Americans, further supporting gold’s safe-haven appeal.
On the other hand, the global market sentiment remains sluggish as the Fed maintains a cautious stance on monetary policy.
Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin highlighted a "wait-and-see" approach, signaling that interest rate cuts are unlikely until inflation is firmly under control.
Whereas, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan suggested the Fed might shift towards shorter-term securities in its bond-buying strategy, potentially impacting Treasury yields and gold prices.
Hence, the ongoing trade tensions, inflation worries, and economic uncertainties also keeping the gold in demand.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,911.71, down 0.01%, reflecting cautious sentiment as it hovers below the pivot point at $2,925.36. The price is also trading under the 50 EMA at $2,925.93, reinforcing short-term bearish momentum.
If the price remains below this pivot, the next target is immediate support at $2,888.73, with a deeper decline towards $2,864.18. A further drop could test $2,834.62, signaling a continuation of the bearish trend.
On the upside, a break above the pivot at $2,925.36 would shift sentiment to bullish, targeting immediate resistance at $2,955.49.
A stronger breakout could push prices towards $2,980.42, with an extended rally reaching $3,005.91 if buying momentum sustains. However, given the current bearish bias and downward pressure from the 50 EMA, the path of least resistance remains to the downside.
The technical outlook suggests a cautious sell below the pivot of $2,925, with an entry targeting $2,888 and a stop loss at $2,947. This setup offers a favorable risk-reward ratio, aligning with the short-term bearish sentiment.
Traders should watch for volume confirmation and price action around the pivot point to validate the bearish momentum before committing to short positions.
Conversely, if the price breaks above $2,925.36 with significant buying volume, it would invalidate the bearish setup and open the path for a potential bullish reversal.
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