USD/CAD Price Analysis – Feb 25, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the USD/CAD pair struggles to maintain its recent gains and drifts lower after reaching the 1.4275-1.4280 region, marking a one-and-a-half-week high.
It is currently trading around the 1.4240 level, down nearly 0.15% for the day, amid renewed selling pressure on the US Dollar (USD).
The Greenback remains under pressure following weak US economic data, which has reinforced expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) this year.
Weaker US Economic Data Weighs on the USD
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar is struggling to recover despite an overnight rebound from its lowest level since December 10.
Recent data showed that US business activity contracted, with flash PMIs released last Friday indicating a decline to a 17-month low in February. This has fueled speculation that the Fed will adopt a more dovish stance, further pressuring the USD.
On the other hand, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) finds support from a recovery in Crude Oil prices, which had hit a fresh year-to-date low on Monday.
The commodity-linked CAD benefits from higher oil prices, as Canada is a major oil exporter. The recent bounce in oil prices has helped the Loonie gain strength, putting downward pressure on the USD/CAD pair.
Adding to the CAD’s strength, Canadian consumer inflation has shown a slight acceleration, reducing expectations of a rate cut by the Bank of Canada (BoC) at its upcoming policy meeting on March 12. This shift in market sentiment has further bolstered the Canadian currency.
Although, the CAD faces risks due to possible economic problems from Trump’s trade tariffs. On Monday, Trump confirmed that tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports will start on March 4, as planned, despite efforts to delay them. If these tariffs happen, they could hurt Canada’s economy and slow down the CAD’s growth.
Market Focus on US Economic Data and FOMC Speeches
Moving ahead, Traders now turn their attention to the upcoming US economic reports, including the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index and the Richmond Manufacturing Index.
In the meantime, the speeches from key Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members could provide further insights into the Fed’s monetary policy direction. Any dovish remarks may extend USD weakness, while a more hawkish stance could help the Greenback recover some ground.
USD/CAD – Technical Analysis
USD/CAD is trading at $1.42491, showing no significant change for the session as traders remain cautious ahead of key economic data.
The pair is currently hovering below the pivotal level of $1.42817, which serves as a critical threshold for short-term market sentiment.
A sustained move below this pivot keeps the bearish outlook intact, with immediate support at $1.42084. If bearish momentum strengthens, the next support is at $1.41515, followed by a deeper safety net at $1.40999.
On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at $1.43425. A break above this level could trigger a rally towards $1.43805, with the next target at $1.44416 if bullish momentum accelerates.
The 50 EMA is positioned at $1.42076, acting as dynamic support. The pair’s ability to stay above this moving average indicates underlying bullish pressure despite short-term hesitation.
The technical outlook suggests a cautious sell below the pivot point of $1.42820, with an entry at this level targeting $1.42085 and a stop loss at $1.43354.
This setup offers a favorable risk-reward ratio, aligning with the current bearish bias. However, traders should look for volume confirmation to validate the downward momentum before committing to short positions.
Conversely, a break above $1.42817 would flip the sentiment to bullish, potentially driving prices towards $1.43425 and beyond.
Given the market's sensitivity to economic indicators and geopolitical tensions, volatility is likely to persist. Traders should remain vigilant for any macroeconomic surprises that could impact USD/CAD’s trajectory.
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- GOLD Price Analysis – Feb 25, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – Feb 25, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold price (XAU/USD) extended its downward trend, struggling to gain momentum and hovering around the $2,935 level after hitting an intra-day low of $2,929. The decline is driven by a strengthening US Dollar (USD), which rebounded from its lowest level since December 10.
Although, gold continues to attract demand as a safe-haven asset amid ongoing economic uncertainty, particularly concerns over former President Trump's tariff plans. Furthermore, expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year help limit deeper losses in gold prices.
Stronger US Dollar and Mixed Economic Data Weigh on Gold Prices
On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar gained traction as the US Dollar Index (DXY) rebounded near 106.57. However, the greenback strengthened after Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee stated that the central bank needs more clarity before considering interest rate cuts.
Meanwhile, former President Trump signed a memorandum instructing US authorities to restrict Chinese investments in key sectors, aiming to protect national security while still encouraging foreign investment. These developments boosted the USD, putting pressure on gold prices.
On the data front, the US Composite PMI dropped to 50.4 in February from 52.7, signaling slower economic activity. In the meantime, the Services PMI fell to 49.7, missing expectations, while Manufacturing PMI improved slightly to 51.6.
Moreover, US Initial Jobless Claims rose to 219,000, exceeding forecasts, but Continuing Jobless Claims remained close to expectations. The weaker services sector and rising jobless claims fuel speculation of future Fed rate cuts, which helps limit gold’s losses.
US Sanctions on Iran and Ukraine Peace Hopes Impact Gold Prices
On the geopolitical front, the US imposed new sanctions on over 30 brokers, tanker operators, and shipping companies involved in selling and transporting Iranian oil.
This marks the second round of sanctions as the US aims to cut Iran’s crude exports to zero, preventing the country from developing nuclear weapons. The stricter sanctions add to global economic uncertainty, which often boosts demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
At the same time, investors are closely watching developments in the Ukraine conflict as hopes for a peace deal are rising after French President Emmanuel Macron stated that a truce between Ukraine and Russia could be possible in the coming weeks.
He discussed this with former President Trump at the White House on the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion. If peace talks progress, sanctions on Russia may ease, potentially increasing its oil exports.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold prices are showing cautious sentiment, trading at $2,939.55, down 0.02% for the session. The precious metal is currently hovering just above the pivotal level of $2,934.63, a critical threshold that could determine its next move.
Holding above this pivot keeps bullish hopes alive, with immediate resistance at $2,955.49. A break above this level could push prices towards $2,970.91, with the next target at $2,985.30 if bullish momentum sustains.
On the downside, immediate support is at $2,921.42, followed by a more substantial floor at $2,907.22. If bearish pressure intensifies, the next key support level lies at $2,892.63. The 50 EMA sits at $2,938.23, acting as a dynamic support, indicating short-term indecision amidst a broader bullish trend.
The technical outlook suggests a cautious buy above the pivot of $2,934. An entry at this level with a target of $2,955 and a stop loss at $2,925 offers a favorable risk-reward ratio. Traders should watch for volume confirmation and any potential breakout above the resistance to gauge momentum strength.
However, a break below the pivot would shift the sentiment to bearish, likely triggering a move towards the immediate support at $2,921.42.
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- AUD/USD Price Analysis – Feb 25, 2025
AUD/USD Price Analysis – Feb 25, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair struggled to maintain its upward momentum and reversed direction around the 0.6340 level, hitting an intra-day low of 0.6334 level.
However, the initial weakness in the US Dollar failed to sustain, as the dollar later recovered, contributing to the bearish move in the AUD/USD pair.
Investors are closely awaiting Australia's monthly inflation report, scheduled for release on Wednesday, which is expected to provide critical insights into the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) future monetary policy.
This comes after the RBA’s recent hawkish rate cut, making the report even more significant for market participants.
On the other hand, the AUD/USD pair faces further challenges due to rising risk sentiment, particularly after US President Donald Trump’s comments on Monday regarding the imposition of sweeping tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico.
However, losses in the AUD/USD pair could be limited as Australia’s key trading partner, China, released its 2025 annual policy statement on Sunday.
AUD/USD Under Pressure Amid Inflation Data, China’s Economic Moves, and US Tariff Risks
On the AUD front, the Australia’s monthly inflation report due on Wednesday is attracting investor attention. The report is expected to provide important insights into the future of monetary policy, especially after the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) recent hawkish rate cut.
The data could give clues on whether the RBA will continue with its tightening measures or adjust its approach based on inflation trends.
Meanwhile, China, a key trading partner of Australia, is making moves in its economy. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) injected CNY300 billion into the financial system via the one-year Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), keeping the rate steady at 2%. In addition, they pumped CNY318.5 billion into the market through seven-day reverse repos at 1.50%.
On the other hand, the AUD/USD pair is facing some challenges due to rising risk sentiment. US President Donald Trump’s comments on Monday about moving forward with US tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico have added to the uncertainty.
The tariffs, set to kick in next week, could affect global markets. However, the AUD is getting some support from China’s efforts to boost its economy, with policies aimed at rural reform and revitalizing the property market.
USD Weakens Amid Fed Uncertainty, Mixed Economic Data, and US-China Tensions
On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar is gaining strength, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) climbing near 106.50. At the same time, US Treasury bond yields are also rising, with the 2-year yield at 4.14% and the 10-year yield at 4.37%.
Investors are closely watching the Federal Reserve’s next move, especially after Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Monday that the central bank needs more clarity before deciding on interest rate cuts. This cautious stance is supporting the USD, putting pressure on the AUD/USD pair.
On the data front, the US Composite PMI, which reflects overall economic activity, dropped to 50.4 in February from 52.7 in the previous month. The Services PMI declined to 49.7, falling short of expectations, while the Manufacturing PMI slightly improved to 51.6, beating forecasts.
Meanwhile, US jobless claims rose last week, with Initial Jobless Claims climbing to 219,000, higher than the expected 215,000. This suggests that the US job market is showing some weakness, which could weigh on the USD.
Furthermore, the former President Donald Trump signed a memorandum on Friday instructing US officials to limit Chinese investments in key industries. This move aims to protect national security but could escalate tensions between the US and China. Given China’s strong trade ties with Australia, any economic disruptions could impact the Australian Dollar.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
AUD/USD is trading at $0.63539, down 0.01%, reflecting cautious sentiment as the pair hovers near its pivot point of $0.63343.
This level is crucial as it acts as a tipping point between bullish and bearish momentum. Holding above the pivot keeps bullish hopes alive, with immediate resistance at $0.63716.
A breakout above this resistance could pave the way for gains towards $0.64057, followed by the next target at $0.64324 if bullish momentum sustains.
On the downside, immediate support lies at $0.63067, and a break below could trigger a decline towards $0.62703. If selling pressure intensifies, the next major support is at $0.62331, signaling potential for a deeper pullback.
The 50 EMA is currently at $0.63671, acting as dynamic resistance. The pair’s inability to close above this level indicates short-term bearishness amidst broader market uncertainty.
The technical outlook suggests a cautious buy above the pivot of $0.63343. An entry at this level, with a take profit at $0.63926 and a stop loss at $0.63058, offers a favorable risk-reward ratio.
However, traders should wait for confirmation in the form of volume spikes or candlestick patterns to validate the bullish bias.
Conversely, a break below $0.63343 would shift the sentiment to bearish, likely driving prices towards $0.63067 and potentially further to $0.62703.
The overall market sentiment remains mixed, influenced by global economic uncertainties and fluctuations in commodity prices.
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GBP/USD Price Analysis – Feb 24, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair gained strong upward momentum, reaching an intraday high of 1.2691 as the US Dollar weakened. The greenback’s decline gave the British Pound a boost, allowing it to extend its recent gains.
Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounds the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy outlook. Although markets expect a gradual rate-cutting cycle this year, stronger-than-expected economic data has cast doubt on those projections.
As a result, the Pound continues to find support, with investors weighing the possibility of a more cautious approach from the BoE. If economic data remains robust, policymakers may delay aggressive easing, potentially providing further strength to GBP/USD.
On the flip side, uncertainty around US economic performance and Federal Reserve policy will continue to influence the pair’s direction in the coming sessions. Traders will keep a close eye on upcoming UK and US data releases for fresh cues.
Bank of England's Rate-Cutting Outlook and Economic Data Impact on GBP/USD
On the GBP front, the Bank of England (BoE) is expected to follow a moderate rate-cutting cycle this year. However, recent UK economic data has made traders rethink their expectations.
Strong Retail Sales, hotter-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for January, and solid wage growth in the last three months of 2023 have led investors to reduce their bets on aggressive rate cuts.
Despite this, money markets still anticipate two more rate cuts this year after the BoE lowered its key interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.5% earlier this month.
Analysts at TD Securities, however, predict the BoE will cut rates four more times in 2024, citing risks such as potential trade tariffs if Donald Trump wins the U.S. election.
Yet, they have pushed their forecast for the next rate cut from March to May due to stronger-than-expected UK economic data. The uncertainty around monetary policy continues to impact the GBP/USD pair, as traders closely watch for signals from the central bank.
Looking ahead, speeches from BoE policymakers, including Clare Lombardelli, Swati Dhingra, and Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden on Monday, could provide fresh insights into the central bank’s stance.
US Dollar Weakens as Soft Services Data Fuels Fed Rate Cut Bets
On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar edged lower as weak services sector data raised expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in June.
This decline was mainly triggered by the US preliminary S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for February, which showed a significant slowdown in business activity.
The Composite PMI rose at a slower pace, increasing only to 50.4 from 52.7 in January, with services sector activity unexpectedly contracting. The Services PMI fell to 49.7, dipping below the 50 mark for the first time in 25 months.
Economists had expected services to expand slightly. The report pointed to political uncertainty, including concerns over federal spending cuts and their potential impact on growth and inflation, as key factors behind the slowdown.
In contrast, the Manufacturing PMI showed positive signs, expanding to 51.6 in February from 51.2 in January, exceeding expectations. This growth in the manufacturing sector is seen as a result of US President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda, which aimed to boost local production.
Looking ahead, investors will focus on key data this week, including US Durable Goods Orders and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which could provide further clues on the Fed’s next move.
GBP/USD – Technical Analysis
GBP/USD is trading at $1.26401, showing a slight upward movement, maintaining support above the pivot point at $1.26211. This level is crucial as it is reinforced by the 50 EMA at $1.26244, which is acting as dynamic support.
The technical outlook remains bullish as long as GBP/USD stays above this level. A break above the immediate resistance at $1.26896 could propel the pair toward the next resistance at $1.27569, with a potential extension to $1.28233.
On the downside, if prices fall below the pivot point, immediate support is at $1.25660, followed by $1.25087 and $1.24528. A break below the 50 EMA would signal a bearish reversal, increasing selling pressure. However, the overall outlook remains bullish as long as GBP/USD trades above $1.26211 and the 50 EMA.
Traders should watch for a decisive breakout above $1.26896 for a bullish continuation, while a drop below $1.26211 may indicate a bearish pullback.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis – Feb 24, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward trend and stayed strong around the 1.0471 level, reaching an intra-day high of 1.0528. This shows that the Euro was performing well earlier in the day, attracting buyers. However, as the session progressed, the pair lost some of its gains due to weakness in the Euro.
The Euro weakened following the German federal election results, where no single party secured a clear majority. This political uncertainty added pressure to the Euro, as it could slow down economic growth in Germany, which is the largest economy in the Eurozone. Investors became cautious, leading to a partial pullback in the EUR/USD pair.
Despite the Euro's weakness, the downside in the EUR/USD pair remained limited due to a weaker US Dollar. Investors overlooked disappointing US flash S&P Global PMI data for February, keeping the dollar under pressure. As a result, the EUR/USD pair maintained some of its earlier gains, preventing a sharper decline.
US Dollar Weakens on Soft PMI Data and Fed Rate Cut Bets, but Trade Risks Persist
On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar lost momentum as weak economic data raised expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts.
The latest S&P Global PMI report showed that private business activity in the US grew at a much slower pace in February.
The Composite PMI, which tracks both manufacturing and services, dropped to 50.4, the lowest level since September 2023. The decline was mainly driven by weaker services sector activity, which fell to 49.7 from 52.9 in January.
This drop was unexpected and was linked to political uncertainty over federal spending cuts and their potential impact on economic growth and inflation. However, the manufacturing sector performed better, with the Manufacturing PMI rising to 51.6, exceeding expectations.
The weak PMI data strengthened market bets that the Fed will cut interest rates in June, pushing the probability to 63.5% from 50% last week.
However, some support for the Dollar came from concerns over a global slowdown due to former US President Donald Trump's tariff threats. He has warned of imposing tariffs on products like lumber, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and automobiles, which could impact global trade.
Therefore, the weak US PMI data and rising Fed rate cut bets support the EUR/USD pair by weakening the Dollar. However, Trump's tariff threats limit gains, creating mixed sentiment and potential volatility in the pair.
EUR Weakens Amid German Election Uncertainty and ECB Rate Cut Signals
On the EUR front, the shared currency weakened following the German federal election, as no single party secured a clear majority. Friedrich Merz, leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), is set to become Germany’s Chancellor but faces tough negotiations to form a coalition government, likely with the Social Democratic Party (SPD).
Analysts at ING believe the new government may only bring short-term economic benefits, such as minor tax cuts and small reforms. Adding to the Euro's weakness, the European Central Bank (ECB) remains focused on policy easing.
ECB policymaker François Villeroy de Galhau recently stated that the central bank could cut its deposit rate to 2% by summer, reinforcing expectations of lower interest rates.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is trading at $1.04827, showing slight downward movement but maintaining support above the pivot point at $1.04553. This level is crucial as it aligns closely with the 50 EMA at $1.04518, providing a key support zone.
The technical outlook remains cautiously bullish above this level. If EUR/USD can break above the immediate resistance at $1.05290, it may target the next resistance at $1.05673, with a potential extension to $1.06076.
However, if prices fall below the pivot point, the first support is at $1.04075, followed by $1.03556 and $1.03157. A break below the 50 EMA could signal a bearish shift, increasing selling pressure. The overall outlook remains bullish as long as EUR/USD trades above $1.04553 and the 50 EMA, but a breakdown below these levels could signal a bearish reversal.
Traders should watch for a decisive breakout above $1.05290 for bullish continuation, while a drop below $1.04553 may indicate a bearish pullback.
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GOLD Price Analysis – Feb 24, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – Feb 24, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold price (XAU/USD) extended its upward rally and hit the intra-day high of $2,944. However, the reason for its upward trend could be linked to uncertainty around US trade tariffs under Donald Trump’s policies, which is making investors cautious about the global economy.
This, combined with a risk-off sentiment in the market, has pushed traders toward safe-haven assets like gold. Apart from this, ongoing geopolitical tensions and a weaker US dollar are further supporting the price of gold.
Despite these bullish factors, gold’s gains remain limited due to expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates high for longer. As a result, traders are holding back from making aggressive moves and are waiting for key US inflation data later this week.
Looking forward, the upcoming release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index on Friday will be crucial. This report is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure and will provide clearer signals about future interest rate decisions.
If inflation remains high, the Fed may delay rate cuts, which could slow down gold’s rally. On the other hand, weaker inflation data could weaken the US dollar and push gold prices higher in the near term.
Weak US Dollar and Fed Uncertainty Boost Gold’s Safe-Haven Appeal
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar is struggling, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) falling below 106.50. This weakness comes after disappointing US economic data, including higher-than-expected jobless claims and a drop in business activity.
The US Composite PMI slipped to 50.4 in February from 52.7 in January, while the Services PMI fell below expectations, signaling slowing economic momentum.
Meanwhile, jobless claims rose to 219,000, showing signs of a weaker labor market. These factors have put pressure on the USD, making gold more attractive as an alternative investment.
At the same time, the Federal Reserve remains cautious about cutting interest rates. Fed Governor Adriana Kugler stated that inflation is still not close to the 2% target, and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem warned of stagflation risks.
However, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic left the door open for two possible rate cuts this year, depending on economic data. The uncertainty surrounding future rate decisions keeps gold traders on edge, as lower rates would boost gold prices by making the non-yielding metal more appealing.
Apart from this, former President Trump hinted at a new trade deal with China but also mentioned possible 25% tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors starting in April. These trade tensions and global economic concerns continue to support gold as a safe-haven asset.
Traders are now looking ahead to the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index on Friday, which will provide further clues on inflation and the Fed’s next moves, ultimately shaping gold’s direction in the coming days.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,943.72, maintaining a cautiously bullish stance above the pivot point at $2,925.94. This level serves as a critical support zone, reinforcing the upward trend.
If gold manages to break above the immediate resistance at $2,955.49, it could target the next resistance at $2,978.00, with a potential extension to $3,001.64. The bullish sentiment is supported by the price holding above the 50 EMA at $2,920.06, indicating continued buying interest.
Conversely, a break below the pivot point could expose immediate support at $2,904.96, followed by deeper support at $2,878.08 and $2,849.43. The overall technical outlook remains bullish as long as prices stay above $2,925.94 and the 50 EMA.
Traders should watch for a decisive breakout above $2,955.49 to confirm the bullish continuation, while a drop below $2,925.94 may signal a bearish pullback.
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S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis – Feb 21, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the latest trading session, the S&P 500 (SPX) Index struggled to halt its bearish trend, remaining under pressure around the 6,117 level and hitting an intra-day low of 6,084. The downward momentum was driven by cautious investor sentiment amid economic uncertainties and shifting Federal Reserve expectations.
Stronger US Dollar and Fed’s Cautious Stance Keep S&P 500 Under Pressure
On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar remained strong, with the Dollar Index (DXY) hovering around 106.50, despite higher-than-expected jobless claims rising to 219,000.
However, weak economic data usually pressures a currency, the USD gained support as investors sought safety amid uncertainty. Moreover, Federal Reserve officials maintained a cautious stance on inflation, signaling that interest rates may stay higher for longer, which further boosted the greenback.
St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem also raised concerns about stagflation risks, while Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic suggested that rate cuts remain possible this year, depending on upcoming economic data.
Meanwhile, the recent FOMC meeting minutes revealed the Fed's cautious approach, reinforcing expectations that interest rate reductions may be delayed. As a result, the S&P 500 faced selling pressure, as higher interest rate concerns dampened investor sentiment.
Impact of S&P Global PMI Data on the US Dollar and Equities
Moving ahead, the latest S&P Global PMI data for February played a crucial role in market movements. Investors closely watched the preliminary US Manufacturing and Services PMIs, which offered insights into economic activity.
The Manufacturing PMI was expected to edge higher from 51.2 to 51.5, while the Services PMI was anticipated to rise from 52.9 to 53.0.
However, the stronger-than-expected services sector performance could provide some support to the US Dollar, adding pressure on equities, including the S&P 500. However, if the Services PMI unexpectedly dips below 50, signaling economic contraction, the market could witness a shift in sentiment.
Apart from this, concerns about rising input costs in the service sector and a resilient labor market could reinforce expectations of a “higher for longer” Federal Reserve stance, further limiting the upside for stocks.
Geopolitical Tensions and Trade Uncertainty Weigh on Market Sentiment
Apart from economic data, geopolitical factors also played a role in the S&P 500’s decline. The global trade environment remains uncertain, with potential tariff policies adding pressure on financial markets.
Former US President Donald Trump confirmed a 25% tariff on pharmaceutical and semiconductor imports starting in April, alongside continued auto tariffs. These developments fueled concerns about trade tensions, leading to increased market volatility.
Despite the ongoing pressure, traders are closely monitoring upcoming economic releases and central bank commentary for further direction. If US economic indicators continue to show resilience, the S&P 500 may struggle to recover in the near term.
However, any signs of easing inflationary pressures or a shift in Fed policy expectations could provide temporary relief to the index.
S&P 500 – Technical Analysis
The S&P 500 (SPX) is trading at $6,117.51, slightly down by 0.01%, reflecting a cautious market sentiment. Despite the minor decline, the index remains above the key pivot point at $6,093.87, maintaining a bullish outlook as long as it holds above this level.
The pivot point is a crucial support zone, bolstered by the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $6,057.00, which is providing dynamic support.
If the S&P 500 continues to trade above the pivot point, it is likely to target the immediate resistance at $6,128.99.
Breaking above this resistance could fuel further bullish momentum towards the next resistance levels at $6,171.70 and $6,219.27. These levels are significant as they mark potential breakout zones that could lead to new highs.
On the flip side, if the index falls below the pivot point at $6,093.87, it could encounter selling pressure, pushing it down to the immediate support at $6,049.53.
A break below this level would expose the next support zones at $6,008.89 and $5,969.55. These supports are critical in preventing a deeper correction and maintaining the long-term bullish trend.
From a strategic perspective, the recommended entry point is to buy above $6,094, targeting a take profit at $6,172 while setting a stop loss at $6,049 to manage downside risk. This approach aligns with the bullish sentiment supported by the upward trendline and the 50 EMA.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis – Feb 21, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During Friday’s European session, the EUR/USD currency pair slipped to the 1.0470 level, facing renewed selling pressure after the release of the latest Eurozone PMI data.
The Hamburg Commercial Bank's (HCOB) preliminary Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) report for February indicated that overall business activity in the Eurozone expanded at a slower-than-expected pace, weighing on the Euro.
In the meantime, the Composite PMI stood at 50.2, slightly below the anticipated 50.5 reading. While the services sector showed growth, its expansion pace was weaker than the previous release.
Meanwhile, the manufacturing sector continued to struggle, though the rate of contraction slowed. HCOB’s Chief Economist, Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, commented that economic output in the Eurozone remains stagnant, with sluggish manufacturing only marginally compensated by weak services growth.
Furthermore, the political uncertainties in France and concerns over US trade policies added to the Euro’s woes.
Apart from this, the European Central Bank (ECB) is unlikely to find comfort in the PMI data, as steady growth alone is insufficient to ease concerns about the region’s economic trajectory. Market participants have fully priced in three rate cuts from the ECB this year, following the central bank’s recent 25 basis point reduction in the Deposit Facility rate to 2.75%.
US Dollar Strength and Market Movers Impacting EUR/USD
On the other hand, the EUR/USD pair is also under pressure as the US Dollar (USD) regains momentum. The US Dollar Index (DXY) climbed from 106.30 to 106.65, erasing some of its earlier losses.
However, the losses in US dollar was driven by improved market sentiment as investors reassessed former US President Donald Trump’s trade policies.
While Trump had previously imposed tariffs on steel, aluminum, and Chinese imports, market participants believe his tariff strategy may not be as aggressive as initially feared.
Moreover, European Union trade chief Maros Sefcovic revealed that the US has shown some openness to negotiating tariff reductions. These developments have offered temporary relief to global trade partners, reducing the potential for economic disruptions.
Meanwhile, growing hopes for a Russia-Ukraine truce have also pressured the US Dollar, as Trump has signaled a willingness to engage in further negotiations to end the war, with potential sanctions relief for Russia in return.
On the monetary policy front, the Federal Reserve (Fed) remains cautious about inflation risks, particularly in light of Trump’s economic policies. Fed officials continue to maintain a restrictive stance, reinforcing the USD’s resilience.
Investors now await the release of the US S&P Global PMI data for February, due at 14:45 GMT, which could provide further direction for the EUR/USD pair.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is currently trading at $1.04959, showing minimal movement but maintaining a slightly bearish stance. The pair is hovering just above the key pivot point at $1.04663, which is a crucial support level to watch.
As long as prices stay above this pivot, a bullish reversal is possible, with immediate resistance at $1.05205.
A break above this resistance could propel the pair towards the next targets at $1.05563 and $1.05920, indicating potential upward momentum.
On the downside, if EUR/USD drops below the pivot point at $1.04663, bearish sentiment is likely to strengthen.
The first support to watch is at $1.04003, followed by $1.03565 and $1.03162, marking key retracement zones.
These levels could attract buying interest, but a break below them would confirm a bearish continuation.
The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.04305 is currently acting as dynamic support, reinforcing the potential for a bullish rebound. However, if the price falls below the 50 EMA, it could signal further downside risk.
The technical outlook suggests a strategic entry point to buy above $1.04663, targeting a take profit at $1.05434 and setting a stop loss at $1.04149 to manage risk effectively.
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GOLD Price Analysis – Feb 21, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) retreated from its all-time high of $2,954 reached on Thursday, dropping over 1% to trade around $2,925 at the time of writing on Friday.
Despite this pullback, the precious metal remains well above the $2,930 level, supported by a mix of economic data and geopolitical developments.
Gold came under pressure as economic data from the Eurozone indicated a slowdown in business activity. Reports from S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB) showed that the services sector contracted further in February.
France's preliminary Services PMI dropped to 44.5, falling short of the 48.9 estimate. Similar declines were observed in Germany and across the Eurozone, fueling concerns about economic weakness in the region.
Looking ahead, market attention shifts to the US preliminary S&P Global PMI for February, with the services sector expected to tick up slightly to 53.0 from 52.9 in January. Hence, the stronger-than-expected data could further impact gold prices by boosting the US Dollar.
Strong US Dollar and Fed’s Cautious Stance Keep Gold Under Pressure
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar remains strong near 106.50, keeping gold under pressure. The greenback gained support as US jobless claims rose to 219,000, exceeding expectations.
Meanwhile, Federal Reserve officials stayed cautious on inflation, with Governor Adriana Kugler stating that price stability still has "some way to go."
On the other hand, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem warned about stagflation risks, while Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said rate cuts are possible this year, depending on economic data.
The latest FOMC meeting minutes showed the Fed remains cautious, stressing the need for clear signs of lower inflation before cutting rates.
Therefore, the firm US Dollar and cautious Fed stance on inflation limit gold’s upside, as higher jobless claims and stagflation concerns add uncertainty, reducing gold’s appeal amid expectations of delayed rate cuts.
Geopolitical Tensions and Uncertainty Provide Support for Gold
On the geopolitical front, the ongoing trade tension in the global market also played a role in the gold’s movement. The Trump administration signaled possible sanctions relief for Russia in ongoing negotiations over the Ukraine conflict.
Besides, trade tensions resurfaced as President Trump confirmed a 25% tariff on pharmaceutical and semiconductor imports starting in April, alongside existing auto tariffs. These developments have fueled uncertainty in global markets, providing underlying support for gold.
Despite the recent pullback, gold continues to find support from geopolitical risks and ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s policy path.
Traders will closely monitor upcoming economic data and central bank commentary for further direction. If US economic indicators show strength, gold may face additional pressure, but lingering inflation concerns and geopolitical uncertainties are likely to keep the metal well-supported above the $2,930 level.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,928.20, up 0.06% for the session, reflecting a cautiously bullish sentiment. The price is holding above the crucial pivot point at $2,916.73, which serves as a key support level, reinforcing the bullish bias.
As long as gold stays above this pivot, the upward trendline remains intact, suggesting further gains are likely.
The first resistance to watch is at $2,955.49, followed by $2,978.00 and the psychological level of $3,001.64. Breaking above these levels could open the door to new highs, driven by continued bullish momentum.
Conversely, if gold falls below the pivot point at $2,916.73, it may face selling pressure, with the first support at $2,892.98. A further decline could target $2,865.06 and $2,833.80, marking significant retracement levels.
The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,916.18 is acting as dynamic support, reinforcing the bullish sentiment.
From a technical perspective, maintaining positions above the pivot point favors buyers, while a break below this level could shift the sentiment to bearish.
The recommended entry point is to buy above $2,917, with a take profit at $2,955 and a stop loss at $2,896 to manage risk effectively.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis – Feb 20, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair extended its bullish rally and remained well-bid around the 0.6376 level, hitting an intra-day high of 0.6380.
The bullish momentum was supported by strong Australian employment data, which showed a rise in jobs, boosting confidence in the economy.
Moreover, China’s decision to keep its interest rates steady provided further support, as Australia’s economy is closely tied to China due to trade relations. These factors helped the Aussie Dollar hold its gains against the US Dollar.
However, the upside for AUD/USD was limited as market sentiment turned cautious. Investors grew concerned over fresh tariff threats from former US President Donald Trump, raising fears of potential trade tensions.
Meanwhile, the latest FOMC minutes from January’s meeting signaled a cautious approach from the Federal Reserve, with officials hesitant about cutting interest rates too soon. This strengthened the US Dollar and kept AUD/USD from rising further.
At the same time, the US Dollar Index (DXY) hovered around 107.00, reflecting the USD’s resilience. US Treasury yields also remained elevated, with the 2-year note at 4.26% and the 10-year note at 4.52%, signaling strong demand for US assets.
These factors created a challenging environment for AUD/USD, keeping gains in check despite initial strength.
Stronger US Dollar and Trade Tensions Limit AUD/USD Gains
On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar remained strong, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) hovering around 107.00.
This strength was supported by high US Treasury yields, with the 2-year note at 4.26% and the 10-year note at 4.52%.
The steady demand for US assets kept the USD firm, making it difficult for the AUD/USD pair to extend its gains.
On the data front, the latest Federal Reserve (FOMC) Meeting Minutes confirmed that interest rates would remain unchanged for now. Policymakers stressed the need to monitor inflation, job growth, and economic activity before making any rate cuts.
Several Fed officials, including Austan Goolsbee and Mary Daly, noted that while inflation has eased, it is still too high for immediate policy changes. This cautious stance strengthened the USD, limiting upward movement in AUD/USD.
Apart from this, former US President Donald Trump confirmed a 25% tariff on pharmaceutical and semiconductor imports starting in April, along with maintaining auto tariffs at the same rate.
This raised concerns about global trade tensions, weighing on market sentiment. As a result, the AUD struggled to gain momentum despite earlier support from positive domestic employment data and China’s stable interest rate decision.
AUD/USD Struggles Amid RBA Rate Cut and US Trade Concerns
On the AUD front, the release of domestic employment data helped the Australian Dollar hold its gains against the US Dollar. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported that the unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.1% in January from 4.0% in December, in line with expectations.
Meanwhile, employment increased by 44K jobs, higher than the forecast of 20K but lower than December’s revised 60K.
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser stated that the labor market remains strong and that the central bank is closely monitoring inflation before making any major policy changes.
However, the AUD/USD pair faced pressure after the RBA unexpectedly cut its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 4.10%, marking its first rate cut in four years.
RBA Governor Michele Bullock acknowledged the economic impact of high interest rates but warned that inflation remains a concern.
While markets expect further rate cuts, the RBA has not confirmed any future decisions, creating uncertainty for the AUD.
Furthermore, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) kept its Loan Prime Rates unchanged, providing limited support for the Aussie Dollar.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
AUD/USD is trading at $0.63623, down by 0.01%, reflecting a cautious market sentiment. The pair is currently holding above the key pivot point at $0.63343, indicating a potential rebound if support remains intact.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.63172 is acting as dynamic support, reinforcing a cautiously bullish outlook. Immediate resistance is located at $0.64057, with a breakout above this level paving the way towards $0.64324 and $0.64606.
A successful move above $0.64057 could trigger renewed buying interest, pushing prices higher in the short term.
On the downside, initial support lies at $0.63067, with further safety nets at $0.62703 and $0.62331. A break below $0.63343 would shift the momentum to bearish, potentially triggering selling pressure towards the lower support levels.
The current price action suggests consolidation within a tight range, with traders awaiting a decisive breakout for directional clarity.
From a technical perspective, the bullish case is supported by the ascending trendline and the 50-day EMA. However, a failure to maintain support above $0.63343 could expose the pair to a corrective pullback.
For now, AUD/USD remains cautiously bullish, but a close watch on key support and resistance levels is advisable.
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