AUD/USD Price Analysis – Feb 20, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair extended its bullish rally and remained well-bid around the 0.6376 level, hitting an intra-day high of 0.6380.
The bullish momentum was supported by strong Australian employment data, which showed a rise in jobs, boosting confidence in the economy.
Moreover, China’s decision to keep its interest rates steady provided further support, as Australia’s economy is closely tied to China due to trade relations. These factors helped the Aussie Dollar hold its gains against the US Dollar.
However, the upside for AUD/USD was limited as market sentiment turned cautious. Investors grew concerned over fresh tariff threats from former US President Donald Trump, raising fears of potential trade tensions.
Meanwhile, the latest FOMC minutes from January’s meeting signaled a cautious approach from the Federal Reserve, with officials hesitant about cutting interest rates too soon. This strengthened the US Dollar and kept AUD/USD from rising further.
At the same time, the US Dollar Index (DXY) hovered around 107.00, reflecting the USD’s resilience. US Treasury yields also remained elevated, with the 2-year note at 4.26% and the 10-year note at 4.52%, signaling strong demand for US assets.
These factors created a challenging environment for AUD/USD, keeping gains in check despite initial strength.
Stronger US Dollar and Trade Tensions Limit AUD/USD Gains
On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar remained strong, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) hovering around 107.00.
This strength was supported by high US Treasury yields, with the 2-year note at 4.26% and the 10-year note at 4.52%.
The steady demand for US assets kept the USD firm, making it difficult for the AUD/USD pair to extend its gains.
On the data front, the latest Federal Reserve (FOMC) Meeting Minutes confirmed that interest rates would remain unchanged for now. Policymakers stressed the need to monitor inflation, job growth, and economic activity before making any rate cuts.
Several Fed officials, including Austan Goolsbee and Mary Daly, noted that while inflation has eased, it is still too high for immediate policy changes. This cautious stance strengthened the USD, limiting upward movement in AUD/USD.
Apart from this, former US President Donald Trump confirmed a 25% tariff on pharmaceutical and semiconductor imports starting in April, along with maintaining auto tariffs at the same rate.
This raised concerns about global trade tensions, weighing on market sentiment. As a result, the AUD struggled to gain momentum despite earlier support from positive domestic employment data and China’s stable interest rate decision.
AUD/USD Struggles Amid RBA Rate Cut and US Trade Concerns
On the AUD front, the release of domestic employment data helped the Australian Dollar hold its gains against the US Dollar. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported that the unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.1% in January from 4.0% in December, in line with expectations.
Meanwhile, employment increased by 44K jobs, higher than the forecast of 20K but lower than December’s revised 60K.
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser stated that the labor market remains strong and that the central bank is closely monitoring inflation before making any major policy changes.
However, the AUD/USD pair faced pressure after the RBA unexpectedly cut its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 4.10%, marking its first rate cut in four years.
RBA Governor Michele Bullock acknowledged the economic impact of high interest rates but warned that inflation remains a concern.
While markets expect further rate cuts, the RBA has not confirmed any future decisions, creating uncertainty for the AUD.
Furthermore, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) kept its Loan Prime Rates unchanged, providing limited support for the Aussie Dollar.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
AUD/USD is trading at $0.63623, down by 0.01%, reflecting a cautious market sentiment. The pair is currently holding above the key pivot point at $0.63343, indicating a potential rebound if support remains intact.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.63172 is acting as dynamic support, reinforcing a cautiously bullish outlook. Immediate resistance is located at $0.64057, with a breakout above this level paving the way towards $0.64324 and $0.64606.
A successful move above $0.64057 could trigger renewed buying interest, pushing prices higher in the short term.
On the downside, initial support lies at $0.63067, with further safety nets at $0.62703 and $0.62331. A break below $0.63343 would shift the momentum to bearish, potentially triggering selling pressure towards the lower support levels.
The current price action suggests consolidation within a tight range, with traders awaiting a decisive breakout for directional clarity.
From a technical perspective, the bullish case is supported by the ascending trendline and the 50-day EMA. However, a failure to maintain support above $0.63343 could expose the pair to a corrective pullback.
For now, AUD/USD remains cautiously bullish, but a close watch on key support and resistance levels is advisable.
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USD/JPY Price Analysis – Feb 20, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European session on Thursday, the USD/JPY currency pair extended its downward trend, trading below the 150.20 level. However, the Japanese Yen (JPY) gained strength as expectations for further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) continued to rise.
This sentiment was reinforced by the surge in Japanese government bond (JGB) yields, which reached their highest levels in over a decade, narrowing the rate differential with other major economies and boosting demand for the Yen.
Apart from this, a wave of risk aversion swept through global markets following former US President Donald Trump's renewed tariff threats. This further supported the safe-haven JPY, leading to increased selling pressure on the USD/JPY pair.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) faced some weakness despite the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish stance, which could provide support to the pair in the near term.
BoJ Policy Outlook, Wage Growth, and US Trade Tensions Boost Yen Strength
On the Japanese economic front, BoJ board member Hajime Takata emphasized on Wednesday that Japan's real interest rates remain deeply negative.
He also suggested that the central bank may need to adjust its monetary policy further if economic forecasts hold, strengthening the case for additional rate hikes.
This follows Japan’s robust Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data released earlier in the week, reinforcing expectations of BoJ tightening.
However, the Reuters poll indicated that over 65% of economists anticipate the BoJ raising its key interest rate to 0.75% in the third quarter. Besides, labor negotiations are expected to result in a wage increase of 5.00%, up from the previous forecast of 4.75%.
The yield on Japan’s benchmark 10-year JGB surged to its highest level since November 2009, further bolstering the Yen’s strength.
At the same time, US trade policy developments also played a key role in influencing market sentiment. Trump’s statement on Wednesday about imposing new tariffs next month or sooner raised fears of a global trade war, driving investors toward safe-haven assets such as the JPY.
In response, Japan's Trade Minister Yoji Muto is reportedly planning a visit to the US in March to seek exemptions from potential tariffs on steel and automobiles.
Fed Caution on Rate Cuts Keeps USD Under Pressure
From the US perspective, the Federal Reserve’s January FOMC meeting minutes released on Wednesday showed policymakers expressing caution about future rate cuts.
Fed Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson highlighted the resilience of the US economy, strong labor market conditions, and persistent inflationary pressures.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee echoed these sentiments, stating that while inflation has eased, it remains too high for the Fed to consider immediate rate cuts.
Looking ahead, market participants will closely monitor upcoming US economic data, including Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, as well as speeches from key Fed officials.
These factors will likely influence the USD/JPY pair’s next moves, though for now, the Yen remains in control amid growing expectations of BoJ tightening and global risk-off sentiment.
USD/JPY – Technical Analysis
USD/JPY is trading at 150.382, down by 0.02%, reflecting a cautious bearish sentiment. The pair is currently trading below the pivotal level of 151.024, signaling potential downward pressure. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 152.34 is acting as dynamic resistance, reinforcing the bearish outlook.
Immediate resistance is located at 152.329, followed by 153.242 and 154.684. A breakout above 152.329 would invalidate the bearish scenario, paving the way for a bullish reversal towards higher resistance levels.
On the downside, initial support lies at 149.621, with further safety nets at 148.650 and 147.760. A break below 149.621 would confirm bearish momentum, potentially accelerating selling pressure towards the lower support zones. The current price action suggests a consolidation phase, with traders awaiting a decisive breakout for directional clarity.
From a technical perspective, the bearish case is supported by the descending trendline and the 50-day EMA acting as a resistance barrier. However, a reversal above 151.024 would shift the momentum to bullish, invalidating the short-term bearish outlook.
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GBP/USD Price Analysis – Feb 19, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair failed to gain much traction and remained sluggish around the 1.2607 level. However, the possible reason for this slow movement could be the uncertainty surrounding the UK economy, as traders awaited key inflation data.
Investors were cautious, trying to gauge whether the Bank of England (BoE) might adjust its interest rate policy based on new economic signals.
On the data front, the latest UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for January brought some surprises. Following this data, the British Pound found some strength against major currencies.
However, the rise in inflation often leads traders to speculate that the BoE might keep interest rates higher for longer to control price increases. As a result, GBP saw some support, even though overall market conditions remained cautious.
GBP/USD Reacts to Higher-Than-Expected UK Inflation Data Amid BoE Caution
On the GBP front, the release of the United Kingdom's (UK) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for January showed higher-than-expected inflation, which provided some support to the GBP/USD currency pair. The annual headline CPI rose by 3%, beating the 2.8% forecast and up from 2.5% in December.
The core CPI, which excludes volatile items like food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco, also showed solid growth at 3.7%, matching expectations but improving from 3.2% previously. However, on a monthly basis, inflation eased slightly by 0.1%, a slower decline than anticipated.
Despite the positive inflation data, the Bank of England (BoE) remains cautious. The services sector, a key focus for the BoE, saw inflation rise to 5% from 4.4% in December, signaling persistent price pressures. However, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey downplayed concerns, suggesting that the rise in inflation might not last.
He believes that a sluggish economy could help control inflation and reiterated that while energy prices could push inflation higher in the short term, a gradual cooling of prices is still expected.
Looking ahead, investors are keeping an eye on the upcoming UK Retail Sales data for January and the preliminary S&P Global/CIPS Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for February, which are due on Friday.
These reports could provide fresh clues on the UK's economic health and potentially influence the direction of the GBP/USD currency pair.
GBP/USD Rises as US Dollar Weakens Ahead of Fed Minutes
On the other hand, the losses in the GBP/USD currency pair could be short-lived as the US Dollar lost traction and edged lower amid investor caution ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) meeting minutes.
Traders await clues on how long the Fed will keep interest rates steady at 4.25%-4.50%. The Fed paused its rate cuts in January after reducing rates by a total of 100 basis points in 2024, with Chair Jerome Powell emphasizing that further adjustments would depend on inflation progress and labor market conditions.
At the same time, San Francisco Fed Bank President Mary Daly supported keeping monetary policy “restrictive” until inflation continues to slow. Investors remain focused on the FOMC minutes, set to be released at 19:00 GMT, for any signs of future rate changes.
The Fed's cautious stance has kept the US Dollar under pressure, allowing the Pound to gain strength. However, any unexpected hawkish signals in the minutes could boost the US Dollar, potentially limiting GBP/USD gains.
GBP/USD – Technical Analysis
The GBP/USD pair is trading at $1.26222, dipping -0.01%, as markets remain cautious amid shifting sentiment around the U.S. dollar.
The pair is hovering just above its pivot point at $1.25906, which serves as a crucial level—holding above this keeps the short-term bullish case intact, while a break lower could shift momentum back in favor of sellers.
On the upside, immediate resistance stands at $1.26667, and a breakout above this level could push the pair toward $1.27128, with an extended move targeting $1.27569 if bullish momentum builds.
However, if the pound fails to sustain its footing, support at $1.25209 could be tested. A breach below this level would expose the next downside targets at $1.24528 and $1.23883, where buyers may look to re-enter.
From a technical perspective, the 50-EMA at $1.24963 remains below the current price, reinforcing near-term bullish sentiment.
The overall trend, however, is delicate, with traders closely watching whether the pound can hold above the pivot zone. The broader picture suggests that while buyers have an edge, a failure to clear resistance levels could invite renewed selling pressure.
For traders, a buy entry above $1.25899 appears favorable, with a take-profit target at $1.26677, while a stop loss at $1.25537 helps mitigate downside risk.
The pound’s next directional move hinges on its ability to sustain above $1.25906, as a failure to do so may trigger increased volatility.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis – Feb 19, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair failed to maintain its bullish rally and turned bearish around the 1.0421 level, hitting an intra-day low of 1.0419.
The downward trend was mainly due to the strengthening US Dollar, which initially gained support from investor confidence that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates high for a longer period.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the dollar's value against major currencies, recovered to 107.10 on Tuesday before dropping again to around 106.90 on Wednesday.
Despite some positive momentum for the US Dollar, its strength faded as it struggled to extend its recovery. Investors are now convinced that the Fed will not cut interest rates anytime soon, reinforcing expectations that rates will remain steady at 4.25%-4.50% through the March, May, and June meetings.
This cautious stance by the Fed has created mixed signals in the market, leading to fluctuations in the EUR/USD pair.
As a result, the EUR/USD pair managed to recover slightly, ticking higher near the 1.0460 level. The overall market sentiment remains uncertain, with traders closely watching economic data and Fed statements for further direction. While the US Dollar still holds a strong position, its inability to sustain gains has allowed the euro to regain some ground.
ECB's Rate Cut Expectations Weigh on Euro, Limiting EUR/USD Gains
On the European front, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to cut interest rates three times this year as some policymakers see inflation falling below the 2% target.
Recently, the ECB reduced its Deposit Facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.75% but did not commit to any fixed monetary easing path. This uncertainty has kept the Euro’s strength in check, balancing out the gains against the struggling US dollar.
Therefore, the ECB’s expected rate cuts weaken the Euro by reducing its appeal to investors. This limits EUR/USD gains, balancing the pair as the US dollar also struggles due to Fed’s steady rate outlook.
Fed's Cautious Stance Limits USD Strength, Supporting EUR/USD
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has been under pressure, allowing the EUR/USD pair to gain slightly. Despite this, investors remain confident that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates steady in the 4.25%-4.50% range for longer.
The CME FedWatch tool suggests no rate changes are expected in the Fed's March, May, and June meetings. This cautious approach from the Fed has limited the dollar’s strength, preventing it from making a solid recovery.
Apart from this, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly stated at a banking conference that monetary policy needs to stay “restrictive” until inflation shows further signs of improvement. She emphasized being cautious before making any policy adjustments, especially with the labor market and economy still strong.
Daly also commented on the uncertainty around President Trump’s economic policies, stating that their impact on growth, labor supply, and inflation will only be clear once more details emerge.
Investors are now waiting for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes from the January meeting, scheduled for release at 19:00 GMT, to gain further insights into the Fed’s stance.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.04566, posting a modest gain of +0.01% as traders assess the dollar’s next move amid shifting macroeconomic conditions.
The pivot point at $1.04551 is the key inflection level—holding above this keeps the short-term bullish case intact, while a sustained drop below could invite further weakness.
On the upside, immediate resistance stands at $1.05205, with a break above potentially paving the way toward $1.05563 and further extension toward $1.05920 if bullish momentum strengthens.
On the downside, support at $1.03922 serves as the first line of defense; if breached, it could accelerate selling pressure toward $1.03321, with $1.02854 acting as a deeper floor.
Technical indicators show a mixed picture. The 50-EMA at $1.04033 is trending slightly below price action, reinforcing a near-term bullish tilt.
However, the broader trend remains fragile, with the euro still struggling to decisively break resistance zones. A failure to maintain above the pivot point could see renewed pressure on the pair, especially if the dollar gains strength.
For traders, a buy entry above $1.04405 offers an opportunity, with a take-profit target at $1.05199 while keeping a stop loss at $1.04023 to manage downside risk.
The euro’s next move hinges on whether it can maintain support and challenge resistance levels. Short-term upside remains intact, but a break below $1.04551 could shift momentum back in favor of the bears.
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GOLD Price Analysis – Feb 19, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold price (XAU/USD) regained its bullish trend and edged higher around the 2,943 level. The main reason for this upward movement is the market's cautious approach ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes, which could give hints about the Federal Reserve's interest rate plans.
Investors are hesitant, waiting for more clarity on whether the Fed will cut rates, which directly impacts the US Dollar (USD). Hence, the weaker USD generally boosts gold prices since it becomes cheaper for buyers using other currencies.
Meanwhile, expectations of further rate cuts are keeping the USD under pressure, supporting gold’s safe-haven appeal.
Moreover, the ongoing concerns over a potential global trade war sparked by US President Donald Trump's tariff plans are boosting the safe-haven appeal of gold.
However, the absence of strong selling pressure also indicates that gold might continue to rise. As a result, even if gold experiences a temporary pullback, it is likely to be seen as a buying opportunity, keeping prices well-supported.
Gold Gains Strength as US Dollar Weakens Amid Economic Uncertainty
As we mentioned above, gold is rising again, and this is due to the US dollar losing traction in the wake of fresh economic and political developments. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, has dropped to around 107.00.
At the same time, US Treasury yields stand at 4.29% for the 2-year note and 4.55% for the 10-year note. This decline in the dollar is making gold more attractive to investors, as a weaker USD reduces the cost of gold for international buyers, increasing demand.
Another factor supporting gold’s bullish trend is uncertainty over US interest rates and global trade policies. Federal Reserve officials have given mixed signals about future rate cuts, with some emphasizing the need to keep rates steady due to persistent inflation.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell also noted that the central bank is in no rush to cut rates, especially with strong job growth and solid economic performance.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump’s recent tariff threats, including a 25% duty on foreign cars and higher taxes on semiconductor chips and pharmaceuticals, have raised concerns about global trade tensions. This uncertainty is pushing investors toward safe-haven assets like gold.
Besides this, the weak US retail sales data and economic shifts in China are influencing market sentiment. On the data front, the latest report showed that US retail sales fell by 0.9% in January, a sharper decline than expected, signaling slowing consumer spending.
In China, President Xi Jinping held a meeting with top business leaders, including Alibaba co-founder Jack Ma, highlighting Beijing’s renewed focus on supporting private businesses for economic recovery.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold is trading at $2,933.25, edging up +0.01% as investors assess the next directional move. The metal remains within a well-defined range, with $2,912.88 acting as a pivotal level.
Staying above this level keeps the bullish case intact, with buyers eyeing $2,939.98 as the next hurdle. A breakout above this resistance could pave the way for a move toward $2,962.85, with an extended push targeting $2,985.02.
On the downside, immediate support at $2,893.87 is crucial—if this level gives way, expect increased selling pressure toward $2,877.33, followed by $2,853.75 as a deeper floor.
The 50-EMA at $2,902.25 is catching up to price action, signaling that bulls are maintaining control. However, failure to sustain above the pivot at $2,912.88 could shift momentum in favor of the bears.
From a trade setup perspective, buyers may find an opportunity above $2,913, with a target of $2,939 while keeping a stop loss at $2,893 to manage downside risk.
Gold’s resilience hinges on how it interacts with resistance zones, as a sustained break above could invite fresh buying interest. Conversely, slipping below $2,893.87 may accelerate bearish momentum, pressuring prices lower.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis – Feb 18, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD pair extended its bearish trend, hovering around the 0.6355 level after hitting an intra-day low of 0.6334.
The decline came in response to the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) policy decision on Tuesday, where the central bank lowered its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 4.10%, marking the first rate cut in four years.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback against six major currencies, rebounded after three consecutive losing sessions, supported by rising US Treasury yields. This upward momentum in the USD further pressured the AUD/USD pair.
RBA Cuts Interest Rates, Banks Follow, as Inflation Slows in Australia
On the AUD front, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) made a key decision on Tuesday, cutting its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 4.10%. This marked the first rate cut in four years, as expected by many analysts.
RBA Governor Michele Bullock stated that while high interest rates have made an impact on the economy, it’s still too early to say inflation is fully under control. She also mentioned that the job market has been stronger than expected, and further rate cuts are not guaranteed.
Following the RBA's decision, Australia's major banks, including CBA, NAB, ANZ, and Westpac, also lowered their interest rates by 25 basis points.
This rate cut came after inflation data for December showed slowing price pressures. Australia's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose less than expected in the last quarter of 2024, with the annualized rate dropping from 3.5% to 3.2%, providing some relief.
US Dollar Strengthens as Fed Officials Address Inflation and Economic Growth Concerns
On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar Index (DXY) has edged higher, trading around 106.80 after three days of losses. The increase comes as US Treasury yields rise, with the 2-year and 10-year bond yields standing at 4.26% and 4.50%, respectively. Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman noted that rising asset prices might slow the Fed's progress on inflation.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller also addressed inflation concerns, admitting that while it has improved, progress has been slow. He emphasized that the Fed must base decisions on data rather than policy uncertainty.
Meanwhile, the US Census Bureau reported a 0.9% drop in retail sales for January, which was worse than expected, following a 0.7% increase in December. This weaker-than-expected retail data could influence the Fed's future policy decisions.
In addition, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that the Fed does not need to rush into rate cuts due to strong job growth and solid economic performance. He also mentioned that US President Trump's tariffs could add inflationary pressures, making it harder for the central bank to reduce rates.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
The Australian dollar (AUD/USD) is trading at $0.63550, maintaining a neutral stance as traders assess key support and resistance levels. The pair is holding above the pivot point at $0.63343, suggesting a slight bullish bias, reinforced by the 50-day EMA at $0.63214 acting as a dynamic support level.
Immediate resistance is seen at $0.63744, followed by $0.64057 and $0.64324. A breakout above these levels could trigger fresh buying momentum, pushing the pair toward the next key technical zones.
On the downside, immediate support is located at $0.63067, with further cushions at $0.62703 and $0.62331. A break below these support levels could indicate a shift in sentiment, leading to deeper losses.
From a technical perspective, AUD/USD remains in a consolidative phase, oscillating between well-defined support and resistance levels.
A decisive move above $0.63744 could confirm a bullish breakout, potentially attracting buyers targeting $0.64057 and beyond. Conversely, if sellers regain control and push the price below $0.63067, the pair may enter a more pronounced downtrend.
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GOLD Price Analysis – Feb 18, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices (XAU/USD) continue to show strong bullish momentum, trading above the $2,910 level for the second consecutive day.
On Tuesday, the precious metal reached a high of $2,915, attributed to growing fears of a potential global trade war. US President Donald Trump’s threat to impose reciprocal tariffs has sparked a surge in demand for safe-haven assets like gold, pushing its price higher.
Moreover, the ongoing speculation about possible Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in the near future is further enhancing gold's appeal. Although the market faces ongoing uncertainty, gold remains a long-lasting choice for investors seeking stability in volatile times.
US Dollar Recovery Caps Gold Gains Amid Geopolitical Developments and Fed Rate Cut Speculation
On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar has seen a slight recovery, which has capped gold’s price gains, as a stronger dollar diminishes the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset. However, the dollar’s rebound is attributed to positive geopolitical developments, including the delay in Trump’s tariffs and ongoing diplomatic talks to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Although the US Dollar has gained strength, the anticipation of a Fed rate cut remains a significant driver for gold’s recent upward momentum. Traders are increasingly pricing in rate cuts in September or October, especially after the release of mixed US economic data
Geopolitical Tensions and US Tariff Threats Support Gold Prices Above $2,900
On the geopolitical front, global trade tensions, particularly US President Trump's threat to impose tariffs on automobiles starting April 2, continue to support demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. This is part of a larger strategy to impose tariffs on countries that maintain duties on US imports.
Although there is hope that the tariffs may be delayed and peace talks between Russia and Ukraine could ease tensions, the ongoing uncertainty in the geopolitical landscape is keeping gold supported above the $2,900 level.
Traders are keenly watching upcoming economic data, including the Empire State Manufacturing Index, which could provide further insight into the US economy's health. Moreover, speeches from key Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members may create new trading opportunities for gold.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,913.89, up 0.04% in the session, maintaining its bullish momentum as the metal hovers above key support levels.
The price remains firmly above the pivot point at $2,905.41, indicating a potential continuation of the uptrend. The 50-day EMA at $2,905.85 is acting as dynamic support, reinforcing buyers' control over the market.
Immediate resistance is seen at $2,935.54, with further upside targets at $2,954.97 and $2,974.92. A break above these levels could fuel a rally toward the psychological $3,000 mark.
Conversely, immediate support stands at $2,887.52, with deeper floors at $2,864.58 and $2,834.27, which could attract buyers in the event of a pullback.
From a technical standpoint, gold's consolidation above $2,905 suggests growing bullish sentiment. The metal remains in an ascending channel, with higher lows indicating sustained demand. However, a break below $2,887 could shift momentum, exposing the asset to further downside.
Given ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties, gold traders should watch for a breakout confirmation above $2,935 to validate the next leg higher. If sellers regain control below $2,887, a retracement toward $2,864 may follow.
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USD/CAD Price Analysis – Feb 18, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the USD/CAD currency pair remained flat near the 1.4179 level despite mild strength in the US dollar. However, the US Dollar Index (DXY) traded sideways, as the US markets saw inactivity due to Washington's Day holiday.
Traders are awaiting crucial data later in the week, particularly the Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figures due for release on Tuesday, which could influence the Canadian Dollar (CAD) outlook.
US Dollar Supported by Tariff Threats but Limited by Holiday Volatility
On the US front, the strength of the US dollar continued to make an impact, as President Donald Trump reiterated his threat of tariffs, with taxes on autos expected to take effect by April 2. This announcement followed a series of trade measures initiated by the president during his second term.
While such threats typically strengthen the US Dollar, the lack of market activity due to the Washington's Day holiday capped the upside momentum. Investors are closely monitoring potential tariff developments, as an escalation in trade tensions could further bolster the USD against the Canadian Dollar.
Canadian CPI Data in Focus, Loonie Could Face Pressure
In Canada, all eyes are on the upcoming CPI data for January, expected to show a year-over-year increase of 1.8%. On a monthly basis, CPI is forecast to rise by 0.1%, following a decline of 0.4% in December. If inflation comes in softer than expected, the Canadian dollar could face pressure, potentially supporting a rise in the USD/CAD pair.
However, the positive impact of rising crude oil prices on the CAD cannot be overlooked. As the largest oil exporter to the US, Canada stands to benefit from higher oil prices, which could limit losses for the loonie.
Despite the renewed strength in the US dollar, the USD/CAD pair remains relatively stagnant as traders balance the economic data from both countries and monitor developments on the global trade front. With CPI data and oil prices in focus, the pair’s next move could depend heavily on the outcome of these factors.
USD/CAD – Technical Analysis
The USD/CAD pair is trading at $1.42072, edging lower by 0.01% as traders assess key technical levels. The pair is hovering near its pivot point at $1.41803, suggesting a neutral to slightly bullish bias in the near term.
The 50-day EMA at $1.42724 is acting as overhead resistance, capping upside potential, while immediate support at $1.41257 remains intact.
On the upside, a break above $1.42450 could signal further gains, targeting resistance at $1.43035 and potentially extending toward $1.43614 if bullish momentum persists.
Conversely, a drop below $1.41257 may expose USD/CAD to further downside risks, with the next key supports at $1.40774 and $1.40203.
From a technical standpoint, the market remains in a consolidation phase, oscillating between well-defined support and resistance levels.
A decisive breakout above $1.42450 could confirm bullish momentum, while failure to hold above $1.41803 may tilt the bias in favor of sellers.
The 50-day EMA at $1.42724 serves as a key barrier, with a sustained break above it needed for a more definitive bullish confirmation.
Given the current setup, traders should watch for a breakout confirmation above resistance or a move below support to establish the next directional trend.
With USD/CAD trading near its pivot level, price action in the coming sessions will likely dictate market sentiment.
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GBP/USD Price Analysis – Feb 17, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair prolonged its bullish rally and remained well bid around the 1.2603 level, hitting an intra-day high of 1.2607.
However, the reason for its upward trend can be attributed to investors turning cautious ahead of the UK employment data for the three months ending in December, set to be released on Tuesday.
Traders are closely watching this data to gauge the strength of the UK labor market, which could influence the Bank of England's future decisions. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is struggling to stay above 106.70, its lowest level in over two months, adding some support to GBP/USD.
Another key factor influencing the British pound is the reaction of business owners to Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves’ decision to raise employers’ contributions to National Insurance (NI). In the Autumn Budget, she announced an increase of 1.2%, bringing the rate to 15%, which will take effect in April.
This has raised concerns among businesses, as higher costs could impact hiring and overall economic growth. As a result, traders will be closely monitoring the UK labor market data to see how businesses are responding to these policy changes.
GBP/USD Gains Amid Cautious Sentiment Ahead of UK Employment Data
On the GBP front, the gains in the GBP/USD currency pair were mainly supported by investors being cautious ahead of the UK employment data for the three months ending in December, set to be released on Tuesday.
Investors are closely watching the UK labor market to see if business owners are still unhappy with the government’s decision to raise National Insurance contributions.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves recently announced a 1.2% increase, bringing the total to 15%, which will take effect in April. This move has led to a slowdown in private sector hiring, with only 35K new jobs added in the three months ending in November, a sharp drop from the 173K added in the previous period.
Meanwhile, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey stated that he sees signs of weakness in the labor market but remains confident that inflation is on a downward path. The UK’s unemployment rate is expected to rise slightly to 4.5% in December.
Market participants will also be watching closely for UK wage growth data, as strong wage increases could keep inflation high, especially in the service sector.
The BoE has warned that inflation may pick up again before returning to its 2% target due to higher energy prices. As a result, weak employment conditions and high inflation expectations could raise concerns about stagflation risks. Later in the week, investors will also focus on UK CPI and Retail Sales data.
US Dollar Weakens as Market Sentiment Improves, Supporting GBP/USD
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has been sluggish and remained subdued as market sentiment improved. The US dollar weakened as fears of an immediate global trade war eased after US President Donald Trump delayed the imposition of reciprocal tariffs, which are now unlikely to take effect before April 1.
Last week, investors had been worried about a potential trade war, expecting Trump to announce new tariffs on Thursday.
Meanwhile, recent US inflation data came in stronger than expected, with both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) showing higher-than-anticipated numbers for January.
This has led to cautious remarks from Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan, who emphasized the need for patience before adjusting interest rates. She stated that the Federal Reserve would closely monitor upcoming economic data, as well as geopolitical developments and Trump’s economic policies.
GBP/USD – Technical Analysis
GBP/USD is hovering around $1.25960, showing signs of consolidation after a recent pullback. The pair is trading just above its pivot point at $1.25795, which serves as a critical level for determining near-term direction.
Immediate resistance stands at $1.26310, and a breakout above this level could drive bullish momentum toward the next resistance zones at $1.26667 and $1.27037.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at $1.25498, followed by key levels at $1.25104 and $1.24765. A failure to hold above $1.25498 could accelerate selling pressure, potentially triggering a deeper correction.
The 50-day EMA at $1.24956 suggests that the broader trend remains supported, as the moving average aligns closely with key support levels. If buyers maintain control above the $1.25793 entry point, a move toward $1.26303 appears likely, making it a strategic buy opportunity with a stop loss at $1.25488.
From a technical perspective, GBP/USD is positioned for a potential breakout if it maintains strength above the pivot point of $1.25795.
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GOLD Price Analysis – Feb 17, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold price (XAU/USD) prolonged its bullish momentum and remained well bid around $2,898 level, reaching an intra-day high of $2,906.
However, the main drivers behind this rally include the ongoing weakness in the US Dollar, uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump’s planned tariffs, and disappointing US Retail Sales data. These factors have provided strong support for gold, pushing it above the critical $2,900 mark.
Despite the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on interest rates, gold remains resilient. However, the market continues to favor gold due to its safe-haven status in an uncertain global economic environment.
In the meantime, ongoing US-Russia negotiations over the Ukraine conflict have not impacted gold’s bullish momentum, further solidifying its strong outlook.
Weaker US Dollar and Inflation Concerns Bolster Gold's Strength
On the US front, the US dollar remains under pressure, hovering near a two-month low around 106.70. This decline comes amid weaker-than-expected US Retail Sales data, which fell by 0.9% in January, far exceeding the anticipated 0.1% decline.
The disappointing economic data, coupled with lower US Treasury yields, has weighed on the dollar, making gold more attractive to investors.
Furthermore, inflation data has reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will delay interest rate cuts. Notably, the US Core Producer Price Index (PPI) rose to 3.6% year-over-year in January, surpassing expectations of 3.3%. Similarly, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed 3.0% annually, with core CPI rising to 3.3%, both exceeding forecasts.
Therefore, this combination of a weaker US dollar and lower Treasury yields, along with stronger inflation data, has made gold more attractive. Investors are turning to gold as a hedge against economic uncertainty, pushing its price higher.
Impact of Trade Uncertainty and Fed's Stance on Gold Prices
Another key factor influencing gold prices is concern over Donald Trump’s proposed trade policies. The former US president has hinted at imposing new tariffs on countries that tax US imports, raising fears of a trade war. These developments have increased market uncertainty, pushing investors toward safe-haven assets like gold.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently reiterated that policymakers are in no rush to lower interest rates, citing strong job growth and economic resilience. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll of economists indicates that the majority expect at least one rate cut by June, though opinions remain divided on the exact timing.
Therefore, the ongoing concerns over Trump's proposed tariffs and ongoing market uncertainty, combined with the Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts, are driving investors toward gold as a safe-haven asset, supporting its price.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is consolidating around $2,900, struggling to gain momentum as it trades near its key pivot point at $2,919.39.
The metal’s short-term price action remains uncertain, with traders eyeing crucial resistance and support levels. A break above $2,935.54 could trigger fresh buying interest, potentially pushing prices toward the next resistance levels at $2,954.97 and $2,970.84.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at $2,853.43. If gold breaches this level, further declines toward $2,834.27 and $2,811.56 may follow. The 50-day EMA at $2,906.38 is acting as dynamic support, keeping gold within a tight range.
The 4-hour chart suggests gold remains in a consolidation phase, with buyers defending the $2,887 level while sellers cap gains near $2,920. The market's next major move hinges on whether gold can break out of this tight range. A buy entry above $2,887 with a target of $2,920 and a stop loss at $2,872 could provide a strategic trade setup.
Gold’s technical outlook remains bullish above $2,887, but failure to hold support could accelerate selling pressure.
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