GBP/USD Price Analysis – Feb 17, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair prolonged its bullish rally and remained well bid around the 1.2603 level, hitting an intra-day high of 1.2607.
However, the reason for its upward trend can be attributed to investors turning cautious ahead of the UK employment data for the three months ending in December, set to be released on Tuesday.
Traders are closely watching this data to gauge the strength of the UK labor market, which could influence the Bank of England's future decisions. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is struggling to stay above 106.70, its lowest level in over two months, adding some support to GBP/USD.
Another key factor influencing the British pound is the reaction of business owners to Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves’ decision to raise employers’ contributions to National Insurance (NI). In the Autumn Budget, she announced an increase of 1.2%, bringing the rate to 15%, which will take effect in April.
This has raised concerns among businesses, as higher costs could impact hiring and overall economic growth. As a result, traders will be closely monitoring the UK labor market data to see how businesses are responding to these policy changes.
GBP/USD Gains Amid Cautious Sentiment Ahead of UK Employment Data
On the GBP front, the gains in the GBP/USD currency pair were mainly supported by investors being cautious ahead of the UK employment data for the three months ending in December, set to be released on Tuesday.
Investors are closely watching the UK labor market to see if business owners are still unhappy with the government’s decision to raise National Insurance contributions.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves recently announced a 1.2% increase, bringing the total to 15%, which will take effect in April. This move has led to a slowdown in private sector hiring, with only 35K new jobs added in the three months ending in November, a sharp drop from the 173K added in the previous period.
Meanwhile, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey stated that he sees signs of weakness in the labor market but remains confident that inflation is on a downward path. The UK’s unemployment rate is expected to rise slightly to 4.5% in December.
Market participants will also be watching closely for UK wage growth data, as strong wage increases could keep inflation high, especially in the service sector.
The BoE has warned that inflation may pick up again before returning to its 2% target due to higher energy prices. As a result, weak employment conditions and high inflation expectations could raise concerns about stagflation risks. Later in the week, investors will also focus on UK CPI and Retail Sales data.
US Dollar Weakens as Market Sentiment Improves, Supporting GBP/USD
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has been sluggish and remained subdued as market sentiment improved. The US dollar weakened as fears of an immediate global trade war eased after US President Donald Trump delayed the imposition of reciprocal tariffs, which are now unlikely to take effect before April 1.
Last week, investors had been worried about a potential trade war, expecting Trump to announce new tariffs on Thursday.
Meanwhile, recent US inflation data came in stronger than expected, with both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) showing higher-than-anticipated numbers for January.
This has led to cautious remarks from Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan, who emphasized the need for patience before adjusting interest rates. She stated that the Federal Reserve would closely monitor upcoming economic data, as well as geopolitical developments and Trump’s economic policies.
GBP/USD – Technical Analysis
GBP/USD is hovering around $1.25960, showing signs of consolidation after a recent pullback. The pair is trading just above its pivot point at $1.25795, which serves as a critical level for determining near-term direction.
Immediate resistance stands at $1.26310, and a breakout above this level could drive bullish momentum toward the next resistance zones at $1.26667 and $1.27037.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at $1.25498, followed by key levels at $1.25104 and $1.24765. A failure to hold above $1.25498 could accelerate selling pressure, potentially triggering a deeper correction.
The 50-day EMA at $1.24956 suggests that the broader trend remains supported, as the moving average aligns closely with key support levels. If buyers maintain control above the $1.25793 entry point, a move toward $1.26303 appears likely, making it a strategic buy opportunity with a stop loss at $1.25488.
From a technical perspective, GBP/USD is positioned for a potential breakout if it maintains strength above the pivot point of $1.25795.
Related News
- GOLD Price Analysis – Feb 17, 2025
S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis – Feb 14, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
S&P 500 (SPX) Index maintained its bullish trend and surged past the 6,116 level in intraday trading, marking an increase of over 1% as investor sentiment improved.
However, the rally was largely driven by US President Donald Trump's decision to postpone the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, alleviating some trade war concerns.
Global markets remained strong, with European indexes set for their eighth consecutive weekly gain. Trump's announcement to hold off on imposing new tariffs suggested a willingness to negotiate, which helped fuel optimism among investors.
However, uncertainty remains as previous tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China continue to impact global trade.
S&P 500 Gains Momentum as US Dollar Weakens and Inflation Remains Sticky
On the other hand, the broad-based US dollar weakened, with the Dollar Index (DXY) dropping to 107.50. This decline came as progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks boosted investor confidence, reducing demand for the safe-haven dollar.
Hence, the weaker dollar typically benefits stocks, and this shift in sentiment helped the S&P 500 gain traction. Investors turned their focus to riskier assets, pushing equities higher as optimism about geopolitical stability improved.
Meanwhile, fresh inflation data from the US showed that price pressures remain strong. The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 3.5% in January, exceeding expectations of 3.2%, while core PPI, which excludes food and energy, climbed to 3.6%. These figures indicate that inflation is still sticky, raising concerns that the Federal Reserve may delay its expected interest rate cuts.
Despite these inflation concerns, the S&P 500 continued its upward movement, supported by strong corporate earnings and improved risk appetite. Investors remain hopeful that economic growth and easing geopolitical tensions will sustain the stock market's positive momentum.
Investor Focus on US Retail Sales Data
Moving ahead, investors are keeping an eye on the upcoming US Retail Sales data, which could impact market trends. If sales are strong, it may boost confidence in the economy and support stock market gains. On the other hand, weaker data could raise expectations that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates sooner.
S&P 500 – Technical Analysis
The S&P 500 (SPX) is trading at 6115.08, up 0.01%, as the index continues to hover near record highs despite mixed economic signals.
The benchmark remains supported above its pivot point of 6093.87, indicating a positive underlying trend.
From a technical perspective, the index maintains its position above the 50-day EMA at 6054.58, suggesting sustained bullish sentiment. Immediate resistance is seen at 6128.99, with a potential move toward 6171.70 if the index breaks through.
A successful climb beyond this level could open the path toward 6219.27, marking a new high for the year.
On the downside, immediate support rests at 6049.53, with subsequent levels at 6008.89 and 5969.55. A drop below the 6049 mark may trigger profit-taking and shift sentiment toward the bearish side.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates neutral territory, suggesting room for further gains if buying pressure intensifies.
Fundamental factors also contribute to the cautious optimism, with strong corporate earnings providing support despite concerns about inflation and potential interest rate adjustments.
Recent PPI data showed a modest uptick, reinforcing the Fed’s cautious stance on rate cuts, which investors are closely monitoring.
Related News
- GOLD Price Analysis – Feb 14, 2025
EUR/USD Price Analysis – Feb 14, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair prolonged its upward trend and remained well bid around the 1.0480 level. The reason for this bullish rally could be tied to increased demand for riskier assets and a weaker US dollar.
Investors are feeling more optimistic due to multiple positive developments, including the delay in Trump's proposed tariffs and hopes for peace between Russia and Ukraine. This has reduced the demand for the safe-haven US dollar, making the euro more attractive.
Euro Gains Support but Faces Pressure from ECB Rate Cut Expectations
On the EUR front, the shared currency has been supported by positive developments, including optimism over a potential Russia-Ukraine truce. If the conflict ends, it could significantly improve the Eurozone’s energy supply and ease supply chain disruptions.
However, the European Commission has strongly opposed Trump's proposed reciprocal tariffs, calling them a step "in the wrong direction" and warning of an immediate and firm response. While the delay in these tariffs has provided temporary relief, trade tensions remain a risk for the Euro.
At the same time, expectations of further rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) could put pressure on the Euro against the US dollar. Several ECB officials, including Croatian central bank Governor Boris Vujčić, have signaled that three more rate cuts this year seem reasonable.
The ECB already lowered rates by 25 basis points to 2.75% last month, and if more cuts happen, the widening rate gap with the Federal Reserve could weaken the Euro.
Despite these concerns, the Eurozone economy showed slight growth in Q4 2024, with GDP rising by 0.1% compared to initial estimates of 0%. Employment also grew by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter and 0.6% year-on-year. While these figures indicate slow but steady progress, traders remain cautious about the Euro’s outlook against the US dollar.
US Dollar Weakens on Trade and Peace Hopes, but Fed’s Stance Limits Losses
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar edged lower as safe-haven demand faded due to a delay in Trump's reciprocal tariffs and growing hopes for peace between Russia and Ukraine.
This led to a fresh four-week low in the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s performance against major currencies, slipping below 107.00. The reduced demand for the USD has given the Euro some support, helping EUR/USD stay strong.
However, the US dollar's outlook is not entirely bearish, as traders expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep interest rates high for an extended period.
The Fed's current rate range of 4.25%-4.50% is expected to remain unchanged for at least the next three meetings, with a 50% chance of a rate cut in July. Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently stated that the central bank is ready to keep rates high if inflation remains above the 2% target and the economy stays strong.
Looking ahead, investors are closely watching US Retail Sales data for January, which is set to be released at 13:30 GMT. Economists expect a 0.1% decline in sales after a 0.4% rise in December. If the data is weaker than expected, it could put more pressure on the US dollar and further support EUR/USD.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is trading at 1.04560, down 0.01%, as the euro faces renewed pressure amid mixed macroeconomic signals. The pair continues to consolidate near its pivot point of 1.04369, suggesting a period of indecision for traders.
Technically, the pair remains above the 50-day EMA, currently at 1.03703, indicating underlying bullish potential. Immediate resistance is observed at 1.04927, with further targets at 1.05326 and 1.05696 if upward momentum strengthens.
A clear break above 1.04927 could attract fresh buying interest and shift the short-term outlook to bullish.
On the downside, immediate support lies at 1.03916, followed by 1.03452. A drop below these levels could expose the pair to further losses, with the next key support at 1.02963. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains neutral, hinting at possible volatility if the pair approaches the 1.04369 pivot.
Fundamentally, the euro remains vulnerable to external economic factors, including the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on rate adjustments and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties.
The latest PPI figures in the U.S. came in hotter than expected, reinforcing the Fed’s hawkish narrative and giving the dollar a slight edge. Meanwhile, investors are closely monitoring European inflation data due later this week, which could provide further direction.
Related News
- GOLD Price Analysis – Feb 14, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – Feb 14, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold price (XAU/USD) maintained its upward trend and hit an all-time high of $2,939. The rally was mainly supported by increased demand for safe-haven assets after US President Donald Trump signed an executive order for reciprocal tariffs on Thursday.
Although the tariffs will take weeks to be implemented, investors are playing it safe and shifting their money into Gold, pushing its price higher.
Another reason for Gold’s strong performance is the weakening US Dollar (USD). The US Dollar Index (DXY) has lost traction as traders realize that Trump's tariffs won’t take effect immediately, leaving room for negotiations.
This uncertainty has reduced the urgency to rush into the Dollar, making Gold a more attractive option for investors looking for stability.
Gold Near Record Highs as US Dollar Struggles and Inflation Concerns Rise
On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the strength of the Dollar against other major currencies, is holding steady after losses in the previous session. It remains around the 107.00 level, with US Treasury bond yields for 2-year and 10-year notes standing at 4.31% and 4.53%, respectively.
Inflation figures also came in higher than expected, with both the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising more than anticipated. This has led to expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will hold off on cutting interest rates for now.
The Fed's stance on rates remains cautious due to the strong job market and economic growth. In his semi-annual report, Fed Chair Powell mentioned there’s no rush to lower rates, especially with rising inflation pressures.
Trump’s tariffs on several countries could also contribute to higher prices, making it more difficult for the Fed to ease rates anytime soon. This uncertainty about inflation and rate cuts has kept Gold attractive, pushing its price to near record highs.
Gold has been on the rise for three days, recently trading close to its all-time high. With the US dollar struggling and trade tensions increasing due to Trump’s tariff orders, Gold remains a safe-haven investment.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,932.09, up 0.01% as it maintains its bullish momentum amid persistent inflation concerns and ongoing tariff-related market anxiety.
The metal remains supported above its pivot point of $2,923.29, indicating continued investor interest in safe-haven assets.
Technically, gold is trading comfortably above the 50-day EMA, which sits at $2,907.75. This suggests the bullish trend remains intact, with the next immediate resistance at $2,943.27.
A break above this level could propel gold toward $2,959.89 and potentially $2,975.66 if the upward momentum strengthens.
On the downside, immediate support lies at $2,898.08, followed by $2,879.70 and $2,864.94. A dip below the $2,898 level might trigger profit-taking and shift sentiment to the downside.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains near neutral, signaling balanced market sentiment with room for potential upside if buying pressure increases.
Fundamentally, gold continues to benefit from a weaker U.S. dollar and elevated inflation figures, as the latest PPI data showed a 3.5% year-over-year rise, exceeding market expectations.
The Federal Reserve's cautious approach toward rate cuts further supports gold’s appeal, particularly as uncertainty surrounding new tariff measures persists.
Related News
- EUR/USD Price Analysis – Feb 14, 2025
USD/JPY Price Analysis – Feb 13, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the USD/JPY currency pair failed to stop its bearish rally and remained under pressure around the 153.70 level.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthened after Japan's Producer Price Index (PPI) data came out stronger than expected, increasing the chances that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates again.
This gave the JPY a boost, making it more attractive to investors. Meanwhile, a drop in US Treasury bond yields added more pressure on the US Dollar (USD), further pushing USD/JPY lower.
However, the downside for the pair remains limited due to concerns over new tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump on steel and aluminum imports, which could impact global trade and weigh on the JPY.
Moreover, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to maintain its hawkish stance, especially after strong US inflation data released on Wednesday. This could support the USD and prevent the USD/JPY pair from falling further.
As a result, traders should be cautious before expecting a significant drop in the currency pair, especially after it reached a one-week high the previous day.
USD/JPY Struggles as Fed's Hawkish Stance Clashes with BoJ Rate Hike Expectations
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar failed to stop its bearish rally and remained under pressure as the latest inflation data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates high for longer.
On the data front, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.5% in January, marking the biggest increase since August 2023. On a yearly basis, inflation climbed to 3%, while core CPI (excluding food and energy) reached 3.3%.
This suggests that inflation remains sticky, supporting the Fed’s hawkish stance. Fed Chair Jerome Powell also signaled that monetary policy will stay restrictive as inflation is still above the 2% target. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond saw its biggest jump since December, increasing the interest rate gap between the US and Japan, which could help limit the US dollar’s losses.
Japanese Yen Gains on BoJ Rate Hike Hopes but Faces Trade Uncertainty
Apart from this, the Japanese Yen (JPY) gained strength as inflationary pressures continued to build. Japan’s Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.3% in January and 4.2% year-over-year, reinforcing expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) might raise interest rates again. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda and Deputy Governor Himino also hinted at a possible rate hike if economic conditions align with projections.
However, JPY bulls showed some caution due to concerns that US President Donald Trump’s tariffs on commodity imports could hurt Japan’s economy.
Looking ahead, traders will focus on the upcoming US Producer Price Index (PPI) and weekly jobless claims data, which could influence the US dollar’s movement and impact the USD/JPY pair.
USD/JPY – Technical Analysis
The USD/JPY pair is trading at 154.05, showing signs of weakness as it struggles to hold above its pivot point at 154.20. A failure to maintain this level suggests bearish momentum could intensify, with immediate support at 153.74.
A break below this threshold could expose the pair to deeper declines toward 153.27 and 152.77, reinforcing the case for a potential downside move.
On the upside, resistance is forming at 154.80, with further hurdles at 155.24 and 155.86. A push above these levels could reignite bullish sentiment, paving the way for renewed buying interest. However, current price action suggests selling pressure is capping gains, limiting any immediate recovery attempts.
The 50-day EMA at 153.35 serves as a key indicator to watch. If USD/JPY drops below this mark, it could confirm further downside potential, triggering additional selling pressure.
Conversely, a sustained move above the pivot at 154.20 may shift momentum in favor of buyers, though a decisive break above 154.80 would be required to confirm an uptrend.
Traders looking to capitalize on this setup may consider selling below 154.18, with a take-profit target at 153.50 and a stop-loss set at 154.78 to manage risk effectively. While short-term volatility remains, overall sentiment leans bearish unless buyers reclaim key resistance levels.
Related News
- GOLD Price Analysis – Feb 13, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – Feb 13, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices (XAU/USD) extended their bullish momentum, reaching an intra-day high of $2,922. The recent surge is largely attributed to a decline in US Treasury bond yields, which weakened the US Dollar and made gold more attractive to investors.
Furthermore, growing fears of a global trade war, fueled by former US President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policies, have intensified demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
Despite gold’s strong upward trend, the concerns over rising US inflation persist. On the data front, the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report revealed a higher-than-expected increase in consumer prices, reinforcing speculation that the Federal Reserve will maintain its hawkish stance.
Hence, the prospect of prolonged high interest rates could pose challenges for gold’s rally, as rising US Treasury yields and a stronger Dollar typically reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold.
US Dollar Struggles Amid Inflation Concerns and Trade Tariffs, Supporting Gold Prices
On the macroeconomic front, the US Dollar has struggled to gain momentum, providing additional support for gold. The latest US inflation report initially triggered market volatility, but persistent concerns over former US President Donald Trump’s newly imposed tariffs kept safe-haven demand strong.
Trump’s decision to impose a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, along with threats of additional tariffs on countries with high levies on US goods, has heightened market uncertainty.
On the data front, the US inflation data showed that consumer prices surged in January, with the CPI rising by 0.5%, marking the highest increase since August 2023. The annual inflation rate climbed to 3%, while core inflation (excluding food and energy) rose to 3.3%, exceeding market expectations.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has emphasized that inflation remains a key concern, making it unlikely that the central bank will cut interest rates until inflation moves closer to the 2% target.
Meanwhile, strong US economic data, including robust job market performance and GDP growth, further supports the Fed’s cautious stance.
Investors are now turning their attention to the upcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) report, which could provide additional clarity on inflation trends.
If inflation remains elevated, gold and silver prices may face resistance, but if inflation shows signs of easing, both metals could continue their bullish momentum.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2917.37, showing slight downside pressure as it hovers just below its pivot point of $2922.88. The 50-day EMA at $2900.68 provides a crucial support level, reinforcing near-term stability. However, the bearish sentiment remains intact as long as gold stays below the pivot.
On the upside, immediate resistance stands at $2943.27, with a breakout potentially pushing gold towards $2959.89 and ultimately $2975.96. However, recent price action suggests that buyers are struggling to gain control, making a sustained move above these levels uncertain.
On the downside, immediate support is set at $2898.08, followed by $2879.70 and $2864.94. A break below these levels could accelerate selling momentum, with traders eyeing the next key levels for potential entry points.
The entry strategy favors selling below $2922, targeting $2900 as a take-profit level, while stop-loss is set at $2935 to manage risk. The overall trend suggests cautious bearish sentiment, with gold needing a decisive breakout above resistance levels to shift momentum back in favor of buyers.
Related News
- AUD/USD Price Analysis – Feb 13, 2025
AUD/USD Price Analysis – Feb 13, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair struggled to recover and stayed under pressure around the 0.6270 level, even dropping to an intra-day low of 0.6264.
However, the reason for this downward trend can be linked to growing fears of a global trade war. The US is expected to announce new tariffs, which could hurt global trade and weaken riskier currencies like the Australian Dollar (AUD).
Despite this pressure, the AUD later found some support after Australia’s Consumer Inflation Expectations rose to 4.6% in February, up from 4.0% previously.
However, the gains in the AUD remain limited as traders await key US economic data. The US Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation report, due later in the day, could influence the US Dollar’s (USD) movement.
If the data shows higher-than-expected inflation, it could strengthen the USD by increasing the chances of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates higher. This would add further pressure on the AUD/USD pair.
US Dollar Weakness and Trade Tensions Impact AUD/USD
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has been losing traction and remains under pressure as the US Dollar Index (DXY) trades around 108.00.
This weakness comes after US inflation data showed the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 3.0% year-over-year in January, slightly higher than the expected 2.9%. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, also increased to 3.3% from 3.2%.
These higher inflation figures have lowered expectations for an early interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed).
However, the CME FedWatch Tool now suggests only a 30% chance of a rate cut in June. Fed Chair Jerome Powell reinforced this view, stating that strong job growth and rising prices mean there’s no rush to lower rates.
Meanwhile, a Reuters poll shows that most economists now expect the Fed to delay cutting rates until later this year.
For the AUD/USD pair, the weakening US Dollar provides some support, but gains remain limited due to ongoing trade concerns. US President Donald Trump has expanded steel and aluminum tariffs by 25%, affecting key allies like Australia.
This move has raised fears of further trade tensions, which could negatively impact riskier currencies like the Australian Dollar (AUD).
Meanwhile, the Fed is expected to keep interest rates steady, with officials like Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack emphasizing a patient approach. Investors now await more US economic data, as any surprises could influence the AUD/USD pair’s direction in the coming days.
AUD/USD Faces Pressure Amid Trade Tensions and RBA Rate Cut Expectations
On the AUD front, the Australian Dollar (AUD) managed to gain some ground against the US Dollar (USD) after Australia’s Consumer Inflation Expectations rose to 4.6% in February from 4.0% previously.
This increase suggests that inflation pressures remain, which could influence the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy. However, the AUD’s gains were limited due to growing concerns over a potential global trade war.
US President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff hike on imports, sparking fears of economic strain. Traders are also closely watching the US Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation report, which could impact the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) next move on interest rates.
Meanwhile, trade tensions between the US and Australia have added more pressure on the AUD/USD pair.
Trump’s trade adviser, Peter Navarro, accused Australia of damaging the aluminum market, increasing uncertainty about whether Australia will receive exemptions from the new tariffs.
Moreover, expectations for an RBA interest rate cut are rising, with a 95% chance of rates being lowered from 4.35% to 4.10% in the coming months. If the RBA moves forward with a rate cut, the AUD could face further downside against the USD.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
The AUD/USD pair is trading at $0.62926, hovering above its pivot point of $0.62860. The pair is attempting to sustain its modest upside momentum, supported by the 50-day EMA at $0.62845, which reinforces near-term bullish sentiment.
On the upside, immediate resistance stands at $0.63149, with a breakout paving the way for a move towards $0.63357 and potentially $0.63568 if buyers maintain control. A sustained rally above these levels would indicate growing strength in the Australian dollar, driven by risk appetite and a softening U.S. dollar.
Conversely, immediate support is located at $0.62665, followed by $0.62438 and $0.62214. A decisive drop below these levels would expose AUD/USD to further losses, increasing the likelihood of a bearish reversal.
The preferred entry strategy is to buy above $0.62863, targeting $0.63253 as a take-profit level, while stop-loss is set at $0.62662 to manage downside risk.
Overall, the pair remains bullish above $0.62860, with a break above $0.63149 likely to confirm a stronger uptrend. However, traders should monitor price action closely, as a failure to hold above support levels could shift sentiment in favor of the bears.
Related News
- GOLD Price Analysis – Feb 13, 2025
GBP/USD Price Analysis – Feb 12, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
GBP/USD – Technical Analysis
GBP/USD is trading at $1.24440, struggling to hold ground as bearish sentiment prevails. The pair has dipped below its pivot point at $1.24525, signaling potential downside movement.
The strength of the U.S. dollar, driven by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish outlook and resilient economic data, continues to weigh on the British pound.
From a technical perspective, the 50-day EMA at $1.24194 is providing dynamic support, but if breached, it could accelerate losses. Immediate resistance is seen at $1.24911, and a break above this level may push GBP/USD toward the next targets at $1.25420 and $1.25987. However, with sellers maintaining control, any short-term gains could be met with resistance.
On the downside, $1.23972 is the first key support level. A sustained move below this level could deepen losses toward $1.23340, with the next major support resting at $1.22743.
Given the current trend, traders may consider sell positions below $1.24521, aiming for a take profit at $1.23843 while placing a stop loss at $1.24913 to manage risk.
Looking ahead, traders will monitor upcoming U.S. inflation figures which may further influence market sentiment, determining whether the dollar continues its dominance or retreats, giving GBP/USD a potential lift.
Related News
- EUR/USD Price Analysis – Feb 12, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – Feb 12, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices (XAU/USD) continue to slide, struggling to find support around the $2,890 level, with an intra-day dip to $2,883. However, the main reason behind this decline is the strengthening US Dollar, which gained momentum after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments on Tuesday.
His remarks signaled that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates higher for longer, reducing the appeal of gold. As a result, investors are leaning towards the dollar, putting further pressure on gold prices.
Meanwhile, the upbeat mood in the markets has made investors less interested in gold, which is typically seen as a safe-haven asset. On top of that, worries about a potential economic slowdown fueled by former US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs and the risk of a global trade war could still keep gold from falling too much, as investors may turn back to it for safety.
Stronger US Dollar and Fed’s Cautious Stance Weigh on Gold Prices
On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar Index (DXY) is holding strong near 108.00 as traders await key inflation data. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, set to be released on Wednesday, is expected to show headline inflation steady at 2.9% year-over-year, while core inflation may slightly dip to 3.1% from 3.2%.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in his testimony to Congress, stated that the central bank is in no rush to cut interest rates, citing a strong job market and stable economic growth.
He also warned that former President Donald Trump's new tariffs on imports could push prices higher, making it even harder for the Fed to lower rates.
Consequently, the market now expects the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts, possibly until the next quarter, as inflation concerns remain.
Many economists who previously predicted a rate cut in March have revised their expectations, with most now anticipating a cut by June.
As a result, the US Dollar continues to gain strength as the Fed signals a cautious approach, following January’s jobs report, which showed slowing job growth but a lower unemployment rate.
Meanwhile, Fed officials have expressed mixed views, with some, like Neel Kashkari, open to supporting rate cuts if inflation data improves while the job market stays strong.
For gold prices, this outlook is bearish, as a stronger US Dollar and delayed rate cuts make the precious metal less attractive. Moreover, Trump's decision to expand tariffs on steel and aluminum could further fuel inflation, potentially forcing the Fed to keep rates higher for longer.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is experiencing downward pressure, trading at $2,886.14, slipping 0.01% as the stronger U.S. dollar and hawkish Federal Reserve outlook weigh on sentiment. The metal remains below its pivot point at $2,898.48, signaling a potential continuation of bearish momentum.
On the technical front, the 50-day EMA at $2,854.23 is acting as a key support level, while immediate resistance stands at $2,943.27. A break above this level could trigger further upside towards $2,966.54, with an extended rally possible up to $2,990.75. However, the current structure suggests a lower probability of a breakout as long as the dollar remains strong.
Downside risks persist, with $2,862.33 serving as immediate support. A break below this level could accelerate selling pressure, exposing $2,833.82 and potentially deeper support at $2,806.78. Given the setup, traders may consider short positions below $2,898, targeting $2,862, with a stop loss at $2,920 to manage risk.
Gold’s near-term trend will likely be dictated by upcoming U.S. economic data, particularly inflation figures and any shifts in Federal Reserve rate expectations. If inflation softens, gold could regain ground; however, persistently high inflation may reinforce the dollar’s strength, limiting gold’s upside potential.
Related News
- GBP/USD Price Analysis – Feb 12, 2025
EUR/USD Price Analysis – Feb 12, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session on Wednesday, the EUR/USD currency pair moved higher, reaching close to 1.0380 ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for January, set to be released at 13:30 GMT.
The Euro (EUR) continued to perform well, strengthening against most other major currencies. This rise came despite growing concerns about a potential trade war between the US and the Eurozone.
At the same time, tensions between the US and the European Union (EU) were rising. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned that the EU would not stand by if President Donald Trump’s administration went ahead with imposing 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports.
EUR/USD Holds Firm Amid Trade War Concerns and ECB Rate Cut Expectations
On the EUR front, the shared currency has managed to hold its ground and continues to perform well against major peers, even as concerns over a trade war between the US and the Eurozone grow.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned that the EU would not stay silent if the US imposes 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports.
She made it clear that the EU is prepared to take action to protect its economic interests and could introduce countermeasures in response. This growing tension has added uncertainty to the market, but the Euro remains steady, keeping EUR/USD firm.
Former US President Donald Trump has already signed executive orders enforcing 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports without any exemptions, aiming to boost local production. He is also considering imposing similar tariffs on other countries he believes engage in unfair trade practices.
Market participants worry that the Eurozone could face additional pressure from reciprocal tariffs. Currently, the EU imposes a 10% tariff on US automobile imports, while US domestic cars entering the EU face a lower 2.5% import duty. These trade conflicts could weigh on EUR/USD movements in the coming days.
Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to announce more interest rate cuts this year, as inflation remains below its 2% target. ECB policymaker and Bank of France head Francois Villeroy de Galhau has warned that Trump’s trade policies could harm the economy in the long run.
Investors are also awaiting the European Commission’s economic growth forecasts, which will be released on Thursday and could influence EUR/USD trading.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is hovering around $1.03581, showing slight weakness as the U.S. dollar maintains its strength. The pair has slipped below its pivot point at $1.03670, reinforcing a short-term bearish bias.
Persistent concerns over Federal Reserve policy tightening and resilient U.S. economic data have kept pressure on the euro, limiting its upside potential.
On the technical side, the 50-day EMA at $1.03465 is acting as a dynamic support level. Immediate resistance stands at $1.04093, with a breakout above this level potentially opening the door to further gains toward $1.04497 and $1.04922. However, the current trend suggests that buyers remain cautious amid macroeconomic uncertainty.
Downside risks are evident, with $1.02997 serving as the first major support level. A sustained break below this level could accelerate losses toward $1.02551, followed by a deeper decline toward $1.02135.
Given the technical setup, traders may look for sell positions below $1.03674, targeting $1.03007, while maintaining a stop loss at $1.04115.
Looking ahead, market participants will be closely watching U.S. inflation data and any Federal Reserve commentary for signals on future rate policy.
A softer inflation reading could weaken the dollar and support the euro, while persistent inflationary pressures may reinforce the Fed’s hawkish stance, keeping EUR/USD under pressure.
Related News
- GBP/USD Price Analysis – Feb 12, 2025