USD/CAD Price Analysis – Feb 11, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session on Tuesday, the USD/CAD currency pair continued to rise and reaching around 1.4340. The increase came after US President Donald Trump announced a sharp hike in tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to a flat 25% on Monday.
This move is meant to protect struggling US industries but has also raised concerns about a possible trade war, adding pressure to global markets.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the US dollar against major currencies, extended its gains for the fourth consecutive session, reaching around 108.50. The stronger dollar is putting pressure on the Canadian dollar, making USD/CAD move higher.
Moreover, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is now expected to keep interest rates steady throughout the year. This expectation follows the latest jobs report released on Friday, which showed slowing job growth but a lower unemployment rate.
Thus, the stable Fed policy is providing further support to the US dollar, keeping USD/CAD in an uptrend. Traders will watch for further developments in trade policies and economic data for the next move in the pair.
Canada Faces Pressure as US Imposes Higher Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum
On the CAD front, the currency weakened due to rising trade tensions after US President Donald Trump increased tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to a flat 25% on Monday. This decision removes all exemptions, including special deals and exclusions for certain products.
The new tariffs will take effect on March 12, and further restrictions on microchips and vehicles may follow. The move is meant to protect US industries but has raised concerns about a potential trade war, putting pressure on the Canadian Dollar.
Canada is the biggest supplier of aluminum to the US, providing nearly 80% of its imports in 2024. In 2023, steel imports made up about 23% of US steel consumption, with Canada, Brazil, and Mexico being the top suppliers.
The increased tariffs could negatively impact Canada’s exports, reducing demand for the CAD and pushing the USD/CAD pair higher. Traders are watching closely to see how Canada responds.
Canada’s Industry Minister, Francois-Philippe Champagne, criticized the tariffs as “totally unjustified.” He highlighted that Canadian steel and aluminum are essential for key US industries like defense, shipbuilding, energy, and automotive manufacturing.
He also stated that Canada is consulting with international partners and will respond in a “clear and calibrated” manner. (edited)
USD/CAD – Technical Analysis
USD/CAD is currently trading at $1.43342, marking a slight 0.01% gain, as the pair navigates a critical price zone. The currency pair remains under bullish pressure, reflecting strength in the U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar, amid fluctuating commodity prices and macroeconomic data.
From a technical standpoint, USD/CAD is positioned above its pivot point at $1.42750, indicating the potential for further upside. If buyers maintain control, the pair could test immediate resistance at $1.43803. A breakout above this level could open the door toward $1.44394, with an extended rally targeting $1.45029, a level that has previously acted as a significant supply zone.
Conversely, key support levels are situated at $1.42193, followed by $1.41602. A drop below these levels could shift momentum in favor of sellers, with a potential move toward $1.40984, where buyers are likely to step in.
Moving averages suggest a mixed outlook. The 50-day EMA at $1.43988 remains above the current price, indicating short-term resistance. A sustained break above this level would reinforce bullish sentiment, while rejection at this zone could trigger a pullback.
Traders should monitor USD/CAD’s reaction near $1.43803. A strong close above this level could confirm further upside, while a failure to breach resistance may lead to consolidation or retracement toward lower support.
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GOLD Price Analysis – Feb 11, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold’s price (XAU/USD) surged to an intra-day high of $2,942 but struggled to maintain its gains, dropping to around $2,902. The decline is driven by shifting market sentiment and growing uncertainty over US monetary policy.
Investors are closely watching Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony to lawmakers. Powell is expected to emphasize the strength of the US economy, suggesting that the Fed is in no rush to cut interest rates. This is bearish for Gold, as higher rates make non-yielding assets like Gold less attractive.
Besides this, former US President Donald Trump has imposed a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports for all countries. China has responded with quiet retaliatory tariffs but hasn’t taken aggressive action yet. Markets remain cautious, but with no major escalation, safe-haven demand for Gold is fading.
If Powell maintains a hawkish stance, Gold could see further downside. However, any unexpected geopolitical tensions or economic slowdown could still provide support.
Strong US Dollar and Delayed Fed Rate Cuts Weigh on Gold Prices
On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar continues to rise for the fourth straight session, reaching near 108.50. This strength comes as expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts are shifting.
However, the recent Reuters poll suggests that the Fed may delay cutting interest rates until the next quarter due to rising inflation concerns. Many analysts who previously expected a rate cut in March now anticipate it happening by June, though opinions remain divided.
On the data front, the latest US jobs report showed that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by only 143,000 in January, far below December’s 307,000. However, the Unemployment Rate unexpectedly fell to 4% from 4.1%.
Initial Jobless Claims also rose to 219K, higher than expected, signaling some labor market weakness. Despite these mixed signals, Fed officials remain cautious about inflation, making them hesitant to cut rates too soon.
For Gold (XAU/USD), the strong US dollar and delayed rate-cut expectations are bearish factors. Higher interest rates make Gold less attractive compared to yield-bearing assets. If the Fed maintains a hawkish stance, Gold could face further downside pressure in the near term.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading at $2,866.29, down 0.02%, as investors assess the metal’s resilience amid shifting macroeconomic conditions. The precious metal remains in a consolidation phase, hovering near key support levels while facing resistance from recent highs.
From a technical perspective, gold’s pivot point at $2,906.72 serves as a crucial inflection level. A break above this level could reinforce bullish sentiment, leading to an upward push toward immediate resistance at $2,943.27. If momentum continues, gold could challenge $2,966.54, with a potential test of $2,990.75, marking a significant hurdle for further gains.
On the downside, immediate support sits at $2,882.03, followed by $2,859.72 and $2,833.82. A drop below $2,859.72 would signal a deeper correction, potentially exposing gold to a retest of the 50-day EMA at $2,839.99. A sustained breakdown under $2,833.82 could trigger additional selling pressure, shifting sentiment in favor of bears.
Traders should closely monitor gold’s reaction near the $2,906.72 pivot. A sustained break above this level favors continued gains, while a rejection could lead to further downside.
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- AUD/USD Price Analysis – Feb 11, 2025
AUD/USD Price Analysis – Feb 11, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair failed to stop its downward rally and remained under pressure around 0.6260 level on Tuesday. However, the decline came after former US President Donald Trump announced a 25% expansion of steel and aluminum tariffs, removing trade agreements with key allies, including Australia. The White House confirmed that all previous tax exclusions had been removed and hinted at possible new tariffs on microchips and vehicles in the coming weeks.
At the same time, the US Dollar gained strength, putting more pressure on the Australian Dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against six major currencies, continued its winning streak for the fourth straight session, climbing near 108.50. A stronger USD makes it harder for the Australian Dollar to recover, keeping the AUD/USD pair under pressure.
Strong US Dollar and Fed's Rate Cut Uncertainty Weigh on AUD/USD
On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar has been gaining strength, putting pressure on the AUD/USD pair.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, extended its winning streak for the fourth consecutive session, reaching near 108.50.
The main reason behind this strength is the growing belief that the Federal Reserve will delay interest rate cuts due to rising inflation concerns.
A recent Reuters poll showed that most economists no longer expect a rate cut in March, with many now predicting at least one cut by June. However, opinions remain divided.
The US job market data also played a role in boosting the USD. January’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed weaker job growth, adding only 143,000 jobs compared to December’s 307,000. Despite this, the Unemployment Rate dropped slightly to 4%, giving the Fed more reason to keep interest rates steady for now.
Meanwhile, US economic data continues to influence market sentiment. Initial Jobless Claims rose to 219K last week, surpassing expectations and the previous week's revised 208K.
This suggests some weakness in the labor market, but Fed officials remain cautious. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee highlighted uncertainty in economic policies, making it harder to predict inflation trends.
Fed Governor Adriana Kugler noted that the economy is still strong, but progress on inflation has been uneven. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari mentioned that he would support rate cuts only if inflation improves and the labor market remains stable. These factors keep the USD strong, weighing on the AUD/USD pair.
AUD/USD Under Pressure Amid US Tariffs and RBA Rate Cut Expectations
On the AUD front, the Australian Dollar is under pressure after former US President Donald Trump announced a 25% expansion of steel and aluminum tariffs, removing trade agreements with key allies, including Australia.
The White House confirmed that all previous import tax exclusions had been removed and hinted at possible new tariffs on microchips and vehicles.
However, Trump later mentioned that he would consider exempting Australia from the steel tariffs, citing the trade deficit between the two countries. In response, Australian Trade Minister Don Farrell stated that Australia is actively seeking an exemption, similar to the one granted in 2018.
This uncertainty in trade policies has weighed on the AUD/USD pair, as investors fear a negative impact on Australia's economy.
Meanwhile, the Australian economy is facing mixed signals. The Westpac Consumer Confidence index edged up slightly by 0.1% in February, but overall confidence remains weak due to concerns over household finances and the rising cost of living.
Moreover, traders are now expecting the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut interest rates at its next meeting, with a 95% probability of a reduction from 4.35% to 4.10%. The expectation of lower rates has pressured the AUD further.
On the global front, China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed some improvement, rising 0.5% year-on-year in January. However, it missed monthly growth expectations, adding to uncertainties, as China is Australia’s largest trading partner and a key driver of the Australian Dollar.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) is facing downward pressure, trading at $0.62745, down 0.01% over the last 24 hours. The pair remains near its pivot point at $0.62606, struggling to find directional momentum as market participants assess broader macroeconomic trends and U.S. dollar strength.
From a technical standpoint, immediate resistance is located at $0.63014, followed by $0.63303 and $0.63612. A break above $0.63014 could spark further upside, especially if buying pressure builds above the 50-day EMA at $0.62422. A decisive close above $0.63303 would indicate a shift toward bullish sentiment, paving the way for a recovery.
On the downside, immediate support sits at $0.62322, with additional cushions at $0.62043 and $0.61711. A drop below $0.62322 may trigger increased selling pressure, potentially pushing AUD/USD toward the lower supports. If the pair breaks below $0.62043, it could signal a deeper correction.
Traders should watch for a break above $0.63014 to confirm bullish sentiment. However, failure to hold above $0.62606 could shift momentum back in favor of sellers, leading to a potential test of lower support levels.
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GBP/USD Price Analysis – Feb 10, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair sustained its bullish trend and remained higher around the 1.2419 level, hitting an intra-day high of 1.2422.
However, the reason for this upward trend can be attributed to the strong performance of the British Pound, which gained traction despite the bullish US Dollar.
Normally, a stronger US Dollar puts pressure on GBP/USD, but this time, the Pound showed resilience and even outperformed many other major currencies.
This strength in the Pound comes as investors digest the Bank of England’s (BoE) recent policy stance. The BoE has adopted a more cautious or “dovish” approach, signaling that interest rate cuts could come sooner than expected. At the same time, the central bank lowered its economic growth forecasts for the year.
Despite this, the Pound continues to hold strong, possibly because the market had already priced in these concerns, and investors are now focusing on other factors influencing GBP’s movement.
BoE’s Cautious Stance and Economic Outlook Impact on GBP/USD
On the BoE front, the Pound Sterling has been performing well against its major peers as investors focus on the Bank of England’s (BoE) recent stance. Last week, the BoE lowered interest rates by 0.25% to 4.5%.
BoE Governor Andrew Bailey mentioned that the outlook for monetary policy would be "gradual and cautious," with expectations that inflation in the UK could rise to 3.7% in the third quarter due to higher energy prices, before returning to the target of 2%.
Despite this, investors were surprised by a vote from BoE member Catherine Mann, who called for a larger 0.5% rate cut, signaling a more dovish stance on policy. This shift in tone raised concerns about the UK’s economic outlook, especially as the BoE also reduced its GDP growth forecast for the year to just 0.75%.
Besides this, the comments from BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill emphasized strong wage growth as a reason for caution in cutting rates further. He noted that wages increased by 5.6% in the three months ending November, the highest since June 2024.
Therefore, the BoE’s cautious stance and reduced GDP forecasts create uncertainty, limiting GBP/USD gains. However, strong wage growth supports the Pound. If Andrew Bailey signals further rate cuts in his speech, GBP/USD could weaken, but any hawkish tone may boost the pair.
GBP/USD – Technical Analysis
The GBP/USD pair is trading at $1.24049, down 0.02%, as the market consolidates following recent fluctuations. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.24290 is acting as a resistance level, restricting bullish momentum while the pair struggles to maintain its footing above the pivot point at $1.23668.
With the U.S. dollar showing strength amid shifting macroeconomic conditions, GBP/USD remains vulnerable to further downside pressure.
The pivot point at $1.23668 is a crucial marker for trend direction. Holding above this level keeps the bullish bias intact, with immediate resistance at $1.24599, followed by $1.25374 and $1.25987.
A decisive break above these levels could open the door for a sustained upward move, particularly if market sentiment shifts in favor of the British pound.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at $1.23048, with further weakness potentially extending declines toward $1.22507 and $1.21903.
A failure to defend these levels could accelerate selling pressure, leading to deeper losses. However, a successful hold above $1.23668 may attract buyers, positioning GBP/USD for a possible rebound.
Traders considering a long position should look for entries above $1.23676, targeting $1.24422, with a stop loss at $1.23225 to manage risk effectively. If GBP/USD fails to sustain above the pivot, sellers may take control, driving the pair lower in the short term.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis – Feb 10, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair has been flashing green, staying in a bullish range around 1.0329, with an intraday high of 1.0337.
However, it opened lower near 1.0280 due to renewed concerns over tariffs from former US President Donald Trump, which pushed investors toward safe-haven assets like the US dollar.
Despite expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates steady at 4.25%-4.50% for the rest of the year, the US dollar struggled to maintain its gains.
This allowed the EUR/USD pair to recover, as traders saw an opportunity to buy the euro at lower levels. The market remains focused on upcoming economic data and Fed policy signals, which will play a key role in determining the next move for the currency pair.
EUR/USD Gains as US Dollar Weakens Amid Fed Rate Outlook and Job Data
On the US front, the shared currency has been gaining strength as the US dollar weakens, even though the Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% for the rest of the year.
Experts at Macquarie now believe the Fed will not make any rate cuts in 2025, changing their previous forecast, which predicted a 25 basis points (bps) cut in March or May. This shift comes after the latest US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for January, which showed stronger job growth than initially expected.
On the data front, the NFP report revealed that the US added 143,000 jobs in January, lower than December’s revised figure of 307,000.
However, analysts noted that recent job data revisions suggest an even stronger labor market trend. Meanwhile, the US unemployment rate dropped slightly to 4% from the previous 4.1%, and wages grew faster than expected, with average hourly earnings increasing by 4.1% annually and 0.5% monthly.
All eyes will be on key US economic data. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for January, set for release on Wednesday, will be a major driver for the US dollar.
Meanwhile, investors will closely watch Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday for insights into future monetary policy.
Euro Struggles Amid US Tariff Threats and ECB Rate Cut Expectations
On the EUR front, the Euro is under pressure due to recent developments in the US. President Trump threatened to impose 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, targeting countries like Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Vietnam, and South Korea. The biggest impact will be on Canada, the largest exporter of aluminum to the US.
The fear is that these tariff actions could lead to reciprocal tariffs from the Eurozone, which already imposes a 10% tariff on US car imports, making it more challenging for the Euro to strengthen against the US dollar.
However, the Euro is already facing challenges due to economic slowdowns in the Eurozone and inflation rates falling short of the European Central Bank's (ECB) 2% target. Analysts at Macquarie have warned that US tariffs could escalate tensions in Europe, further weakening the Euro.
Furthermore, the ECB is expected to continue lowering interest rates, with some policymakers even suggesting the possibility of going below the neutral rate to stimulate the economy. The ECB's neutral rate is predicted to be between 1.75% and 2.25%, which adds to concerns for the Euro’s future performance.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.03197, down 0.01%, as it consolidates within a narrow range following recent volatility.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.03680 remains a key resistance level, capping upside momentum and reinforcing the broader bearish sentiment. The currency pair remains under pressure, with traders closely monitoring key support and resistance levels to gauge potential breakouts.
The pivot point at $1.02986 serves as an essential level—staying above it keeps bullish momentum in play, while a break below could invite increased selling pressure.
Immediate resistance stands at $1.03520, followed by $1.04092 and $1.04415. A breakout above these levels could signal a shift toward a stronger bullish trend, particularly if the U.S. dollar weakens amid shifting macroeconomic conditions.
On the downside, immediate support is at $1.02467, with further declines targeting $1.02097 and $1.01740. A drop below these levels could intensify selling pressure, reinforcing the prevailing downtrend. However, if EUR/USD maintains strength above $1.02986, buyers could regain control, pushing the pair higher in the short term.
Traders should watch for a potential long position above $1.02986, with a target of $1.03520 and a stop loss at $1.02652. A confirmed break above resistance could lead to extended gains, while a failure to hold support may trigger deeper losses.
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GOLD Price Analysis – Feb 10, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold price (XAU/USD) extended its strong bullish rally and hit an all-time high of $2,900. However, the main reason behind this surge could be growing uncertainty in global markets after US President Donald Trump announced new trade measures. He stated that he would introduce "reciprocal tariffs" on multiple countries by Tuesday or Wednesday.
Moreover, he mentioned a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports into the US but did not specify the exact timeline. These announcements have fueled concerns about global trade tensions, pushing investors toward safe-haven assets like gold.
Moving ahead, traders are now focusing on Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming testimony on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Powell is expected to emphasize the strength of the US economy, suggesting that the central bank is in no rush to cut interest rates. This could be a negative factor for gold, as lower interest rates generally boost gold prices by making it more attractive compared to interest-bearing assets.
Gold Remains Strong Amid US Dollar Surge and Market Uncertainty
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has been gaining strength, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) rising above 108.00. This surge comes after the Federal Reserve (Fed) signaled that it might keep interest rates steady this year. The decision follows January’s jobs report, which showed slower job growth but a lower unemployment rate.
On the data front, US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 143,000 in January, much lower than December’s 307,000, but the unemployment rate dropped slightly to 4%. Higher-than-expected jobless claims also added some uncertainty to the labor market outlook.
Meanwhile, several Fed officials have shared mixed views on the economy. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee warned that inconsistent government policies create uncertainty, making it difficult for the Fed to predict inflation trends.
However, Fed Governor Adriana Kugler noted that the US economy remains strong overall, though inflation progress has been uneven. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said he would support rate cuts if inflation continues to improve and the labor market remains solid.
On the flip side, China’s inflation data also grabbed attention. The country’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.5% annually in January, higher than December’s 0.1% increase, while producer prices continued to decline.
These developments have added to market uncertainty, keeping gold prices elevated as investors seek safe-haven assets amid global economic concerns.
Therefore, the strong US dollar and steady Fed policy typically pressure gold, but market uncertainty, trade tensions, and China’s inflation data are fueling safe-haven demand. Despite dollar strength, gold remains higher as investors hedge against economic risks and potential future policy shifts.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,878.06, down 0.02%, as it consolidates within a tight range following recent gains.
Despite the minor pullback, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,821.70 continues to act as a dynamic support level, reinforcing the broader bullish structure. The metal remains in an uptrend, with price action favoring further upside if key resistance levels are breached.
The pivot point at $2,870.28 serves as an essential reference level—holding above it keeps bullish momentum intact.
The immediate resistance sits at $2,886.25, with stronger hurdles at $2,900.69 and $2,914.05. A breakout beyond these levels could accelerate gains toward fresh highs, particularly if market sentiment remains risk-averse amid ongoing economic uncertainties.
On the downside, support is firm at $2,849.52, with deeper retracements targeting $2,833.82 and $2,820.54. A sustained drop below these levels would shift momentum in favor of sellers, potentially exposing gold to further declines.
However, given the prevailing demand for safe-haven assets, dips are likely to attract fresh buying interest.
Traders should monitor the $2,872 level, as holding above this threshold could validate a continuation toward $2,890, while a drop below $2,857 may trigger increased selling pressure.
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GOLD Price Analysis – Feb 07, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) continues its bullish momentum, trading around $2,860 after hitting an intraday high of $2,870. The key driver behind this surge is the escalating tension between the US and China, which has sparked concerns among investors about the economic impact of President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policies.
Furthermore, expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain its easing stance have kept US Treasury bond yields low, weakening the US dollar. Thus, the weaker dollar makes gold more attractive for investors, further fueling its price rally.
Looking ahead, all eyes are on the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which could determine gold’s next move. If the data is weaker than expected, it could strengthen the case for Fed rate cuts, further supporting gold prices. Conversely, stronger-than-expected job data might boost the dollar and put some pressure on gold.
US Job Market Weakness Fuels Gold's Rally Amid Fed Rate Cut Speculation
Recent US data shows that jobless claims rose to 219K from 208K, signaling a weaker job market. This has increased expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates. Lower rates make non-yielding assets like gold more attractive to investors.
Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Trump administration is more focused on lowering 10-year Treasury yields than on the Fed’s rate decisions. As a result, bond yields have dropped to their lowest levels since December, further supporting gold prices.
However, Federal Reserve officials are divided. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee is not too worried about inflation, while Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan believes the job market is still strong, making rate cuts less likely for now. Despite this, the US dollar has struggled to gain strength, helping gold hold onto its gains.
Now, all eyes are on the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. If job growth slows, gold could rise further. But a strong report might boost the dollar and push gold prices lower.
Gold Prices Surge as US-China Trade War Escalates
Apart from this, China recently imposed new tariffs on select US goods in response to President Trump’s 10% tax on Chinese imports. This move has intensified trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies, raising fears of a prolonged economic conflict.
As a result, investors are shifting towards safe-haven assets like gold to protect their wealth. The uncertainty surrounding global trade policies is causing market volatility, and many fear that prolonged tensions could hurt economic growth and business stability worldwide.
Moving forward, traders will closely monitor trade developments. If tensions escalate further, gold prices may continue to rise. However, any signs of a resolution could ease market fears and limit gold’s gains. For now, gold remains well-supported by global uncertainty and shifting investor sentiment.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,862.60, up 0.24%, as the market weighs economic uncertainty and potential Federal Reserve policy shifts. Gold remains supported by safe-haven demand amid ongoing trade tensions and expectations of rate cuts, but technical indicators suggest a pivotal level is in play.
Key Technical Levels and Trend Analysis
The pivot point at $2,870.28 serves as a critical threshold for price action. A sustained break below this level could open the door for further downside toward $2,840.79, followed by stronger support at $2,824.53 and $2,810.70. These levels could attract buyers if broader risk sentiment turns defensive.
On the upside, immediate resistance stands at $2,882.76, with the next hurdles at $2,900.69 and $2,914.05. A close above these resistance levels would reinforce bullish momentum, potentially setting the stage for a push toward new highs.
The 50-day EMA at $2,843.26 suggests that gold remains well-supported in its current trend. However, the price is teetering around the pivot, indicating potential for short-term consolidation. If gold fails to hold $2,870, selling pressure could accelerate, leading to a sharper pullback.
The near-term outlook remains bearish below $2,870, with a recommended sell entry below this level, targeting $2,850 as a take-profit zone. A stop-loss at $2,882 is advised to mitigate risk in case of an upside breakout.
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- EUR/USD Price Analysis – Feb 07, 2025
EUR/USD Price Analysis – Feb 07, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
EUR/USD is trading flat around 1.0400 in the European session ahead of the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report at 13:30 GMT. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is down 0.10% at 107.60.
Economists expect the U.S. to have added 170K jobs in January, down from 256K in December. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1%, which should keep the Federal Reserve (Fed) on hold for the near term. A strong jobs number will support the Fed’s stance, while a weak one could spark speculation on earlier rate cuts.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are pricing in the first rate cut in June 2025. However, if the jobs report shows a softening labor market, expectations for a May rate cut could rise.
The Average Hourly Earnings data is also in focus, a key measure of wage growth and consumer spending power. Analysts predict year-over-year wage growth to slow to 3.8% from 3.9% in December, while monthly earnings to rise 0.3% in line with previous reports.
Eurozone Faces Uncertainty Amid U.S. Trade Threats
Despite EUR/USD being flat, the Euro is vulnerable to trade policy risks. Over the weekend, U.S. President Donald Trump said the Eurozone could face tariffs if they don’t buy enough American goods, escalating tensions between the two blocs.
Analysts at Macquarie noted that Trump didn’t specify the measures, but Europe is a “target-rich” zone for tariffs, especially with Germany and France in political turmoil. Any tariff escalation could hit Eurozone exports hard and growth.
Beyond trade risks, the Eurozone’s domestic economy is fragile. Concerns of stagnation have kept the European Central Bank (ECB) dovish. ECB board member Piero Cipolloni said on Thursday that there is “room to cut rates” and growth risks.
If Trump’s tariffs materialize, Cipolloni warned it could weaken the Eurozone economy. And if the U.S. imposes tariffs on Chinese goods, China could shift excess supply to European markets and create deflationary pressures.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.03746, down 0.08%, as the euro struggles to gain traction against a resilient U.S. dollar. Market sentiment remains cautious ahead of key economic data, with traders assessing the Federal Reserve’s rate trajectory and broader macroeconomic trends.
The pivot point at $1.03879 is a critical threshold for price action. If EUR/USD remains below this level, downside pressure is likely to persist. Immediate support is at $1.03383, with further declines potentially testing $1.02920 and $1.02467. A break below these levels would reinforce the bearish trend, increasing selling momentum.
On the upside, immediate resistance stands at $1.04339, followed by $1.04780 and $1.05222. If the pair manages to reclaim $1.03879, it could gain bullish traction, targeting these resistance levels. However, the broader trend remains weak, with selling pressure dominant below the pivot.
The 50-day EMA at $1.03549 suggests that EUR/USD is trading below key moving averages, reinforcing a bearish outlook. Short-term sentiment remains negative, with the pair struggling to gain upside momentum. If price action remains under $1.03879, further weakness is expected.
EUR/USD remains bearish below $1.03874, with a recommended sell entry at this level, targeting $1.03372 as a take-profit zone. A stop-loss at $1.04176 is advised to mitigate risk in case of a bullish reversal.
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S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis – Feb 07, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
The S&P 500 rose 0.3% on Thursday, its third straight gain, while the Nasdaq Composite added 0.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 125 points (-0.30%) as investors were cautious before the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.
Weekly jobless claims came in at 219,000, slightly above the 214,000 expected, indicating a mild slowdown in the labor market. While private payrolls grew in January, job openings saw the largest decline in 14 months, which may delay rate cuts until at least June 2025.
Tech Stocks Face Pressure Amid AI Investment Concerns
Earnings reports were in focus with Amazon (AMZN) to report after the close. Investors were keen on the company’s AI investment plans following capital expenditure concerns among Big Tech. Alphabet (GOOG) was sold off after its 2025 outlook exceeded Wall Street estimates.
Meanwhile Eli Lilly (LLY) rose 3% on strong Zepbound demand and Yum! Brands (YUM) jumped 9% on Taco Bell sales. Ford (F) fell 7% after profit guidance missed estimates and uncertainty over US, Canada and Mexico trade talks.
Chip Stocks Slide Ahead of Key Economic Data
The semiconductor sector was under pressure with Qualcomm (QCOM) down 3% after patent licensing outlook disappointing after the Huawei contract expired. Arm Holdings (ARM) fell 3% after missing high expectations for AI-driven growth and Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) plunged 24% after warning of reduced Apple (AAPL) demand for iPhone 17.
Now investors are looking to Friday’s NFP report which is expected to show 169,000 new jobs, down from 256,000 in December. A weaker print may support rate cuts later in the year while a stronger print may mean higher for longer rates and keep markets on edge.
S&P 500 – Technical Analysis
The S&P 500 (SPX) is trading at 6083.56, up 0.36%, as the index continues its bullish momentum amid strong investor confidence. With market participants weighing Federal Reserve policy expectations and earnings results, the broader trend remains constructive.
The pivot point at 6057.69 is a key reference level for traders. A sustained move above this level strengthens the bullish outlook, with immediate resistance at 6127.64, followed by 6171.70 and 6219.27. If momentum persists, the index could target fresh highs, reinforcing optimism in equity markets.
On the downside, support lies at 6013.62, followed by 5969.55 and 5904.50. A break below these levels would signal weakness, potentially triggering a short-term pullback. However, strong buying interest near the pivot suggests continued resilience in the broader trend.
The 50-day EMA at 6057.18 acts as dynamic support, confirming the index's uptrend. As long as the price remains above this level, the bullish bias stays intact. A close below it could indicate a loss of momentum, bringing 6013.62 into focus as key support.
S&P 500 remains bullish above 6058, with a suggested buy entry at this level, targeting 6127 as a take-profit zone. A stop-loss at 6013 is recommended to manage downside risks.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis – Feb 06, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair continued its downward movement, staying around the 0.6259 level and hitting an intra-day low of 0.6255. The main reason for this decline can be traced to a few key factors.
First, the Australian Dollar (AUD) came under pressure due to weaker-than-expected Trade Balance data released earlier in the week. This news highlighted that Australia's exports were lower than anticipated, which caused the AUD to lose some strength against the US Dollar (USD).
Second, the ongoing tensions between the US and China over trade issues also contributed to a "risk-off" sentiment in the market. Traders are worried about the potential impact of these trade disputes, which is making them more cautious and pushing the AUD lower.
Lastly, although the US Dollar Index (DXY) was relatively steady at around 107.50, the weaker-than-expected US Services PMI data might have put some downward pressure on the USD.
Despite this, the overall market sentiment remains cautious, which continues to favor the US Dollar, contributing to the Australian Dollar’s struggles.
AUD/USD Under Pressure Amid Weaker Trade Data and US-China Tensions
On the AUD front, the Australian Dollar (AUD) dropped against the US Dollar (USD) after weaker-than-expected Trade Balance data was released on Thursday. Australia's trade surplus for December fell to 5,085 million AUD, missing the expected 7,000 million AUD and lower than the previous month's surplus of 6,792 million AUD.
Although exports increased by 1.1%, they slowed from November’s 4.2% rise. Meanwhile, imports surged by 5.9%, up from 1.4% in the previous month. This weaker trade data contributed to the AUD's decline.
Moreover, the ongoing US-China trade tensions added to the downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair. China responded to new US tariffs with its own set of tariffs, including a 15% levy on US coal and LNG imports and a 10% tariff on US crude oil, farm equipment, and certain automobiles.
These escalating trade disputes are causing uncertainty, especially for Australia, as China is a key trading partner. Traders are closely monitoring the situation, fearing that further tensions could hurt global trade and economic growth.
Despite the trade concerns, Australia’s private sector showed some growth in January, with the Judo Bank Composite PMI rising to 51.1 from 50.2, indicating modest expansion. The Services PMI also climbed to 51.2, marking its twelfth consecutive month of growth. While the overall growth was moderate, it provided some positive news for the Australian economy. However, the combination of trade data and global risks kept the AUD under pressure.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
The AUD/USD pair is trading at $0.62631, down 0.33%, reflecting sustained bearish sentiment amid broader market weakness. The pair remains under pressure below the pivot point at $0.62917, signaling a potential continuation of the downtrend unless buyers regain control.
Immediate resistance stands at $0.63262, followed by $0.63556 and $0.63858, which align with previous price rejections. A breakout above these levels could trigger renewed bullish momentum, potentially shifting sentiment. However, given the current price action, upward movement appears constrained.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at $0.62417, with additional safety nets at $0.62061 and $0.61697. A decisive break below $0.62417 could intensify selling pressure, exposing the pair to further declines.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.62218 is in close proximity to support, making it a critical level for short-term traders. A bounce from this area may indicate temporary stabilization, but sustained trading below the pivot point at $0.62917 favors the bearish outlook.
From a strategic standpoint, a sell position below $0.62915 is preferred, with a take profit target at $0.62417 and a stop loss at $0.63255 to mitigate risk. Traders should monitor price action near the 50 EMA and support levels to assess potential reversal signs.
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